{"id":14688,"date":"2011-04-05T16:13:42","date_gmt":"2011-04-05T21:13:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/?p=14688"},"modified":"2011-04-05T16:36:59","modified_gmt":"2011-04-05T21:36:59","slug":"free-mlb-betting-preview-houston-astros-at-cincinnati-reds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/free-mlb-betting-preview-houston-astros-at-cincinnati-reds-14688\/","title":{"rendered":"Free MLB Betting Preview: Houston Astros At Cincinnati Reds"},"content":{"rendered":"

Houston Astros (0-3) AT Cincinnati Reds (3-0)<\/strong>
\nApril 5, 2011 at 6:35 PM EST<\/strong>
\nSP:\u00a0 Houston – J. Happ; Cincinnati – M. Leake<\/strong>
\nRunline:\u00a0 Cin -1.5<\/strong>
\nOpening Moneyline:\u00a0 Cin -165 \/ Hou +145<\/strong>
\nCurrent Moneyline:\u00a0 Cin -155 \/ Hou +145<\/strong>
\nOpening Total:\u00a0 8.5<\/strong>
\nCurrent Total: 8.5<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
Leake takes the mound tonight in the series opener<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The Astros and Reds have had opposite fortunes through their respective first series this season.\u00a0 The Reds swept the division rival Brewers 3 games to none, while the Astros were swept by the Phillies.\u00a0 The quick start by the Reds will give them an early heads up on their NL Central rivals.\u00a0 If they win today, it would be the first 4-0 start since 1990, a year in which the Reds won the World Series – their last World Series in fact.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhoever we play against, it\u2019s very important,\u201d Cincinnati’s Brandon Phillips said.\u00a0 \u201cWe\u2019ve got to try to get as many wins as possible because we\u2019re not trying to wait until the last minute to try to clinch something. Of course, it\u2019s important to beat teams in our division.\u201d<\/p>\n

Phillips is off to a quick start.\u00a0 He hit 3 of 6 on Sunday against the Brewers, including a 3 run homer.\u00a0 Teammate Ryan Hanigan also went wild, hitting 4 of 4 with 2 homers and 4 RBIs.\u00a0 Manager Dusty Baker remarked on the team effort, commenting that “everybody contributed.”\u00a0 And indeed, if everyone continues to contribute the Reds could open up a large lead on the Division Rivals and make a strong run at a pennant.<\/p>\n

It bodes well for 23 year old starting pitcher Mike Leake.\u00a0 Leake went 8-4 in 2010, posting a 4.23 ERA.\u00a0 He’s only the 21st player since the draft began in 1965 to go straight to the majors from college (only the 15th pitcher).\u00a0 It proved to be a wise move for the Reds as he won his first five games before going only 3-4 to close out the season, but Leake had a 2.33 ERA in three starts against the Astros.\u00a0 His PECOTA projections predict an 8-9 season for Leake with a projected ERA of 4.88.\u00a0 Also to his credit, Leake can hit.\u00a0 He batted .299 in college and even had a 2.89 TaV (total value above replacement) from the plate in 2010.<\/p>\n

Astros opposing pitcher J.A. Happ did not face the Reds last season, and had a non decision in a 3-4 loss to the Reds in 2009.\u00a0 Happ’s PECOTA lies out a 10-9 season with a prjoected ERA of 4.35.\u00a0 He’s not a great pitcher with career averages of 6.8 strikeouts, 3.8 walks, and 1.1 home runs per 9 innings.\u00a0 Somehow, amazingly, however,\u00a0 he posted an ERA under 4 in all 5 of his first 5 seasons, suggesting that he has mostly been a case of extreme fortune.\u00a0 His .273 BABIP will eventually transpire into his record and the 10-9 projection seems to be about right for a very average pitcher.<\/p>\n

Some betting trends:<\/p>\n

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games and the Astros are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games.\u00a0 The total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 on the road and the Astros are 1-7 SU in their last 8 on the road.\u00a0 Houston is also 6-19 SU in their last 25 against the Reds while Houston is 2-11 SU in their last 13 road games against the Reds.<\/p>\n

The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Cincinnati’s last 25 games at home and they are 5-1 SU in their last 6 at home.\u00a0 Cincinnati is 19-6 SU in their last 25 games against Houston and they are 11-2 SU in their last 13 at home against the Houston Astros.<\/p>\n

Leake is the superior pitcher in this battle and the Reds are the superior team.\u00a0 It would be shocking if the Astros found a way to pull out a victory against the victory hungry Reds.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Houston Astros (0-3) AT Cincinnati Reds (3-0) April 5, 2011 at 6:35 PM EST SP:\u00a0 Houston – J. Happ; Cincinnati – M. Leake Runline:\u00a0 Cin -1.5 Opening Moneyline:\u00a0 Cin -165 \/ Hou +145 Current Moneyline:\u00a0 Cin -155 \/ Hou +145 Opening Total:\u00a0 8.5 Current Total: 8.5 The Astros and Reds have had opposite fortunes through […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40250,"featured_media":4585,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1444],"tags":[78,1039],"class_list":["post-14688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-headlines","tag-cincinnati-reds","tag-houston-astros"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14688","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/40250"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14688"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14688\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14690,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14688\/revisions\/14690"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4585"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14688"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14688"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14688"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}