I just can’t get over the contrast between the two playoffs that are ongoing. The NHL is totally haywire. The first seven series all started 1-1, and the eighth appears headed that way. Good teams have looked bad, and bad teams have looked great, and nothing is really making a whole lot of sense as of yet. On the flipside, the NBA playoffs couldn’t be more predictable. All six home teams that have played so far have won their first games reasonably easily, and the seventh looks like they will as well. The only one of those favorites that hasn’t covered is Orlando, and they only missed by a point, so you could probably have found a winning price somewhere if you got lucky. The public is having a very good start to the NBA playoffs and getting absolutely brutalized by the NHL.
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Author: T.O. Whentam
1. There won’t be an upset throughout the playoffs – There is a big talent gap in the NBA. I don’t see an upset that is likely in the first round, and the standings lay out in such a way that the higher seeded team will be the better team if everything plays out as it is supposed to. It’s quite possible, then, that we could see a playoff race that runs exactly true to form. Something will probably disrupt it along the way, but it is definitely more possible this year than it has been in other years. The West could have had some big contests, but injuries are making that less likely.
2. Kevin Durant is going to make things fun – Despite the injury issues for the Lakers and the huge strides the Thunder have taken, Oklahoma City just isn’t ready to pull of an upset here. That being said, I think that Durant is going to be chomping at the bit to get his first taste of the playoffs, and to get some much deserved national TV exposure, and he’s going to make the most of it. We know that the guy is a big game player, and he and Kobe could have one heck of a showdown in this one. Kobe outscored Durant by just over a point per game in their four regular season meetings.
3. Vince Carter is going to be reborn – A guy as good as Carter is doesn’t have as much payoff success as he should have. He can’t always be accused of being a smart guy, but he’s smart enough to know that this is the best shot that he has had, and perhaps his last great chance to make a real impact. He’s matched up well in his opening series, and I look for him to really elevate his game in these playoffs. Orlando certainly could use some big play from him.
4. Derrick Rose will lead his team to a win in one game – The Cavs are clearly the best team in the league and are going to dominate the East, and likely the West when they get their chance. Rose and the Bulls are a feisty playoff team, though – remember the trouble they gave the Celtics last year – and I really do think that they will find a way to win one here.
5. The most vulnerable first round favorite is the Celtics – It’s hard to believe given how good they have been in the recent past, but the magic of Boston is clearly gone, and they are playing on borrowed time. They are still better than Miami and will win if both teams play their best, but if one team is going to lose series while holding home court advantage it will be Boston. They have struggled in the first round the last couple of years, and they just don’t have the margin of error now that they once did.
I absolutely love the Brandon Marshall deal – a true win-win for both teams. Denver obviously had to get rid of him, and getting two second round picks for him is impressive value all things considered. You’d like to get equivalent value, but that just doesn’t happen in the NFL. For Miami it’s a masterstroke. Ted Ginn Jr. was never going to be a number one receiver, so they needed to get someone. Marshall is an elite receiver – one of the top five – or fewer – in the whole league. It’s rare that you get access to a player like that, and especially rare that you get him at a price like this – one that is certainly fair. There is some risk that Marshall is going to be an attitude issue, but he should be happy to see new surroundings, Bill Parcells doesn’t take a lot of crap, and he does have the ability to play nice if he wants to. There is some downside risk, but it’s worth it to get a player of this caliber – a true game changer who can change an offense with his presence. As a diehard Michigan fan I’m obviously a big Chad Henne fan, and Henne – already a pretty solid NFL quarterback – has the opportunity to take his game to the next level. Henne looked pretty brilliant as a freshman throwing to Braylon Edwards, and Marshall is an even better deep threat than Edwards, so this pairing could be sweet music for years to come.
The NBA as a league is often ridiculous, but they have reached a whole new low with their latest move. Dell Curry is a broadcaster for the Charlotte Bobcats so he is able to vote for the league’s awards. He’s also the father of Stephen Curry, the likely second place finisher in the Rookie of the Year balloting. Because of the latter, the league has stripped Curry of his ROY vote this year while still letting him vote on the other categories. By doing that the league says that they are ensuring impartiality and saving him from a potentially damaging situation, but what they are really doing is saying that they don’t have any faith in Curry’s professionalism. I would have no problem if Curry decided to give up his vote himself – though I certainly don’t think that he needs to – but I think it’s insulting and ridiculous that the league felt that they needed to do it for him. Besides, by doing this they are suggesting that Curry is the only one who could potentially have any bias, and that’s just ridiculous. If they are going to take away this vote then they should also take away the votes of anyone from Memphis because they will be biased towards Tyreke Evans, and take away the vote of anyone who ever played for Milwaukee because they have been biased towards Brandon Jennings. Bias is absolutely and completely a part of voting for every single award there is – if not then every winner would be virtually unanimous. Besides, they are planning on giving the vote to someone else who covers the Bobcats. Do you honestly believe that that person won’t be at least a little biased towards Curry since they see his father every day? If you do you are naive. By isolating this one situation the NBA has made a joke of the whole thing. Why doesn’t the league focus on more pressing issues like making their perennially awful teams competitive or tightening up the playoff schedule so that teams don’t have five days off between games instead of sticking their nose in something ridiculous and meaningless like this?
