ACC Rivals Clash at Cameron: North Carolina St Wolfpack at Duke Blue Devils

North Carolina St Wolfpack at #4 Duke Blue Devils
Cameron Indoor Stadium – Durham, North Carolina
Thursday, February 16, 2012, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ACC Net, ESPN FC
Opening Line: Duke -10 1/2
Current Line: Duke -10
Opening Total: 151
Current Total: 149 1/2
Opening Money Line: Duke -550 / NC State +450
Current Money Line: Duke -600 / NC State +475

Duke hosts in-state rival NC State Thursday night in a key ACC battle. Duke is a 10 point favorite at home.

It is no surprise to see the 21-4 Duke Blue Devils near the top of the ACC standings with an 8-2 record. However some fans might be surprised to see North Carolina St is right there too with a 7-3 record. The Wolfpack are 18-7 overall. Both teams trail 9-2 North Carolina in the standings. Florida St is also in the mix for the conference title at 8-2.

The Wolfpack have won 3 games in a row including 61-52 at Georgia Tech last Thursday. Duke has won 5 of their last 6 games, including a 73-55 win at home against Maryland Saturday. Duke leads the overall series against NC State 137-97 including 54-30 in Durham. Duke has won 9 of the last 11 meetings against the Wolfpack and 10 in a row at Cameron.

North Carolina St is coached by Mark Gottfried. The Wolfpack have losses to Vanderbilt, Indiana, Stanford, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Virginia. NC State has wins over Princeton, Texas, Maryland, Wake Forest twice, Miami, and Boston College twice.

Duke is coached by Mike Krzyzewski. The Blue Devils have losses to Ohio St, Temple, Florida St, and Miami. Duke has wins over Michigan St, Davidson, Tennessee, Michigan, Kansas, Colorado St, Washington, Western Michigan, Penn, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Wake Forest, Maryland twice, St. John’s, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina.

NC State is outscoring opponents 74-67 this season. The Wolfpack are shooting 46.8% from the field, including 36.3% from 3 point range. North Carolina St makes 73.9% of their free throws. The Wolfpack average 36.9 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +4.8. NC State averages 16.8 assists, 13 points, 7.2 steals, and 4.3 blocks a game. North Carolina St is 9th in assists nationally. Wolfpack opponents are shooting 41.8% from the field including 35.4% from 3 point range. NC State forces 13 turnovers a game.

NC State forward Scott Wood averages 13.4 points, 1.9 rebounds, and 1.56assists a game. Wood is shooting 43.7% from 3 point range. C.J. Leslie averages 13 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.7 blocks a game to lead the team. C.J. Williams averages 12.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1.1 steals a game. He is shooting 36.5% from 3 point range. Lorenzo Brown averages 11.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 6.7 assists, and 1.8 steals a game. Brown leads the team in assists and steals. Richard Howell averages 11.4 points, 9.2 rebounds to lead the team, and 1.2 assists a game. DeShawn Painter averages 6.6 points, and 4.6 rebounds.

Duke is outscoring opponents 80-69 this season. The Blue Devils shoot 47.6% from the field, including 39.2% from 3 point range. Duke is in the top 30 nationally in all three categories. The Blue Devils make 69.3% of their free throws. Duke averages 36.4 rebounds a game, and has a rebounding margin of +3. Duke averages 13 assists and 12.5 turnovers a game. Duke averages 6.5 steals and 4.2 blocks a game. Duke opponents are shooting 43.8% from the field including 30.8% from 3 point range. Duke forces 13.3 turnovers a game.

Duke has 4 players scoring in double digits. Austin Rivers averages 15 points to lead the team, 3.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1 steal per game. He makes 41.0% from 3 point range. Seth Curry averages 12.9 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.5 steals a game. Curry leads the Blue Devils in assists and steals and is shooting 38.8% from 3 point range. Ryan Kelly averages 12.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 1 assist, and 1.1 blocks a game. He makes 41.3% of his three point attempts.  Mason Plumlee averages 11.6 points, 9.9 rebounds to lead the team, 1.9 assists, and 1.6 blocks a game to lead the team. Andre Dawkins and Miles Plumlee also score significant points for Duke.

Duke is 11-14 ATS and the total is 16-9 this season. NC State is 9-12 ATS this season and the total is 11-10. Ten of the last twelve games in this series have gone over the total. NC State is 5-1 ATS in road games against teams with winning home records, 4-1 in road underdogs, 6-2 in road games, 7-3 in Thursday games, 8-19 against teams with winning records, 4-10 after a straight up win, 2-5 as an underdog of 7-12.5 points, 7-18 as an underdog, 6-19-1 in ACC games, 1-4 overall, and 1-5 after a cover. The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS against teams with winning records, and in ACC games, 8-20-1 as a home favorite of 7-12.5 points, 6-20 as a favorite of 7-12.5 points, 1-4 after a cover, 1-5 in Thursday games, 1-5 at home, and as a home favorite.

At one point this season, Duke had won 39 straight games at home, but they have two narrow home losses in conference to Florida St and Miami. It has removed the feeling of invincibility the Blue Devils had at Cameron. For North Carolina St, this game is important because they lack that one signature win that should secure an NCAA tournament bid, unless you count wins over bubble teams Texas and Miami. Duke has been dominant against their in-state rivals recently, and like Duke to win and cover. The Wolfpack could hang around for awhile though.

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