ACC College Football Week 7 Picks: Louisville Cardinals at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Big South Tournament

Louisville at Wake Forest

Time: 6:30 PM CST, Saturday

Spread: WAKE -6.5

Total: 66.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Louisville Cardinals have been something of a surprise so far at 3-2, yet it finds itself 6.5-point underdogs as it takes to the road to face Wake Forest in Week 7. Louisville is 0-1 on the road this season. The over/under is set at 66.5 total points according to NCAA football oddsmakers at 5dimes, and the game will kick off at 6:30 pm CST Saturday on the ACC Network.

LOU

Louisville thus far has maintained a very balanced attack, mostly due to the emergence of former Cocoa Tiger Javian Hawkins. He has rushed for 562 yards and two touchdowns with a 6.2 yard-per-carry average. That supplements the damage Malik Cunningham is capable of from the QB position quite well. Cunningham is averaging 3.9 per-carry on his 43 attempts while leading the team with three rushing touchdowns. Louisville has scored nine TDs via the rush and 11 in the air. Top wideout Tatu Atwell has 424 yards on 25 catches, both team highs, and he has caught five of the 11 TD passes. Dez Fitzpatrick is No. 2 in catches and yardage with 16 and 283, and he has three touchdowns, as well.

Tight end Marshon Ford has just eight receptions, but two have been for touchdowns and he ranks No. 4 in yardage with 145 yards on his eight catches. Louisville is a much more dangerous offensive team than it was anticipated it would be, and at 32.4 points per game, it ranks No. 51 in the nation. That is not outstanding, but it is definitely good enough with a defense that has limited opponents to just 26 points per game. Credit Hawkins for the emergence of the Cardinals, as the team possesses a top-20 rush attack that generates 227.4 yards per game, with Hawkins and Cunningham providing most of that oomph.

WAKE

Wake Forest clocks in at No. 19 on the AP Polls following its fifth straight victory to improve to 5-0. The Demon Deacons have not faced quality opponents, with the North Carolina Tar Heels representing the closest thing to a tough football team. Wins over Utah State, Rice, and Elon were expected, though the Deacons did take care of business in defeating all those teams (except Utah State) by a hefty margin.

Wake ranks high in offensive metrics. The team is No. 14 in passing yardage at 312.6 yards per game and No. 40 in rushing offense with 202.4 yards per game. The Demon Deacons have the No. 30 best scoring offense at 35.8 points per game while holding its opponents to just 21 per. That said, giving up 35 points to Utah State and 24 to Boston College were both pretty strong black marks in what were wins for the team.

Quarterback Jamie Newman has been great though. He has 1,521 yards on the season with 14 TDs and just three interceptions while also ranking No. 2 on the team in rushing yardage with 262 yards and a team-best three rushing touchdowns. Top running back Kenneth Walker III has been outright dominant. He averages nearly a first down (9.6 yards per rush) with his 318 yards on only 33 carries. He also had a long-rush of 96 yards.

Cade Carney has more carries (56) but averages just 3.6 yards per attempt and has only one touchdown rush on the season. Wake has scored eight rushing touchdowns, but it has 15 via the pass. Sage Surratt and Scotty Washington are responsible for most of that damage with almost 1000 yards between them and 12 of the team’s 15 TDs.

ATS TRENDS (C/o Covers):

Louisville
  • Cardinals are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss.
  • Cardinals are 7-19 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Cardinals are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games overall.
  • Cardinals are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games on fieldturf.
  • Cardinals are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games in October.
  • Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Cardinals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.
  • Cardinals are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
  • Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Wake Forest
  • Demon Deacons are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
  • Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Demon Deacons are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Demon Deacons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
  • Demon Deacons are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
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