Big 12 Betting Picks: Kansas State Wildcats at Iowa State Cyclones

#5 Kansas State Wildcats at #25 Iowa State Cyclones
Saturday, October 13, 2012, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: FX
Jack Trice Stadium – Ames, Iowa
Opening Line: Kansas St -6 1/2
Current Line: Kansas St -6 1/2
Opening Total: 50
Current Total: 47 1/2
Opening Money Line: KSU -250 / ISU +210
Current Money Line: KSU -250 / ISU +210

Kansas St is a 6.5 point road favorite at Iowa St Saturday. It is the 96th meeting between the schools.

The #5 Kansas St Wildcats and #25 Iowa St Cyclones meet for the 96th time Saturday in Ames. Iowa St leads the series 49-42-4, but Kansas St is 18-4 since 1990. The Wildcats have won 4 straight against the Cyclones, including 30-23 last year in Manhattan.

Kansas St is coached by Bill Snyder. The Wildcats are 5-0 with home wins over Missouri St 51-9, Miami-(FL) 52-13, North Texas 35-21, and last week against Kansas 56-16. K-State also beat then #6 Oklahoma 24-19 in Norman a few weeks ago. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS and the total is 3-1. They were a 24.5 point favorite in the Kansas game and the total was 56.5.

Kansas St is averaging 440.2 yards per game, including 177.4 passing yards and 262.8 rushing yards per game. The Wildcats are outscoring teams 43.6-15.6 this season. K-State is in the top 11 nationally in rushing and scoring offense. The Wildcats are +10 in turnovers for the season. Kansas St is 28/51 on third and fourth down conversions, and 23/27 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns. The Wildcats have only allowed 2 sacks this season, which is remarkable when you consider how much quarterback Collin Klein runs with the ball. Kansas St is allowing 361.4 yards per game on defense including 252.8 passing yards and 108.6 rushing yards. Kansas St has struggled to stop the pass, but they are in the top 25 nationally against the run and in points allowed. Wildcat opponents are 32/80 on third and fourth down conversions, and 15/20 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns. K-State has 14 sacks this season.

Kansas St quarterback Collin Klein has completed 63 of 94 passes (67%) for 887 yards with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He is also the second leading rusher with 73 carries, 405 yards and 7 touchdowns. Running back John Hubert has 76 carries, 527 yards, and 8 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 29 yards. Back-up quarterback Daniel Sams has 20 carries, 194 yards and 3 touchdowns. ReceiverĀ Tramaine Thompson has 16 catches, 260 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Chris Harper has 15 catches, 207 yards, and a touchdown. Tyler Lockett has 11 catches and 142 yards.

Iowa St is 4-1 under coach Paul Rhoads. The Cyclones are ranked in the Coaches’ Poll for the first time in almost 10 years. Iowa St has home wins over Tulsa 38-23 and Western Illinois along with road wins over Iowa 9-6 and last week at then #15 TCU 37-23. The Horned Frogs were playing without quarterback Casey Pachall who was suspended after a DUI arrest last week. The only loss for Iowa St came at home 24-13 to Texas Tech. The Cyclones are 3-2 ATS and the total is 2-2 this season. Iowa St was a 7 point underdog last week at TCU and the total was 41.

Iowa St is averaging 365.2 yards per game on offense, including 206.6 passing yards and 158.6 rushing yards. The Cyclones are outscoring teams 26.8-15.8 this season. On defense, Iowa St is allowing 338 yards per game, including 222.2 passing yards and 115.8 rushing yards. Iowa St has forced 12 turnovers, but has given up 13 of their own. The Cyclones have forced 11 sacks and has allowed 9. Iowa St is 31/76 on third and fourth down conversions, and 13/17 scoring in the red zone. Cyclone opponents are 32/95 on third and fourth downs, and 12/14 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns.

Iowa St quarterback Jared Barnett made his first start of the season last week at TCU. Barnett took over from Steele Jantz who wasn’t injured but benched for throwing too many interceptions. Jantz has completed 85/127 passes (66.9%) for 804 yards with 7 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Jantz also has 54 carries, 85 yards and a touchdown. Barnett is 16/30 passing (53.2%) for 214 yards with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 12 catches for 45 yards. Barnett will get the start again, but both could see action. Running back James White has 48 carries for 264 yards with 2 touchdowns, along with 14 catches for 119 yards. Shontrelle Johnson has 49 carries, 229 yards and a touchdown, along with 4 catches for 17 yards. Receiver Josh Lenz has 18 catches, 279 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Chris Young has 14 catches, 159 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Aaron Horne has 17 catches, 148 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ernst Brun, Jr. has 7 catches for 71 yards but has 3 touchdowns.

Kansas St is 6-1 ATS in road games, 11-2 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 10-2 in road games against teams with winning home records, 5-1 in October, 4-1 overall, 7-2 after allowing less than 20 points, 20-7 in Big 12 games, 10-4 after a straight up win, 5-2 against teams with winning records, and on grass, 9-4 after scoring more than 40 points, 41-20 after a win by 20 points or more, and 49-24-1 after passing for less than 170 total yards.

Iowa St is 4-1 ATS in Big 12 games, and 7-3 against teams with winning records. The underdog is 4-1 ATS recently in this series, and 4 of the last 5 games played in Ames have gone under the total. The last 4 games in this series have been decided by 8 points or less, all KSU wins.

After emotional wins at Oklahoma and against Sunflower rival Kansas, this could be a potential letdown game, as the Wildcats have a showdown with top 10 West Virginia next week with first place in the Big 12 likely on the line. Kansas St shouldn’tĀ  overlook Iowa St though, because the Cyclones are off to their best start in ten years. Also, Iowa St has a history of pulling off upsets at home in the Rhoads era. Just ask Oklahoma St who came into Ames last year as the #2 ranked team in the country with an undefeated record, but left with their only loss of the season. Snyder is too good a coach to let the Wildcats get c0mplacent. I think Kansas St wins, but it will be a close game.

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