ACC Betting Picks: #24 Clemson Tigers at Boston College Eagles

#24 Clemson Tigers at Boston College Eagles
Alumni Stadium – Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts

Saturday, October 18, 2014, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Clemson -7 (-114)
Current Line: Clemson -5
Opening Total:  51 1/2
Current Total: 45
Opening Money Line: Clemson -215 / Boston College +180
Current Money Line: Clemson -210 / Boston College +180

Clemson and Boston college meet Saturday in a key ACC Atlantic game.
Clemson and Boston college meet Saturday in a key ACC Atlantic game.

Both the Clemson Tigers and Boston College Eagles are 4-2 this season as they meet Saturday in Chestnut Hill. Clemson is 3-1 in the ACC Atlantic Division and BC is 1-1. Both teams trail 4-0 Florida State in the standings.

Clemson leads the series against Boston College 12-9-2. Clemson has won 5 of the last 6 games in the series including 3 straight by double digits. Clemson won at home last season 24-14. The series is tied 6-6-1 in Chestnut Hill.

Clemson is coached by Dabo Swinney. The Tigers have losses at Georgia 45-21 and at Florida State 23-17 in overtime. Clemson has home wins over South Carolina State 73-7, North Carolina 50-35, NC State 41-0, and last week against Louisville 23-17. The Tigers have won 3 straight games. Clemson was an 8.5 point favorite against Louisville and the total was 46.5. The Tigers are 4-2 ATS and the total is 3-3 this season.

Boston College is coached by  Steve Addazio. The Eagles have losses to Pittsburgh 30-20 and Colorado State 24-21 both at home. BC has road wins over Massachusetts 30-7, and last week at NC State 30-14. The Eagles have home wins over USC 37-31 and Maine 40-10. BC was a  2.5 point underdog at NC State and the total was 54.5. The Eagles are 4-2 ATS and the total is 2-3-1 this season.

Clemson is outscoring teams 38-21 this season. The Tigers are #25 in scoring and #35 in points allowed nationally. Clemson is averaging 447 yards per game including 306 passing and 141 rushing yards. The Tigers are #39 in total offense and #19 in passing, but the rushing attack is #95 out of 128 FBS teams. On defense, Clemson is allowing 286 yards per game including 186 rushing and 101 rushing yards per game. The Tigers are in the top 20 nationally in all three categories including #6 in total defense. Clemson is +4 in turnovers with 10 takeaways. The Tigers average 34 penalty yards per game and opponents average 63. Clemson is 49/113 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 25/97. The Tigers have forced 21 sacks and allowed 15 this season. Clemson is 19/26 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns and opponents are 9/14 with 8 touchdowns. Clemson has 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns and has allowed 2 this season.

Clemson started off the season with Cole Stoudt at quarterback, but he was benched earlier in the season in favor of Deshaun Watson. Watson broke his hand last week against Louisville and is out for at least a month after undergoing surgery this week. Stoudt will be the starter again. Watson has thrown for 1,176 yards with 12 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 51 carries for 147 yards and 3 touchdowns. Stoudt has thrown for 649 yards with a touchdown and 2 interceptions, and rushed for 21 yards on 31 carries.

Clemson running back Adam Choice has 46 carries for 205 yards with a touchdown, along with 9 catches for 90 yards. C.J. Davidson has 42 carries for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 8 catches for 46 yards. Wayne Gallman has 33 carries for 159 yards, plus 12 catches for 47 yards. D.J. Howard has 35 carries for 133 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 4 catches. Receiver Mike Williams has  22 catches for 543 yards with 4 touchdowns. Artavis Scott has 28 catches for 371 yards and 3 touchdowns. Germone Hopper has 9 catches for 235 yards with 2 touchdowns. Charone Peake has 2 touchdown catches but is out with a knee injury. Adam Humpries has 14 catches and a punt return for a touchdown.

Boston College is outscoring teams 30-19 this season. The Eagles are #22 nationally in points allowed. Boston College is averaging 444 yards per game, including 128 passing and 316 rushing yards per game. The Eagles are #5 in rushing and #123 in passing nationally. On defense, BC is allowing 290 yards per game including 190 passing and 100 rushing yards. The Eagles are in the top 20 in all three categories and in the top 10 nationally in total and rush defense. BC is -1 in turnovers with 6 takeaways. The Eagles average 33 penalty yards per game and opponents average 35 per game. BC is 41/94 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 30/83. The Eagles have forced 17 sacks and allowed 6 this season. Boston College is 19/22 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns and opponents are 13/15 with 11 touchdowns.

BC quarterback Tyler Murphy has thrown for 761 yards with 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, but leads the Eagles in rushing with 86 carries for 711 yards and 8 touchdowns. Running back Jon Hilliman has 103 carries for 454 yards and 7 touchdowns. Myles Willis has 54 carries for 270 yards and a touchdown. Sherman Alston, Tyler Rouse and Marcus Outlow will also get carries. Alston and Rouse each have two touchdown runs. Receiver Josh Bordner has 16 catches for 242 yards and 2 touchdowns. Dan Crimmins has 17 catches for 156 yards.

Clemson is 6-0 ATS on fieldturf, 4-0 after rushing for less than 100 yards, 5-1 in ACC games, and against teams with winning records, 4-1 overall, 5-2 after a straight up win, 20-8 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 9-4 in road games, and 1-4 in October. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 games in this series.

Boston College is 5-0 ATS against teams with winning road records, 4-1 in October, 8-3 on fieldturf, 10-4 at home and after rushing for 200 yards or more, 7-3 in conference games, and against teams with winning records, 2-5 after failing to cover, 2-6 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 1-6 after allowing less than 20 points, and 0-4 after allowing less than 275 yards.

Both of these teams have top 10 defenses. The offenses are pretty good as well, but each goes about in a different way. Clemson is a pass first team and the running game is an afterthought in most cases, while BC is just the opposite. I think Clemson wins a close low scoring game on the road.

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