Big 12 Betting Picks: Texas Tech Red Raiders at Baylor Bears

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Baylor Bears
Saturday, February 9, 2013, 4:00 pm Eastern, TV: Big 12 Network, Yes, Altitude
Ferrell Center – Waco, Texas

Opening Line: Baylor -18
Current Line: Baylor -17
Opening Total: 131 1/2
Current Total: 142
Opening Money Line: Baylor -2500 / Texas Tech +1400
Current Money Line: Baylor -2500 / Texas Tech +1400

Baylor is a heavy favorite Saturday against Texas Tech in Big 12 action. Both teams have lost 3 straight games.
Baylor is a heavy favorite Saturday against Texas Tech in Big 12 action. Both teams have lost 3 straight games.

The 14-8 Baylor Bears have lost 3 straight games in the Big 12 to fall to 5-4. They look to get on track against the 9-11 Texas Tech Red Raiders who are 2-7 in the Big 12. Baylor is tied with Oklahoma at 5-4 for third in the conference behind 7-2 Kansas and Kansas St. The Oklahoma St Cowboys and Iowa St Cyclones are tied for second at 6-3. Texas Tech has also lost 3 straight games and 7 of their last 8. They are tied with Texas at 2-7, ahead of only 1-8 TCU in the Big 12.

Texas Tech leads the series 74-50 against Baylor, but the Bears have won 6 of the last 7 games in the series. Baylor destroyed Texas Tech earlier this season in Lubbock 82-48. Baylor is 31-26 all time in Waco against Texas Tech.

Texas Tech is led interim coach Chris Walker. Walker became the head coach when Billy Gillespie had to step down for health reasons just before the season started. The Red Raiders have home losses to Arizona, McNeese St, Alabama, Arizona St, Kansas, West Virginia, and Kansas St 68-59 Tuesday, along with road losses at Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, and Texas. Texas Tech has key wins at TCU and at home against Iowa St. The other Tech wins are all over inferior teams. Texas Tech is 6-7 ATS and the total is 3-7 this season.

Texas Tech is being outscored 70-67 this season. The Red Raiders are shooting 42.8% from the field and 27% from 3 point range. Tech is #339 out of 347 teams in three point shooting. The Red Raiders make 69.2% of their free throws. Texas Tech averages 34 rebounds per game, and give up 30.3 rebounds per game. Rex Raider opponents are shooting 45% from the field and 37.1% from 3 point range. Texas Tech averages 11 assists, 9 steals, 4 blocks, and 14 turnovers.

Forward Jaye Crockett averages 12.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per game. Forward Jordan Tolbert averages 9.6 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 1 block per game. Guard Josh Gray averages 9.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 2.1 steals. Forward Dejan Kravic averages 9.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, and 1.1 assists per game. Dusty hannahs averages 6.1 points per game. Daylen Robinson, Jamal Williams, Jr., Todrick Gotcher and Ty Nurse also get significant minutes in the rotation. Forward Aaron Ross is out for the season with a knee injury. Trency Jackson is out for the season due to being ineligible. He averaged 6.6 points a game.

Baylor is coached by Scott Drew. The Bears have losses to Colorado in a tournament in Charleston, home losses to College of Charleston, Northwestern, and Oklahoma and at Gonzaga, Kansas, Iowa St, and Oklahoma St Wednesday 69-67 in overtime. Baylor has key wins over Boston College and St. Joseph’s in Charleston, at Kentucky, Texas Tech, and TCU, and home wins against BYU, Texas, TCU and Oklahoma St. Baylor is 8-8 ATS and the total is 8-9 this season.

Baylor is outscoring teams 75-64. They are #34 in scoring. The Bears are shooting 45.3% from the field and 34.6% from 3 point range. The Bears make 67.6% of their free throws. Baylor averages 39.4 rebounds per game and give up 31.8 per game. The Bears are #21 in rebounding. Baylor opponents are shooting 40.3% from the field and 29.2% from 3 point range. The Bears are #23 in 3 point defense nationally. The Bears average 15 assists, 7 steals, 4 blocks and 13 turnovers per game.

Baylor guard Pierre Jackson averages 19.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, 6 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. Center Isaiah Austin averages 14.1 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 1.4 blocks per game.  Forward Cory Jefferson averages 12.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game. Guard Brady Heslip averages 8.3 points and 1.4 rebounds per game. Guard A.J. Walton averages  7.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.9 steals per game. Rico Gathers, Gary Franklin, and Deuce Bello make up the rest of the rotation.

Texas Tech is 5-11 ATS against Big 12 teams, 2-6 in Saturday games, 1-8 in road games, and against teams with winning home records, and 1-11 after a cover. The over is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 in this series, including 5-2 in Waco.

Baylor is 7-2 ATS after a straight up loss, 15-5 against teams with losing records, 5-11 at home against teams with losing road records, 6-20 after a cover, 2-7 at home, and 3-12 in Saturday games. The Bears are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 against the Red Raiders, and were favored in each of those games. Baylor is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 in Waco against Texas Tech.

While both of these teams have lost 3 straight games, Baylor has lost their games by a total of 13 points. The 9 point loss for Texas Tech against Kansas St was the first loss in conference that wasn’t by double figures. The last time these two teams played Baylor ran them off the floor and destroyed them by 34 points. Baylor might not do that again, but they do end their slump by winning handily against a Red Raider team that is in disarray.

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