Seattle Mariners (32-31) AT Detroit Tigers (34-28)
June 10, 2011 at 7:05 PM EST
Opening Line: DET -135, SEA +115
Current Line: DET -125, SEA +104
Opening Total: 8
Current Total: 8
SP: SEA- Erik Bedard; DET- Brad Penny
Erik Bedard is finally starting to show what he is made of, now that he’s healthy. He’s 3-4 this year with a very respectable 3.46 ERA and he gave up only one run and 5 hits in 7 innings of work in a 10-1 Mariners victory on April 27th.
Detroit manager Jim Leyland takes pity on Bedard…”That poor guy has been plagued with injuries for years…but he looked better than I’ve seen him in a while now.”
That “poor guy” has gone 3-0 with a 1.75 ERA in his last 7 starts, after getting off to a horrid start where he compiled a 7.71 ERA in losing all four decisions. Both of his last two starts have been non-decisions, but he did record a quality start against Tampa Bay on Sunday, giving up 3 runs in 7 innings as he struck out 7 in a 9-6 win. Baseball Prospectus predicts a 9-5 record with 114 IPs and a 3.09 ERA. In other words, when Bedard is healthy – he’s very good.
Brad Penny will take the mound for the Tigers. He’s 5-4 with a 4.76 ERA this season and in his last outing he gave up 3 runs in 5 innings pitched (but he threw 100 pitches), and the Tigers won 7-3. He picked up the win for his effort.
Against the Mariners, Penny is 0-2 with a 5.21 ERA in his last 3 starts. Penny is getting up in years now (33) and as that happens pitchers tend to fall off. But that hasn’t been the case with Penny. His ERA was higher in 2008 & early 2009 than it has been in the latter half of 2009 and 2010 when his ERA has been under 3.00. PECOTA predicts him to fall off some this year, predicting a 4.44 ERA. That figure seems to be about accurate thus far.
Mariners manager Eric Wedge has a good feeling about this season for his club:
“I like our guys…if we can put it all together we’ve got a chance to be a pretty good ballclub.”
Some betting trends:
Seattle is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games and they are 15-7 SU in their last 22 games. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle’s last 7 games and it has also gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 on the road. Seattle is 2-4 SU In their last 6 on the road and the total has gone OVER In 6 of Seattle’s last 8 games against Detroit. The Mariners are 4-2 SU In their last 6 against Detroit and the total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 on the road against the Tigers. The Mariners are 4-1 SU in their last 5 on the road against the Tigers.
Detroit is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games and they are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 games at home and it has gone OVER in 6 of their last 8 against the Mariners. The Tigers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 against Seattle and the total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 at home against the Mariners. The Tigers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 at home against Seattle.
Erik Bedard is healthy and firing but the Mariners still find themselves underdogs. This is one of the better bets ATS in my opinion, especially given Penny’s struggles against them.