San Diego Padres (37-45) AT Seattle Mariners (39-42)
July 1st, 2011 at 10:10 PM EST
Opening Moneyline:  SEA -125, SDG +105
Current Moneyline:  SEA -135, SDG +115
Opening Total:  6.5
Current Total:  6.5

SP: SDG- Dustin Moseley; SEA- Jason Vargas

For a team 8 games below .500, the Padres have a lot of reasons to rejoice.  They’ve won 4 stragiht and are beginning a there game series against another team under .500.  With a sweep they could pull within shooting distance of a .500 record themselves.  Things didn’t go so great last time against the Mariners, however, as Seattle swept them while outscoring the Padres 14-2 back in late May.  Even with the surge, San Diego still has the worst batting average in the NL at .236

During the surge, the Padres have averaged 4 runs in 4 consecutive wins, and they’ve won 7 of their last 8 after sweeping the Royals on Wednesday night, while winning 4-1 in the contest.

Outfielder Ryan Ludwick came up big against Kansas City, going 4 of 11 with a HR and 4 RBIs.

“We had such a slow April, it was only a matter of time before we started playing better,” Ludwick commented enthusiastically.  “Right now, everyone here is pitching in. We still have the same attitude here, we’re still having fun.”

Starter Dustin Moseley has not received much run support this season.  He has a very respectable 3.03 ERA but a 2-7 record to go with it.  Baseball Prospectus didn’t consider Moseley to be starting material, but rather “…far better suited to extremely low-leverage relief work.”

After spending last season as a Yankee, Moseley signed with the Padres for a tad less than $1 M.  Last season as a Yankee he compiled a 4-4 record with a 4.96 ERA in 65 1/3rds innings pitched.  This season Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection predicted an ERA over 5.00, but so far Moseley has been much better than that.

As bad as the Padres have been offensively, the Mariners have been even worse.  They have the worst batting average in the major leagues and have scored an average of only 2.8 runs per game this season.  They’ve lost 7 of their last 9, and as usual they don’t have the pitching staff to blame, but only their poor offense.  In 8 of their last 11 games they have scored less than 3 runs and have only hit more than 10 hits in 2 of their last 22 games.

“Again, we just weren’t able to get much going offensively,” manager Eric Wedge said.  “Ackley ran into that one late and he’s doing a heck of a job for us, but we’ve got to get these other guys going.”

His reference to Dustin Ackley is with regards to the fact that the rookie has reached base in every game since his June 17th debut and he just picked up his second homer.

Jason Vargas will take the mound for the Mariners.  He’s 5-5 with a 3.88 ERA this season.  In his last outing, he gave up 4 runs in 6 innings, as the Mariners lost once again 4-2 to the Marlins.  In his last 6 starts he is 2-3 with a 3.92 ERA, and he threw shutouts in both of the wins.  Against the Padres, Vargas is 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA, over 3 starts.

Some betting trends:

San Diego is 7-1 SU in their last 8 games and the total has gone OVER In 5 of their last 7 road games.  The Padres are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games on the road and they are 1-4 SU In their last 5 against the Seattle Mariners.  The total has gone OVER In 4 of the Padres’ last 6 games against the Seattle Mariners.

The Seattle Mariners are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER In 11 of the last 14.  The total has also gone UNDER in 6 of their last 8 games at home.  The Mariners are 1-4 SU in their last 5 home games while they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 against the San Diego Padres.  The total has gone OVER In 4 of the last 6 home games against the Padres.

Tonight’s game will offer a look at the two worst batting teams in the majors.  The total is set low at 6.5, and it’s not due to strong pitching (though both Vargas and Moseley have been solid this year), bur rather due to absolutely horrendous offense.  Even with the total set at 6.5, a bet on the ‘under ‘ looks to be a very promising proposition, as it has been with the Mariners, who have went ‘under’ in 11 of their last 14 games, as mentioned.