AAC College Football Odds: Cincinnati Bearcats at South Florida Bulls

Cincinnati at South Florida

Time: 5:30 PM CST, Sat.

Spread: CIN -13

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Cincinnati Bearcats are 8-1 and in first place in the AAC East division. It will travel to face the South Florida Bulls at 6 PM (CST) Saturday on CBS and CBS affiliates. The Bearcats is 13-point favorites in the affair.


Cincinnati has just one loss on the season, and a forgivable one, its Week 2 loss to the now-No. 2 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. It is perfect (5-0) in AAC play. Cincy will close the season with a home game against Temple and then a finale on the road at No. 18 ranked Memphis. That game will likely not factor into winning the division though, given that Cincy is 1.5 games ahead of the UCF Knights in the division.

Cincy has a powerful rush offense that ranks No. 31 at 202.4 yards per game. It manages just over 200 via the passing game, but the team scores 36.8 per game while limiting opponents to just 21 per game, a point differential of +15.8. The Bearcats’ top rusher is Michael Warren II. He has 699 yards on 146 carries and nine of the team’s 18 rushing touchdowns. Desmond Ridder has 417 yards on 91 attempts but just one touchdown as the No. 2 backfield option. Gerrid Doaks leads the team in yards-per-carry at 6.0 and he has four touchdowns, as well.

Quarterback Desmond Ridder has been reasonably accurate and effective despite the Bearcats not relying so heavily on the passing game. He has thrown for 1,696 yards at a 59 percent clip with 17 TDs and just seven INTs. His passer rating is 142.1. Ridder’s top-two receivers have both topped 400 yards on the season.

Alec Pierce leads the team in yardage (441), but tight end Josiah Deguara has been the star of the pass offense. He has a team-best 28 receptions for 414 yards while leading the team with seven touchdowns. Cincy has scored 17 touchdowns via the pass, and it averages 13.4 yards-per-attempt. Kicker Sam Crosa has had his struggles. While perfect on PATs (37 of 37), he has missed four of his 11 field goal attempts, with all four misses coming from within 40-yards.


The South Florida Bulls is 4-5 on the season but just 2-3 in Conference play after its 7-17 loss to Temple last week. The Bulls have lost two of its last three, overall, with the other loss being a 3-35 blowout at the hands of Navy.

The Bulls are not outstanding at any given facet of the game. South Florida allows 27.1 points per game while managing 27.0 itself, on the heels of a passing offense that is just No. 111 among FBS schools and a rushing attack that is about average at best (167.1 yards per). Jordan McCloud has shown some promise at quarterback, but he struggles with accuracy and is not a long-thrower. USF averages just 6.2 yards-per-pass while completing 56.8 percent of those. McCloud has registered 11 TDs to his six INTs, and his passer rating is fair at 123.7. He has been sacked 27 times, though, three per game, for a total loss of 138 yards this season.

McCloud has done a good job with his rushes, attempting 77 for 237 yards and four touchdowns. Lead running back Jordan Cronkite has 608 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 5.2 yards-per-carry. The wealth at wide receiver is spread between seven passing targets, with all totaling 100 yards or better on the season. Mitchell Wilcox leads the team from the tight end position, with his 20 catches for 309 yards and a team-tying-best four TDs.

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