{"id":7378,"date":"2010-09-10T15:09:46","date_gmt":"2010-09-10T20:09:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/?p=7378"},"modified":"2010-09-10T15:09:46","modified_gmt":"2010-09-10T20:09:46","slug":"fade-the-public-football-pick-look-for-iowa-iowa-state-to-go-under-the-total","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/fade-the-public-football-pick-look-for-iowa-iowa-state-to-go-under-the-total-7378\/","title":{"rendered":"Fade the Public Football Pick: Look For Iowa-Iowa State to Go Under the Total"},"content":{"rendered":"

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With guys like Adrian Clayborn on the field, the Under looks like the right way to go<\/figcaption><\/figure>The Iowa \u2013 Iowa State football game is a great rivalry. Bragging rights for the state of Iowa are on the line, and with the Hawkeyes perched in the Top 10 of both the AP and Writer\u2019s polls, even more is at stake this year.<\/p>\n

The home Hawks opened as 13 \u00bd point favorites, and despite the public playing Iowa around 75%, the line has remained mostly steady with a book or two touching 14 points. The spread looks like a dangerous play in this game, especially considering ISU is 7-5 straight up over the past 12 seasons. The best play in this match-up has to be the point total. The total opened at 44 points but books are now putting the game at either 45 or 45 \u00bd. With about 60% of the public playing the over, don\u2019t be surprised to see the total move to 46 at most sites. That being said, fading this public favorite looks like a wise move. With Iowa\u2019s defense and Iowa State\u2019s inability to score touchdowns against the Hawks in recent years, the under is the play to pay here.<\/p>\n

First off, the technical numbers in this game clearly support the under. Over the past two seasons the Hawkeyes have played the total 1-5 as a favorite of 10 \u00bd to 21 points, 0-3 against the Big 12, and 1-7 in non-conference games. On the flip side, Iowa State has played the total 3-5 against non-conference teams, 0-3 against the Big 10, but 5-2 as an underdog between 10 \u00bd and 21 points. In the series since 1992, these two teams have played the total 2-7.<\/p>\n

The Hawkeyes have one of the nation\u2019s top defenses, including one of the best front 4. Three seniors anchor the line, but none as valuable as defensive end, Adrian Clayborn. Clayborn recorded 11 \u00bd sacks and 70 tackles last year. He also blocked a punt at Penn State and ran it back for a touchdown, which ultimately won the game for Iowa. Joining Clayborn are two seniors and one junior who together totaled 15 \u00bd sacks last season. All combined, Iowa\u2019s front four brings back 27 sacks from last year!<\/p>\n

The linebackers are tough, but relatively inexperienced. The secondary is top-notch, especially the safeties. Tyler Sash (6 sacks) and Brent Greenwood (3 INT) clean up whatever gets through the front 7, which isn\u2019t a lot. Last year the Hawks gave up a meager 15 points per game. Don\u2019t be surprised if they go under that total this season.<\/p>\n

The Cyclones have a productive offense, but not against Iowa. Against the Hawks, the Cyclones haven\u2019t scored a touchdown in 14 quarters, although they won the game 3 years ago with 5 field goals, 15-13. Quarterback Austen Arnaud has thrown a combined 6 picks against Iowa over the past 2 seasons, including a 35-3 drubbing in Ames last year. Iowa State doesn\u2019t have the depth to play with Iowa, and they don\u2019t have the playmakers to break big gains, either.<\/p>\n

On defense the Cyclones have gotten better. Against Northern Illinois last week, the Cyclones held the Huskies to under 250 total yards, 3-13 on 3rd down, and collected 3 interceptions. Last year the \u2018Clones allowed just over 21 points per game, which was their best total since 2005. Also, cornerback David Sims \u2013 ISU\u2019s top defender \u2013 returns from his one game suspension this week.<\/p>\n

Personally, I think this is a tough spread to figure. The Hawks seem like they should be favored by more than two touchdowns, but the game also has the feel of an unexpected upset in the making. So I\u2019m not going either way. I will, however, recommend fading the public on the game\u2019s over. The under is the way to go in this match-up, and if you\u2019re a Cyclone fan, cross your fingers and hope for a big upset.<\/p>\n

Bookmaker is currently offering the best number on this game for Under bettors.\u00a0 They are also offering a 20% signup bonus to all new online bettors, a great deal to boost your bankroll this football season.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Iowa \u2013 Iowa State football game is a great rivalry. Bragging rights for the state of Iowa are on the line, and with the Hawkeyes perched in the Top 10 of both the AP and Writer\u2019s polls, even more is at stake this year. The home Hawks opened as 13 \u00bd point favorites, and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":203,"featured_media":3992,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[200,1444],"tags":[1923,2274,2620,1281,2666,2814],"class_list":["post-7378","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-football","category-headlines","tag-college-football-betting","tag-college-football-odds","tag-fade-public-favorite","tag-iowa-hawkeyes","tag-iowa-state-cyclones","tag-ncaa-football-lines"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7378","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/203"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7378"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7378\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7397,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7378\/revisions\/7397"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3992"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7378"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7378"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7378"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}