ACC College Football Betting Week 13: Duke Blue Devils at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Duke Blue Devils at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
BB&T Stadium – Winston-Salem, North Carolina

Saturday, November 23, 2013, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Duke -5 1/2
Current Line: Duke -6
Opening Total: 50
Current Total: 49 1/2
Opening Money Line: Duke -205 / Wake Forest +175
Current Money Line: Duke -230 / Wake Forest +190

Duke is a 6 point favorite at Wake Forest Saturday. Duke  will win the ACC Coastal division if they win out.
Duke is a 6 point favorite at Wake Forest Saturday. Duke will win the ACC Coastal division if they win out.

Coach K’s Duke basketball team lead by exciting freshman Jabari Parker isn’t the only team gaining national buzz. The 8-2 Duke football team has won six straight games. The Blue Devils are 4-2 and lead the ACC Coastal Division. Duke controls their own destiny for a spot in the ACC Championship game. The Blue Devils have to win their last two games at in-state rivals Wake Forest and North Carolina to claim the division title.

Wake Forest hosts Duke Saturday. The 4-6 Demon Deacons must win out against Duke and Vanderbilt to become bowl eligible. Wake Forest is 2-5 in the ACC Atlantic Division. The Blue Devils lead the series 54-37-2 but the Demon Deacons are 12-10-1 in BB&T stadium. Duke won last year in Winston-Salem 34-27 to snap a 12 game losing streak to Wake Forest.

Duke is coached by David Cutcliffe. The program has never gone to bowl games in consecutive years before this year. The Blue Devils are already bowl eligible thanks to a current 6 game winning streak.  Duke lost their first two ACC games of the year at home to Georgia Tech 38-14 and Pittsburgh 58-55. The Blue Devils have home wins over North Carolina Central 45-0, Troy 38-31, Navy 35-7, North Carolina State 38-20 and last week against Miami 48-30, along with road wins at Memphis 28-14, Virginia 35-22, and Virginia Tech 13-10. Duke is 8-2 ATS and the total is 5-5 this season. The Blue Devils have covered 5 straight games. Duke was a 3.5 point underdog against Miami and the total was 64.

Duke trailed Miami 17-7 after the first quarter. However, the Blue Devils took a 21-20 lead into halftime. Each team scored 10 points in the third quarter to make it 31-30 Duke going into the fourth. Duke broke open a close game in the fourth with 17 unanswered points to win 48-30. The Blue Devils had 543 total yards including 358 rushing yards. The Hurricanes had 565 total yards including 379 passing yards. The two teams combined for 12 penalties for 124 yards. Miami had the game’s only turnover.

Duke is outscoring teams 35-23 this season. The Blue Devils are #34 in both scoring and in points allowed nationally. Duke is averaging 422.7 yards per game on offense, including 237.6 passing and 185.1 rushing yards. The Blue Devils allow 404.6 total yards per game on defense, including 235.5 passing and 169.1 rushing yards.  The Blue Devils are +1 in turnovers with 19 takeaways. Duke averages 42 penalty yards per game and opponents average 53. The Blue Devils are 65/157 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 67/184. Duke has forced 18 sacks and allowed 13 this season. The Blue Devils are 37/44 scoring in the red zone along with 31 touchdowns and opponents are 24/32 with 17 touchdowns. Duke has 2 punt returns for touchdowns, 2 pick sixes, and a kick return for a touchdown, and has allowed 2 punt returns for touchdowns and 2 pick sixes.

Duke uses two quarterbacks. Brandon Connette has completed 62.9% of his passes for 1,209 yards with 13 touchdowns and six interceptions, along with 90 carries for 320 yards and 12 touchdowns. Anthony Boone has completed 63.2% of his passes for 1,165 yards with 5 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, along with 45 carries, 112 yards and 4 touchdowns. Back-up quarterback Thomas Sirk is out indefinitely with a torn Achilles’ tendon, but hasn’t taken a snap this season.

Running back Jela Duncan has 91 carries, 485 yards with 3 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown catch.  Josh Snead has 68 carries for 480 yards, along with 3 catches. Juwan Thompson and Shaquille Powell will each get some carries and catches. Powell has 2 rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown. Little used running back Eric Adams is questionable with an upper body injury.

