ACC Quarterfinal Betting Action: (4) North Carolina vs. Maryland

Maryland is going to need the biggest of big games from Terrell Stoglin to keep this one close
ACC Quarterfinals
Maryland vs. North Carolina
Tip of: Noon, EST
Spread: UNC -15.5

Bet at Bookmaker, the source of these odds


Maryland crushed Wake Forest last night in a game they were only four point favorites in. Winning by 22, they received 25 points from Terrell Stoglin, who scored 9 straight in a 20-4 run that opened the second half. The Terrapins led by 5 at the half, and Nick Faust and James Padgett combined for an additional 29 points, as Maryland built its lead as high as 29 before putting in the scrubs.

Stoglin, a 6’1″ sophomore guard, is an elite passer and great at getting to the basket. He has quickly become one of the best scorers in the nation, as he has nearly doubled his scoring average from last season to an impressive 21.2 per game. Despite his craftiness with the ball, he’s not picking up many assists, actually less than his great freshman campaign last year (1.9 compared to 3.3 last year). He also has yet to become a game changer defensively, but that might be knit picking at this point for a player who has made such strides so quickly. Sunday night he scored 25 against Virginia, though he did so inefficiently, shooting 8 of 24 from the floor. He’s struggled with his shot badly recently, though, and has not shot over 35% from the floor for a game since the contest against Boston College on February 16th, a game which the Terrapins won by 16.

Other than their opponent UNC today, Maryland is the only team other than Duke to win the ACC since 1997, but sitting 8th, winning this may be quite an unreasonable proposition against the 27-4 Tar Heels.

Terrapins Betting Trends:

Average Total: 139.1

M/L Wins Last 5: 3

OVER 4 of the last 5.

North Carolina

The 27-4 Tar Heels are playing their first ACC Tournament game after receiving the bye. They rank 2nd in the nation in Points pre game (82.3), first in rebounding (45.7) and 4th in assists (17.5). They are likely going to be a #1 seed in a week when the NCAA tournament begins, and were one of the pre-season favorites to win the title.

The Tar Heels have also won their last sen games, including a huge victory on the road at Duke just last week. The Tar Heels embarrassed the Blue Devils by 18 points on their home court, to claim the ACC regular season title. They never trailed in the game and received a huge game from point guard Kendall Marshall, who went for 20 points and 10 assists, saying that he felt “disrespected” by the way the Blue Devils played video highlights over their scoreboard of the last second victory the last time the teams met. He said it left a “bad taste in their mouths,” and that they “(wanted to) play well today.”

The trio of Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller, and John Henson leads the way for UNC scoring. Barnes, a likely top 5 pick in the NBA Draft this year, is putting up 17.4 points per game and grabbing 5.1 boards per night, and Zeller is also likely a first rounder, putting up a near double double (16.3 ppg, 9.3 rpg) while also swatting away 1.4 shots per night. Henson blocks even more shots (3.0) and also averages a double double with 14 points and 10 rebounds per game.

Kendall Marshall is the only Tar Heel to see more than 30 minutes per game and he’s averaging 9.6 assists per game. A true point guard, Marshall doesn’t shoot a very high percentage from the floor, 42.8%, but his team leadership abilities should make him a mid first rounder this NBA Draft as well. He’s becoming a better defender game by game, and averages 1.3 steals per game. He should work on improving his free throw shooting though, so he can better help the Tar Heels close out close games. Marshall shoots only 71.4% from the line.

Tar Heels Betting Trends:

UNC Is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games, and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against Maryland. They are 9-4 SU in their last 13 against the Terrapins and the total has gone OVER in all 5 of the last 5 meetings.

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