Manu Ginobili got himself a three year, $39 million extension with the Spurs yesterday. Thus ends and interesting drama. Ginobili was heading towards free agency, and was understandably upset that the team wouldn’t have extended him sooner – he was looking for a deal last summer. The Spurs were nervous about the ankle injuries that had limited the Argentinian in the playoffs the last two years and were playing hardball. I can’t imagine that he would have been happy going into the playoffs without a deal, and he has been playing so well recently that he is definitely needed if they stand any hope of a playoff run. Ginobili is 32 so he would have been very attractive on the open market – especially as a consolation prize for the teams that have cleared space but don’t land one of the big prizes.
Now that the first series of the season is out of the way in baseball, we have our first chance to look at what we have seen so far and which players have done things that we like. On guy who really jumps out on that front is Vernon Wells. The Toronto slugger is talented – MVP talented – but there is a disconnect somewhere near where his brain meets his body, and he has never really been able to capitalize on what he is capable of. So far this year, though, he’s on fire – four home runs in three games, and in just 10 at-bats he has six hits and seven RBIs. With guys like Adam Lind and Travis Snyder in town Wells doesn’t have to be the only big bat for the Jays, and expectations aren’t very high for the team, so maybe he’s finally in a situation where he can have the massive year he is capable of. He’ll be worth watching.
The Raptors just can’t catch a break. They are just barely hanging on to a playoff spot – one that is worthless anyway because it just means they’ll get crushed by the Cavs – and now they have to try to hold off the Bulls without Chris Bosh. Bosh tried to eat Antawn Jamison’s elbow last night. The hit wasn’t intentional, but it was so hard that he smashed his face, broke bones, and will be missing some time. The Raptors are lousy with Bosh, and without him they are impossibly bad. It’s possible that Bosh has played his last game for Toronto. What a pathetic organization the Raptors have turned into.
As I talked about after the game on Saturday I just don’t like Duke. They are justified favorites tonight, and the price isn’t unfair, but I just can’t stand the thought of backing them. I’ll be cheering (hard) for Butler, and over the last couple of days I have come up with five reasons to justify that, and to justify a bet against the evil empire.
1. Streak – This is a team that has won 25 games in a row. That’s really something – regardless of who they play. They haven’t done that with overwhelming athleticism or depth, but by attention to fundamentals, consistent effort, and excellent coaching. They are a very tough team to prepare for, and a tough team to exploit. It might be hard to see how they are going to win this one, or even keep it close enough to cover, but the same could be said before this, and they find a way.
2. Home court – The impact of the home court is going to be far more significant than it was last time. A lot of the fans who were around for the two eliminated teams will have sold their tickets to the finals, and Indy residents, and therefore Butler fans, are the most likely purchasers. Those who aren’t attached to one of these teams will be far more inclined to be cheering for lovable Butler than the devils from Duke. They handled the pressure of the situation well last game, and this time around it should be a boost – one worth a point or two in the outcome of the game.
3. Precedence – This is the 58th time since 1997 that Butler has been an underdog in a non-conference game. They have covered 41 of those games – 72 percent. Nothing wrong with that.
4. Rebounding – Duke is the better rebounding team by far. They are also very good at turning those rebounds into second chance points. Against Michigan State, though, the Bulldogs did a very good job of asserting themselves on defensive rebounds, and of limiting the second chance attempts the Spartans got. If they can do that again then they’ll be able to challenge Duke and keep it close.
5. Back to earth – Duke beat up on West Virginia because the Mountaineers did nothing well. Most glaring, though, was a total lack of three point defense – Duke shot 52 percent from beyond the arc. Butler just isn’t going to let them do that, and that will have an impact on everything else the Blue Devils will want to do.
I was fully intending to write about baseball tonight, but two things changed that – the opening night game between the Yankees and the Red Sox was a total dud with abysmal pitching on both sides, and the Eagles lost their minds. There really is only one story tonight, and it’s a good one.
Both of those basketball games were very interesting today, but in different ways – and only one was watchable.
First, the Butler game. I have a serious man-crush on Gordon Hayward. He had 19 points and nine boards, and was absolutely everywhere throughout that game. From start to finish he did everything for his team and is by far the biggest reason why this remarkable run continues. Most impressively, though, Hayward was able to play stifling, relentless defense all game while only drawing two fouls. I was convinced he was the best future pro heading into this Final Four. Now I am certain of it. As good as he was, though, what I’ll remember most about this game was the glaring absence of Kalin Lucas. Without their floor general Michigan State regularly looked confused and disorganized when they were moving the ball down the court, and they just weren’t effective enough when they needed to be. They did a good job of controlling the Bulldogs in the second half, but without Lucas they were unable to capitalize on it and grab the win that was there for the taking. This is a game that will haunt Izzo, Lucas, and everyone else for a long time.
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