AAC Conference Matchup Week 6 College Football: UCF Knights at Memphis Tigers

blake bortles-ucf-2013UCF-Memphis
Time: 4:30 PM ET, Oct 5 2013
Spread: UCF -9.5
M/L: UCF -350; MEM +290
O/U: 48

Odds courtesy of 5dimes

UCF is coming off what the school dubbed its biggest game in school history to-date, but the contest against then-No. 12 South Carolina ended the way college football oddsmakers predicted it would, to some degree, with South Carolina winning. UCF did cover the spread, though, losing by just three points. This week against Memphis provides a chance to tune-up before yet another ranked opponent when the Knights take on No. 7 Louisville next week.

Blake Bortles has been extremely impressive this season and has driven the Knights to a 22nd ranked pass offense. Bortles has thrown 75-for-106 (70.8 percent) for 1,174 yards and the 6’4″ junior will definitely make a bid as one of the best UCF quarterbacks in school history. Last season, Bortles threw for 3,059 yards, but the move to a much tougher conference has given UCF its chance to shine against much more regarded opponents. Bortles has risen to the challenge so far.

Storm Johnson has been an extremely effective back for the Knights. He has 369 yards on 71 carries (5.2 yards per carry) and 7 TDs. The Knights aren’t really a running team, but Johnson is an effective means to an end in the red zone.

The Knights defense thus far has been hit and miss, holding the potent Gamecocks to 28, but allowing 34 from Penn State. Shutting down Florida International and Akron skews the statistics, and Memphis is more along the lines of the inferior opponents. Memphis allowed 28 from Duke and also lost to Mid Tennessee before securing their first victory Sept 21 against Arkansas State.

The Tigers rank near the bottom of the nation in passing yardage (164.7 yards per game), but the team does have a decent running attack that generates nearly 200 yards per game. Brandon Hayes and Marquis Warford both have over 200 yards on the season and Warford has done it with just 22 carries (10.4 yards per carry). Memphis’ hopes of both covering the spread and winning the game lies on the shoulders of this duo, as well as QB Paxton Lynch being decently accurate. If Hayes and Warford open up the field some by securing some big runs, the Tigers could spread the offense out more and involve receivers Tevin Jones and Joe Craig.


OVER 4-0 in last 4 road games vs teams with losing home records; 5-0 ATS in last 5 overall; 4-0 ATS in last 4 after allowing more than 450 total yards previous game.


UNDER 9-1 in last 10 following SU win; UNDER 8-1 in last 9 after allowing less than 20 points in previous game; UNDER 6-1 in last 7 vs teams with winning records.

Head-to-head: Home team is 4-0 ATS in last 4 meetings.

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