2k Classic Championship
Tip off: 7:30 PM EST, Friday, Nov 16, 2012
Spread: ALA -3
Total: 131.5
M/L: ALA -150, VIL +130
Betting Odds from Bookmaker
NOVA
Villanova went 13-19 last season and 5-13 in the Big East. They failed to qualify for postseason play and this year there is reason to think things can be different. Coach Jay Wright redesigned his coaching staff and though Maalik Wayns and Dominic Cheek departed for the pros, Wright remains focused on making the Wildcats a better team.
“I’m still excited about it and am excited about this team. I think the guys we have are quality enough to fight through this, and I think they learned from last season,” Wright said.
The Wildcats are going to be reliant upon two newcomers in the backcourt: freshman Ryan Arcidiacono and Wake Forest transfer Tony Chennault. Arcidiancono is a top recruit and is a good scorer capable of being a good point guard. The 6’3″ guard from Neshaminy HS will start from day one, and Chennault received a waiver so he can play immediately…He started 31 games last year for Wake and put up 9 points per game and 2.8 assists per game. They’ll rotate in Darrun Hilliard and Archref Yacoubou in the backcourt. All three played roles off the bench for the Wildcats last year.
The front court is the strength of the Wildcats, though. Mouphtaou Yarou is back as a senior this year and is a great shot blocker who should keep Nova tough on the interior. He averaged 11.3 points per game, 8.2 rebounds per game, and will be joined by power forward JayVaungn Pinkston. Pinkston started 22 games last year and put up 9.6 points per game while grabbing 5.2 rebounds per night. He will need to improve on his 40 percent field goal shooting, but should be ready to make a bigger impact this year as a sophomore.
The Wildcats have some pieces in place, but it is still going to take time, and this isn’t a typical Nova squad loaded with top recruits. They have almost no shot at an NCAA tournament invite this year, but will try to finish higher than the 14th place prediction in the Big East yielded by Athlon Magazine. Winning more than last year’s 13 games will be an accomplishment for this team, though.
BAMA
Last year, Anthony Grant’s Crimson Tide squad finished 21-12 with a 9-7 record in the SEC. They lost in the opening round of the NCAA tournament to a tough Creighton squad, and now they’ve lost JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell.
The Crimson Tide been a top tier defensive team, and held opponents to just 58.1 points per game last season. That is unlikely to change, as Grant’s teams are typically strong on defense. They also out rebounded opponents last season by a margin of 2.6 per game, and they hit their free throws (71.1%). That’s the formula for a decent team, but getting more than an NIT invite might be a stretch for the Tide.
Replacing Green and Mitchell in the frontcourt will be Nick Jacobs and Rodney Cooper. Jacobs scored 10+ points four times in SEC games and averaged 6.1 points and 3.6 rebounds as a freshman. He should be able to double his scoring output this year.
It would be nice for Alabama if Moussa Gueye were healthy, but the 7-footer hasn’t been on the court. He only made brief stints in 12 games due to offseason knee surgery and the Senegal native has been a disappointment. If he’s healthy, this squad is a lot better.
The backcourt is the strength of Alabama with Trevor Releford leading the way. He has all-conference talent and has logged significant minutes. He started 66 games over the last two seasons and improved his scoring to 12 points per game last year.
Having a better squad around him should help him elevate his assist production at least to what it was his freshman year when he dished out 125 assists.
Trevor Lacey should make a big impact as a sophomore, a former five-star recruit. he was the fourth leading scorer last year at 7.3 points per game, and along with Levi Randolph, he’ll assume a larger role. Randolph saw time in all 33 games last season, averaging 27.5 minutes per game and putting up 6.5 points per game and grabbing 3.9 rebounds per game.
Villanova Betting Trends:
Wildcats are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 neutral game sites, 14-36-1 ATS in their last 51 vs teams with winning SU records, 11-33-1 ATS in their sat 45 overall, 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 vs teams with winning pcts above .600, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 on Fridays.
Alabama Betting Trends:
Crimson Tide are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs teams with winning pcts above .600, 5-1-1 ATS vs teams with winning SU records, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs Big East opponents.
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