Arizona Diamondbacks (55-47) AT San Diego Padres (45-58)
July 26, 2011 at 10:05 PM EST
Opening Line: SD -125, ARI +105
Current Line: SD -112, ARI +102
Opening Total: 7
Current Total: 6.5
SP: ARI- Joe Saunders, SD- Dustin Moseley
By all means, division crown or not, this season will have to be considered a success by Diamondbacks management, fans, and players, as no one set the bar this high for the youthful Diamondbacks. But why stop here? – ask the Diamondbacks, they will have a chance to make up crucial ground at the end of this road trip against the Giants, and have a good opportunity to pick up a few wins in this three game set with the Padres.
The Diamondbacks are only four games out of first, and the Padres should be weary, after spending 26 of their last 36 games on the road. They will undoubtedly be happy to be back in San Diego.
Saturday night, Justin Upton and Miguel Montero both had big games, combining for 11 RBIs in a 12-3 victory over the Rockies. Sunday night, Upton came back just as strong, hitting a home run short of the cycle and driving in three more runs, as the Diamondbacks closed out the series with a 7-0 shutout win.
Justin Upton has been hot for a while, in fact, as he is 14 for his last 23, over the last 6 games. Upton hasn’t been as good on the road, but says all players “have (their) good times and (their) bad times…That’s just the way the game goes. I’ve been able to stay positive…and hit the ball.”
The Padres have won three of the last 5 between the teams and they will send Dustin Mosely to the mound. He is 3-9 with a 3.19 ERA, and gave up 3 runs (all unearned) over his last 6 innings in a 5-3 win Thursday night over the Marlins. Prior to that win, he had received only 12 runs of support in his first 18 starts. While undoubtedly elated to get the win, he simply said: “It makes things a lot easier, that’s for sure. You don’t have to be so careful and try to pitch perfect.”
The Diamondbacks are going to counter with Joe Saunders, who is 6-8 with a 3.82 ERA on the year. His 3.17 ERA after the second inning illustrates the troubles Saunders has had warming up early in games. He gave up only 1 run through his last 7 innings in a loss to the Brewers on Wednesday night, but picked up the loss after a poor start. Of the 13 runs he has allowed, 6 have came in the first inning, and all 4 of them did in the May 8th loss in San Diego.
Some betting trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the Diamondbacks’ 9 games and they are 6-3 SU over that stretch. They are also 6-3 SU in their last 9 against the San Diego Padres. The Diamondbacks are 2-11 SU in their last 13 on the road in San Diego, while the total has gone OVER in 6 of the last 9 on the road at Petco in San Diego.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of the San Diego Padres’ last 11 games, while they are 5-11 SU in their last 16 games. The total has also gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 home games and the Padres are 3-6 SU in their last 9 at Arizona. The total has gone OVER in 6 of the Padres’ last 9 games at home against the Diamondbacks, and the Padres are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games at home against Arizona.
This one has all the makings of a pitchers’ duel, as indicated by the ERA of the opposing pitchers and the total set by MLB oddsmakers. The Padres have won 3 of the last 5, but Arizona will undoubtedly be focused on making a run over this trip, and I favor the slightly dogged Diamondbacks.