Big 12 Betting Picks: Baylor Bears at Oklahoma Sooners

#7 Baylor Bears at Oklahoma Sooners
Lloyd Noble Center – Norman, Oklahoma
Tuesday, January 24, 2012, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: YES, Altitude
Opening Line: Baylor -5 1/2
Current Line: Baylor -6 1/2
Opening Total: 143
Current Total: 143 1/2
Opening Money Line: Baylor -240 / Oklahoma +200
Current Money Line: Baylor -260 / Oklahoma +220

Quincy Acy and Baylor look to rebound after two straight losses as they travel to Oklahoma in Big 12 action Tuesday. The Bears are 5 1/2 point favorites on the road.

After starting off 17-0 The Baylor Bears have lost two games in a row at Kansas  and at home to Missouri 89-88 last week. Both Kansas and Missouri are both currently ranked in the top 5 in the country. Baylor dropped to #6/7 in the polls and tries to rebound as they travel to Norman to take on the 12-6 Oklahoma Sooners. Baylor is 4-2 in conference, and Oklahoma is 2-4. Oklahoma has dominated the series against Baylor 37-8, including 18-3 in Norman. Oklahoma beat Baylor 2 out of the 3 times they played last year including 84-67 in the Big 12 tournament last year in Kansas City.

Baylor is coached by Scott Drew. The Bears have ins over San Diego St, Northwestern, BYU, St. Mary’s & West Virginia in a tournament in Las Vegas, Mississippi St, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Kansas St, and Oklahoma St. The 17-2 record is the best start in school history.

Oklahoma is coached by Lon Kruger. The Sooners have losses to Saint Louis, Cincinnati, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma St, and Saturday at Texas A&M 81-75 in overtime. Oklahoma has wins over Washington St, Santa Clara, Oral Roberts, Arkansas, Houston, Kansas St, and Texas Tech.

Baylor is outscoring opponents 78-63 this season. The Bears are shooting 49.3% from the field, including 41% from 3 point range. Baylor is in the top 10 nationally in both categories.  Baylor makes 73.4% from the free throw line. The Bears average 37.4 rebounds a game, and have a rebounding margin of +5.1. Baylor averages 16.4 assists, 15.1 turnovers, 9 steals, and 6.3 blocks a game. Baylor opponents are shooting 39.2% from the field, including 32.8% from 3 point range. The Bears force 16.5 turnovers a game on defense.

Baylor has 5 players averaging double digit scoring. Perry Jones III averages 13.7 points, 7.2 rebounds to lead the team, 1.1 assists, and 1 steal a game. Quincy Miller averages 12.9 points, 5 rebounds, and 1.7 assists a game. Miller is shooting 40.5% from 3 point range. Quincy Acy averages 12.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.1 steal, and 2.4 blocks a game to lead the team.  Pierre Jackson averages 12.6 points, 3 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 1.9 steals a game to lead the team in the latter two categories. He is shooting 49.3% from 3 point range. Brady Heslip averages 10.1 points, 1.4 rebounds, and 1.4 assists a game. He makes 46.9% of his three point shots.

Oklahoma is outscoring opponents 73-67 this season. The Sooners are shooting 43.9% from the field, including 37.1% from 3 point range. Oklahoma makes 74.3% of their free throws. Oklahoma averages 39.2 rebounds a game, and have a rebounding margin of +5.1. Oklahoma averages 13.9 assists, 12.7 turnovers, 3.7 blocks, and 6.9 steals a game. Sooner opponents are shooting 41.5% from the field including 32.7% from 3 point range. Oklahoma forces 14.6 turnovers a game.

Oklahoma guard Steven Pledger averages 17.2 points, 4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.1 steals a game. Pledger leads the Sooners in scoring, and is shooting 43.6% from 3 point range. Calvin Newell Jr. was the third leading scorer but left the program in early December. Andrew Fitzgerald averages 13.3 points, and 5.6 rebounds a game. Romero Osby averages 11.9 points, 8.1 rebounds to lead the team, and 1.1 block a game to lead the team. Cameron Clark averages 8.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 1.6 assists. Sam Grooms averages 5.4 assists to lead the team. Carl Blair leads the Sooners in steals with 1.4 a game.

Oklahoma is 6-8 against the spread and the total is 7-7 this season. Baylor is 6-6 ATS and the total is 8-4 this season. Oklahoma is 10-3-1 ATS recently against Baylor, including 5-2 in Norman. Four of the last five games have gone over the total, 6 of the last 7 played in Norman have gone over as well. The Bears are 2-6  ATS against teams with winning records, and overall, 2-7 in Big 12 games, 1-4 after a straight up loss, 1-5 as a favorite, 1-6 after failing to cover, and 0-4 as a road favorite. The Sooners are 5-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less, 4-1 as a home underdog, 7-15 after a straight up loss, 2-5 at home against teams with winning road records, 7-20 in Tuesday games, 1-4 against teams with winning records, and as an underdog, 1-5 overall, and 1-6 in Big 12 games.

Oklahoma has played a lot better than expected under Kruger, as they were projected to be one of the worst teams in the conference. However, they don’t have the talent to play with an angry Baylor team coming off two losses in a row. I like the Bears to win convincingly.

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