Receiver Jamison Crowder has 73 catches, 956 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 52 rushing yards and a touchdown. Crowder also has 2 punt returns for touchdowns. Braxton Deaver has 27 catches, 368 and 4 touchdowns. Brandon Braxton has 29 catches, 269 yards and 2 touchdowns. Max McCaffrey has 21 catches for 244 yards and 3 touchdowns. Isaac Blakeney has 14 catches, 164 yards and 4 touchdowns. Four defensive players are listed on the injury report.

Wake Forest is coached by Jim Grobe. The Demon Deacons have home wins over Presbyterian 31-7, NC State 28-13 Maryland 34-10, along with a road win at Army 25-11. Wake Forest has road losses at Boston College 24-10,  Clemson 56-7, Miami 24-21, and Syracuse 13-10 along with home losses to Louisiana-Monroe 21-19 and last week against Florida State 59-3. Wake has lost 3 straight games. The Demon Deacons are 4-6 ATS and the total is 2-8 this season. Wake Forest was a 34 point home underdog against Florida State  and the total was 56.

Florida State scored the first 52 points of the game, including two defensive touchdowns. After Wake Forest kicked a fourth quarter field goal to avoid the shutout, Florida State scored on a 97 yard kick return to close out the scoring and make the final 59-3. The last touchdown put the game over the total. Wake Forest had 166 total yards and 8 first downs. Florida State had 296 total yards including 207 passing. Wake Forest had 10 penalties for 100 yards and 7 turnovers. FSU had 2 turnovers.

Wake Forest is being outscored 24-18 this season. Wake is #115 nationally in scoring out of 125 teams and #43 in points allowed. The Demon Deacons are averaging 297.5 yards per game on offense including 208 passing yards and 89.5 rushing yards. Wake is #119 in total offense and rushing, and #87 in passing. On defense, the Deacons are allowing 361.3 total yards per game, including 214.8 passing yards per game and 146.5 rushing yards. Wake is 37th or better in all three categories. Wake Forest is -2 in turnovers with 20 giveaways. The Demon Deacons are averaging 55 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 41. Wake is 59/163 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 67/177. The Deacons have forced 21 sacks and allowed 18. Wake Forest is 19/24 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns, and opponents are 29/38 with 20 touchdowns. Wake has one pick six this season, and has allowed a kickoff return for a touchdown and two defensive touchdowns.

Wake Forest quarterback Tanner Price has completed 55.8% of his passes for 1,954 yards with 12 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with 93 carries for 147 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. Running back Josh Harris has 99 carries, 368 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 10 catches. Dominique Gibson has 49 carries for 119 yards, along with 8 catches for 87 yards and a touchdown.

Receiver Michael Campanero has 67 catches, 803 yards and 6 touchdowns Campanero even threw a touchdown pass to Price. He is out with a broken collarbone after missing the Florida State game. He could make it back if the Demon Deacons become bowl eligible. Jonathan Williams has 15 catches for 206 yards. Orville Reynolds has 9 catches, 131 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with an ankle injury, but missed the last 7 games.  Spencer Bishop and Jared Crump also get significant catches. Four defensive players and two offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

Duke is 5-0 ATS in ACC  games, after a straight up win, overall, and on fieldturf, 4-0 against teams with losing records, after a cover, and after gaining more than 450 total yards, 6-1-1 against teams with losing home records, 20-8-1 after allowing 450 total yards or more, 3-7-1 after scoring 40 points or more, and 3-8 after rushing for 200 yards or more. The road team is 7-3 ATS in this series recently. The Blue Devils are 5-2 ATS in the last seven against the Demon Deacons, and 4-1 in Winston-Salem.

Wake Forest is 6-1 ATS after a bye week, 5-1 after allowing 40 points or more, 5-2 after a double digit home loss, 4-9 overall, 2-5 after a straight up loss, and after failing to cover, 3-8 after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, 3-9 against teams with winning records, 1-4 against teams with winning road records, and after passing for less than 170 yards, 1-5 after gaining less than 275 total yards, and 0-5 in November. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven in this series. Five of the last six games in this series have gone over the total.

Wake Forest wasn’t exactly and offensive juggernaut even before Campanero went down with the collarbone injury. However, he was injured early in the Syracuse game and the Demon Deacons have scored a total of three points since then. I don’t see Wake Forest having enough fire power to keep up with Duke, but the Demon Deacons might keep it close for a while. Duke wins and gets one step closer to the Coastal title.

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