{"id":9045,"date":"2010-10-16T07:00:53","date_gmt":"2010-10-16T12:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/?p=9045"},"modified":"2010-10-16T01:14:19","modified_gmt":"2010-10-16T06:14:19","slug":"weekly-college-football-picks-fading-the-public-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/weekly-college-football-picks-fading-the-public-edition-9045\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly College Football Picks: Fading the Public Edition"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"
We will use the Texas Tech Red Raiders as our fade the public weekly college football picks<\/figcaption><\/figure>The Oklahoma State Cowboys will put their undefeated season on the line this Saturday afternoon when they take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Lubbock, Texas. The Cowboys won this match-up last year in Stillwater, Oklahoma, 24-17.<\/p>\n

The betting line for this game has seen a significant swing. The road Cowboys opened as a 1 point favorite, but the college football spreads\u00a0moved to Texas Tech favored by 3 \u00bd points. Then some buyback on Ok State brought it back to 3 points, which is where most books are currently sitting. The public is all over the Cowboys, backing them at nearly 80%. But in this case, fading the public favorite is a solid play.<\/p>\n

The line has seen some big reverse action, thanks to a lot of sharp money coming in on Tech. A line move of 4 points has created some value for Ok State, but following sharp action and giving up a few points is often the price you pay for wiseguy advice. There\u2019s a good chance some bettors played Tech early at +1, and then bet Ok State at +3 \u00bd, and are hoping for the middle play. Considering the buyback and public action on Ok State, chances are the line will come down to 2 \u00bd, which is a safer play.<\/p>\n

At first glance, the technical numbers seem to support the Cowboys in this situation. But a few key numbers make a play on Tech seem like a better move. Against the spread over the past three seasons, Ok State is 7-1 in October, 10-3 after 2 or more straight up wins, 6-3 on the road, and 7-6 against teams with a winning record. On the flip side, Tech is 6-6 ats at home, 10-10 as a favorite, 6-5 in October, and 9-4 against teams with a winning record. But keep in mind, the Cowboys are 2-6 ats as an underdog and 0-5 as an underdog of 3 \u00bd to 10 points. Tech is 4-2 ats as a favorite of 3 \u00bd to 10 points and 2-0 as a home favorite of 3 \u00bd to 7 points. Additionally, Tech has the revenge factor on its side.<\/p>\n

Texas Tech has had to adjust to a new coaching staff. With a new head coach, defensive coordinator, and offensive coordinator, it\u2019s easy to understand why the Red Raiders have had some early season struggles. But they looked much better on offense against Baylor, and the defense wasn\u2019t bad. They gave up 38 points, but most were due to special teams or big plays. Overall, the defense looked ok.<\/p>\n

Oklahoma State has played well, but they\u2019ve only played one road game, which was last week at Louisiana-Lafayette. They won the game and covered, but they were tied at halftime against a middling Sun Belt team. The truth is that the Cowboys\u2019 defense isn\u2019t that good. The offense is explosive, but they\u2019ve also benefited from playing some terrible defenses, which is why they\u2019ve played over every week. Their toughest game to date was against Texas A&M, which the Aggies gave away with bad turnovers. In terms of total yards, A&M outgained the Cowboys by nearly 200 yards \u2013 in Stillwater!<\/p>\n

It\u2019s just a matter of time before the Ok State defense is exposed and the Cowboys get their first loss. That will come this Saturday afternoon in Lubbock. In games played in Lubbock since 1992, Texas Tech is 7-0 straight up and 6-0 ats against Ok State. In 2008, Tech won by 36 points as a 4 point favorite.<\/p>\n

The wiseguys are playing Tech heavily, and for good reason. They are the play to pay here. Wait and see if you can get 2 \u00bd points, but don\u2019t be afraid to back the Red Raiders. Take Texas Tech and lay the points.<\/p>\n

The professionals at Maddux Sports are on an unbelievable college football run. They\u2019ve isolated the weekend\u2019s best plays, so don\u2019t forget to sign up for our premium, guaranteed picks so you can bring in some serious cash.\u00a0 Currently $100 players are up over $10,000 on the season so far and plenty of profit is still left to be made.\u00a0 Get our weekly college football picks and dont be left out in the cold this Saturday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Oklahoma State Cowboys will put their undefeated season on the line this Saturday afternoon when they take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Lubbock, Texas. The Cowboys won this match-up last year in Stillwater, Oklahoma, 24-17. The betting line for this game has seen a significant swing. The road Cowboys opened as a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":203,"featured_media":3994,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[200,1444],"tags":[1923,2274,2620,2814,1141,440],"class_list":["post-9045","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-football","category-headlines","tag-college-football-betting","tag-college-football-odds","tag-fade-public-favorite","tag-ncaa-football-lines","tag-oklahoma-state-cowboys","tag-texas-tech-red-raiders"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9045","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/203"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9045"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9045\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9175,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9045\/revisions\/9175"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3994"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9045"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9045"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9045"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}