{"id":9261,"date":"2010-10-23T06:45:01","date_gmt":"2010-10-23T11:45:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/?p=9261"},"modified":"2010-10-23T02:40:18","modified_gmt":"2010-10-23T07:40:18","slug":"college-football-picks-fade-the-public-play","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/college-football-picks-fade-the-public-play-9261\/","title":{"rendered":"College Football Picks: Fade the Public Play"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Oklahoma
For this weeks college football picks fade the public edition we are going to fire away on the under in tonights OU\/Mizz game<\/figcaption><\/figure>The Missouri Tigers have been a pleasant surprise this college football season. The Tigers are 6-0 and coming off a big win at College Station. Their schedule gets much tougher this week as they welcome the Oklahoma Sooners to Columbia.<\/p>\n

The Sooners opened as 2 \u00bd point road favorites and the\u00a0college football line\u00a0has moved up slightly to 3 points. While that is a tempting play, the total looks more attractive. The line started at 52 \u00bd and has come up to 53 points at most sites. The betting public is murdering the over, playing it at better than 95%. However, fading the public favorite in this situation seems like a good play.<\/p>\n

Both teams have potentially explosive offenses \u2013 there\u2019s no denying that. But don\u2019t forget about how good these defenses have been. First, the Missouri Tigers have been off the charts. In terms of scoring defense, Mizzou is #2 in the nation at 10.8 points per game. Only TCU is ranked better. In their past 3 games, they\u2019re giving up a little more than 7 points a game, and they held an offensively capable Aggies team to just 9 points in College Station. Teams are averaging 3.5 yards per carry, while quarterbacks are completing passes at a 58.8% clip. In total, the Tigers are giving up just 329 yards per game.<\/p>\n

Oklahoma\u2019s defense has been solid, though not as dominating as Missouri\u2019s. The Sooner D is ranked #28 in scoring defense, giving up just 19 points a game. They shutout the Iowa State Cyclones in their last game. Against Texas, the Sooners gave up 20 points; against Florida State, they gave up 17 points and 7 came on a meaningless, last second score when the starters were out of the game. They\u2019re giving up 4 yards per carry and a pass completion percentage of 54.1. All in all, the D is yielding a respectable 373 yards per game.<\/p>\n

The situational numbers see Missouri slowing the game down and Oklahoma speeding it up. Over the past 3 seasons, Mizzou has played the total 4-9 at home, 2-5 as an underdog, 3-7 in October, and 9-10 against conference opponents. Oklahoma, over the same time period, has played the total 6-4 on the road, 17-12 as a favorite, 6-5 in October, and 12-7 against conference opponents.<\/p>\n

With respect to these numbers, something has to give. Considering all of the square money coming in on the over, we like the opposite side in this situation. One reason is that both teams will likely come out conservatively. If this was being played in Norman, the under wouldn\u2019t seem so good. But in Columbia, chances are that Bob Stoops will play it closer to the vest. He\u2019ll certainly want to take some shots, and the offense is, by its nature, quite explosive. But Stoops will be reluctant to let his players make mistakes to get behind on the road against a good team. On the flip side, Mizzou has to understand that they can\u2019t outscore Oklahoma. They just don\u2019t have the talent on offense that the Sooners have. That\u2019s not to say they have a poor offense \u2013 they\u2019re actually pretty good. But if they get into a shootout with Oklahoma, they\u2019ll likely lose. The best chance Missouri has of winning this game is to out-hit the Sooners. If they can make this a physical, smash-mouth football game, then the Tiger defense can take control of the game. That\u2019s where Mizzou has an advantage \u2013 on defense, not offense.<\/p>\n

The two offenses in this game will catch a lot of publicity, and the public obviously likes the over. But don\u2019t underestimate how good the two defenses have been playing. The total is getting pushed up by the squares, and it might get as high as 55 points. Wait until you can get the best number, and back the under.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t forget to sign up for Maddux Sports\u2019 premium college football picks. The wiseguys at Maddux have been dominating the spread so far. All of their picks are guaranteed winners, so you have nothing to lose.\u00a0 This Saturday we have a rare 20 unit play and we are undefeated on those 20 unit releases so far this season.\u00a0 Dont miss this easy winner and visit our college football picks<\/a> page to get our Saturday package.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Missouri Tigers have been a pleasant surprise this college football season. The Tigers are 6-0 and coming off a big win at College Station. Their schedule gets much tougher this week as they welcome the Oklahoma Sooners to Columbia. The Sooners opened as 2 \u00bd point road favorites and the\u00a0college football line\u00a0has moved up […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":203,"featured_media":4106,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[200,1444],"tags":[1923,2274,2098,2620,433,2814,408,1533],"class_list":["post-9261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-football","category-headlines","tag-college-football-betting","tag-college-football-odds","tag-college-football-picks","tag-fade-public-favorite","tag-missouri-tigers","tag-ncaa-football-lines","tag-oklahoma-sooners","tag-under"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9261","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/203"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9261"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9261\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9701,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9261\/revisions\/9701"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4106"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9261"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9261"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9261"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}