Big 12 Basketball Picks: Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers

Texas Longhorns at #9 Missouri Tigers
Mizzou Arena – Columbia, Missouri
Saturday, January 14, 2012, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Missouri -9 1/2
Current Line: Missouri -10
Opening Total: 143 1/2
Current Total: 143 1/2
Opening Money Line: Missouri -600 / Texas +450
Current Money Line; Missouri -600 / Texas +450

Missouri hosts Texas in a key Big 12 game Saturday. Missouri is a 10 point favorite at home.

Both Texas and Missouri are 2-1 this season in the Big 12. The Texas Longhorns are 12-4. Texas opened conference play with a loss at Iowa St, but has won two straight against Oklahoma St and arch-rival Texas A&M Wednesday night 61-51. Texas now takes on the 15-1 Missouri Tigers in Columbia. The Tigers have conference wins over Oklahoma and Iowa St Wednesday night 76-69. The only loss for Missouri came at Kansas St. Texas leads the series against Missouri 12-10. Texas won the last game in the series 71-58 last year in Austin. The series will  most likely end after this season as Missouri moves to the SEC next year.

Texas is coached by Rick Barnes. The Longhorns have non-conference wins over Boston University, Rhode Island, North Texas, UCLA, Temple, and Rice. Texas has additional losses to Oregon St, North Carolina St, and North Carolina.

Missouri is coached by Frank Haith. Haith was an assistant under Barnes for 3 seasons in the early 2000’s. Missouri has wins over Notre Dame, California, Villanova, William & Mary, Illinois, and Old Dominion.

Texas is outscoring opponents 76-63 this season. The Longhorns are shooting 45% from the field, and 32.6% from 3 point range. Texas makes 71.5% of their free throws. The Longhorns average 38 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +3.9. Texas averages 13.1 assists, 13 turnovers, 4.3 blocks, and 7.4 steals a game. Texas opponents are shooting 37.8% from the field and 33.4% from 3 point range. The Longhorns force 14.9 turnovers a game.

Texas guard J’Covan Brown averages 18.1 points, 3.4 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1.3 steals a game to tie for the team lead. Sheldon McClellan averages 11.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.1 steals a game. Myck Kabongo averages 9.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.3 assists to lead the team, and 1.3 steals a game. Jonathan Holmes averages 8.8 points, and 5.4 rebounds a game. Julien Lewis averages 8.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.3 steals a game. Clint Chapman averages 5.8 rebounds and 1.7 blocks a game to lead the Longhorns in both categories.

Missouri is outscoring opponents 84-62. The Tigers are shooting 51.1% from the field including 39.6% from 3 point range. Missouri makes 76.8% from the free throw line. The Tigers are fourth in scoring, first in field goal percentage, 20th in 3 point field goals, and 6th in free throw percentage nationally. Missouri averages 34.7 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +3.3. The Tigers average 16.6 assists, 10.1 turnovers, 9.3 steals, and 3.1 blocks a game. Missouri opponents are shooting 41.2% from the field, and 32.6% from 3 point range. Missouri forces 15.7 turnovers a game.

Missouri guard Marcus Denmon averages 17.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.5 steals a game. He shoots 43.4% from 3 point range. Kim English averages 15.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.3 steals a game. He makes 53% of his 3 point attempts. Ricardo Ratliffe averages 13.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 0.9 blocks a game. He leads the team in rebounds and blocks. Michael Dixon averages 12.8 points, 2 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.7 steals. Phil “Flip” Pressey averages 9.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 2 steals a game. He leads the team in assists and steals. Forward Laurence Bowers is out for the season with a knee injury.

Missouri is 7-4 against the spread and the total is 6-5 this season. Texas is 3-8 ATS and the total is 4-7 this season. Texas is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 against Missouri. The Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9. The Longhorns are 6-2 ATS as an underdog, including 5-2 on the road, 9-4 as a road underdog of 7-12.5 points, 2-6 after failing to cover, 2-8 after a straight up win, 1-4 in road games, and overall, 2-9 against teams with winning records, 0-4 in Big 12 games, and on the road against teams with winning home records. The Tigers are 7-2 ATS at home against teams with losing road records, 6-2 against teams with winning records, 14-5 as a home favorite of 7-12.5 points, 36-15 as a home favorite, 7-3 overall, and as a favorite, 15-7 as a favorite of 7-12.5 points, 34-16-1 at home, and 2-5-1 against Big 12 teams.

The last time Texas faced a team as talented as Missouri was four days before Christmas when the Longhorns were beaten soundly at North Carolina 82-63. I could see a similar score in this match-up. Missouri is one of the most talented teams in the country, and Texas isn’t quite as good as they have been in recent years.

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