Sunday MLB Preview – Padres at Giants

The Giants look to gain more ground in the divisional race by sending their ace to the hill in the series finale.

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants

San Diego had its five-game winning streak snapped with Saturday’s 3-2 loss to San Francisco at AT&T Park.  “We had our chances,” said manager Bud Black, whose team lost to the Giants for just the second time in 10 chances this season.  The Padres left a season-high 16 runners on base and were 2-for-18 with runners in scoring position.  The club has posted an impressive 13-5 record on Sundays this year (+880), which is  their best winning percentage of any day.  San Diego has won each of its last eight Sunday games and 11 of the last 12.   With the team being 21 games over .500, it’s important to note that the only other San Diego teams to reach that mark at any point of the season are the two National League champion clubs (1998 and 1994).  The Padres bring in a solid 23-13 record in day games this season (+1,160) and the total stands at 17-14 O/U in those contests.

Padres starting pitcher Wade LeBlanc is 6-10 with a 3.51 ERA in 21 starts this season and is coming off a 4-1 home victory over the Pirates.  In that outing, he allowed just a single run and five hits over 5.2 innings of work.  The left-hander is 3-5 with a 4.86 ERA in nine road starts, as opposing hitters are hitting a combined .300 against him.  He will be making just his eighth daytime start, posting a 2-3 mark and 3.02 ERA, surrendering six home runs in 41.2 frames.  In three career games against the Giants, LeBlanc is a perfect 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA, while giving up two earned runs over 4.2 innings in his only outing versus San Francisco this season.  The offense has scored just 44 runs in his starts this season (3.22 average), which is the third-lowest run support in the majors.

San Francisco sits 2 1/2 games back of today’s opponent in the NL West race, as the club snapped a six-game home losing streak in the series with yesterday’s win.  “They’ve owned us all year,” Giants first baseman Aubrey Huff said.  “It seems like we match up well.”  The club has still been outscored by a 32-21 margin in the 10 games of this season series against San Diego.  They just come out on the winning end most of the time.”  Since the All-Star break, the Giants have gone 20-10, which is the third-best mark in baseball over that span.  San Francisco is a solid 9-2 as a home favorite of -175 to -200 this season (+510) and the total is 8-2 O/U in that span.  In 31 games against left-handed starters, the team is 17-14 on the season (+10), while averaging 4.4 runs per contest and hitting for a combined .266 average.

Giants starting pitcher Tim Lincecum is 11-6 with a 3.41 ERA in 24 starts this season, but is coming in on a two-game losing streak.  Over those two outings, he has allowed nine earned runs and 14 hits over just 10.1 innings.  The right-hander is 7-4 with a 3.59 ERA in 12 home starts, tallying 81 strikeouts in 77.2 frames.  In 10 daytime starts, Lincecum has posted a 4-2 mark and 2.91 ERA, as opposing hitters are hitting for a .235 combined average.  In 11 career outings versus the Padres, the two-time Cy Young  winner is 4-2 with a 1.67 ERA.

Bettors will find the Padres being a solid 42-17 in their last 59 games following a loss and the over is 6-1 in that situation in the last seven chances.  As illustrated above, the Giants have collected a smallish profit against southpaw starters, but are 8-2 in their last 10 opportunities.

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