{"id":14488,"date":"2011-03-28T15:22:43","date_gmt":"2011-03-28T20:22:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/?p=14488"},"modified":"2011-03-29T01:45:10","modified_gmt":"2011-03-29T06:45:10","slug":"american-league-east-betting-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/american-league-east-betting-preview-14488\/","title":{"rendered":"American League East Betting Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST DIVISION PREVIEW<\/strong><\/p>\n

With the baseball season beginning, it’s time to take a look at the teams in the AL East and weigh their chances to contend both for the MLB crown and for a division title.\u00a0 Bodog’s Baseball Futures offer the betting lines used in this article.<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Derek Jeter is emblematic of the Yankees' Aging Roster<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Tampa Bay Rays<\/strong><\/p>\n

Odds to Win World Series:\u00a0 25\/1<\/strong>
\nOdds to Win AL Pennant:\u00a0 11\/1<\/strong>
\nOdds to Win AL East:\u00a0 +800<\/strong><\/p>\n

2010:\u00a0 96-66, 1st in AL East<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Rays had a glaring hole in their lineup last year despite their overall success.\u00a0 In 2008, they were first in the league in WXRL (Win Expectation Above Replacement, Lineup Adjusted) and fell to 11th in 2009, and the team went from being a 97 win standout team to an 84 win team in 2009.\u00a0 The solution was clear to Rays management and coaches:\u00a0 the team needed a closer.\u00a0 Rays owner Stuart Sternberg said on December 4th 2009 that the team would not be bringing in a “$7 million closer,” and yet, somehow they did indeed find a way to do just that, as the Braves made a salary dump move and jettisoned closer Rafael Soriano to Tampa.<\/p>\n

The Rays have been able to get things done on a shoestring budget.\u00a0 In 2008, the franchise won the division crown despite rostering only a $43.8 million payroll.\u00a0 In 2009, they increased their payroll by 44% and they beat out two teams that combined to pay out more than five times that in salary and the teams drew nearly four times as many fans and the Rays.<\/p>\n

The Rays have built a good pitching staff through their farm system.\u00a0 Four of their five starters are their own products (the exception being Matt Garza), including David Price, the first overall pick in 2007 and who was considered to be one of, if not the top, prospect going into the 2009 season.\u00a0 Tampa’s starters all ranked in the top 32 in SNLVAR (Support Nuetral Lineup-adjusted Value Added Replacement).<\/p>\n

Despite playing in one of the best hitter’s parks in the MLB, Tampa still only ranked 13th in batting average.\u00a0 However, they were fourth in “True Average” because they led the league in walks.\u00a0 Ben Zobrist and Pena were both in the top 6 in walks.\u00a0 Franchise cornerstone Evan Longoria tied Josh Hamilton for the league lead in WARP (Wins above replacement player) and ranked 6th in TAv (True Average), while Carl Crawford ranked 11th in True Average.<\/p>\n

The reason the Rays won the AL East but are still +800 to win it again has to do with the Rays having lost Carl Crawford and Pena.\u00a0 The move made sense for the Rays, who are looking to replace Crawford with a top prospect in Desmond Jennings, whose upside has been said to be greater than Crawford’s.\u00a0 Pena is going to be more difficult to replace, and there isn’t any solid plan in tact to provide that replacement.<\/p>\n

For the Rays to continue to hang with the Yankees and Red Sox, they are going to have to make some moves.\u00a0 They have a surplus of young pitching talent that they could deal to fill the number of holes that they have offensively.\u00a0 They have the talent to possibly repeat as division champs, but to be taken seriously as contenders they are going to have to improve their hitting.<\/p>\n

New York Yankees<\/strong><\/p>\n

Odds to Win World Series:\u00a0 7\/1<\/strong>
\nOdds to Win AL Pennant:\u00a0 7\/2<\/strong>
\nOdds to Win AL East:\u00a0 +190<\/strong><\/p>\n

2010:\u00a0 95-67, 2st in AL East<\/strong><\/p>\n

For a team with such a healthy record and such a promising season at one point (On September 4th they were 86-50 with the best record in baseball), the Yankees found a way to fall apart when it counted most – during the stretch run of the regular season (They closed the season 9-17 through the last 26 games) and into the playoffs against the Texas Rangers after beating the Twins.<\/p>\n

GM Brian Cashman had to admit that the Yankees were beginning to show signs of their age with their lack of endurance and sustainability.\u00a0 “We didn’t look old against Minnesota (in the division series) and that was a week before.\u00a0 Texas made us look old.”\u00a0 The problem, of course, is that the Yankees did not merely look old; they are old.\u00a0 They had the fourth oldest hitters and the second oldest pitching staff in the major leagues.<\/p>\n

Clearly, it is win now for the Yankees, and thankfully for fans and management, and as indicated by Bodog odds, they are in a position to do so.\u00a0 Unfortunately, and on the other hand, the team is not getting any better from last season and the only way to counteract their horrid play in September is to write it off as a fluke.\u00a0 Whether or not this is plausible and fair is a matter of debate of course, as when a team begins to get up in years, injuries and inconsistencies can plague them horribly.<\/p>\n

The team really only has three “young” players:\u00a0 Robinson Cano, Brett Gardner, and Jesus Montero (who may not even get the chance to play being saddled behind Russell Martin).\u00a0 Cano is a legitimate star and represents the future of the franchise, when they eventually do decide to implode the roster and rebuild (if they ever do; they could flounder in mediocrity for years due to the pressure put on the Yankees by their fans).\u00a0 The Yankees made it clear through their lack of pursuit of young pitchers to replace an aging staff that they have no plans to rebuild immediately and are instead looking to make another postseason run with the same players as last year.<\/p>\n

Just two years removed from a 2009 championship team, the Yankees are still one of the favorites to win the crown this year.\u00a0 They still have a very potent lineup offensively, and with the exception of a catatonic Jeter, their defense is still exceptional too.\u00a0 There may not be much saved for the future, but the Yankees appear poised to make another run at a title.<\/p>\n

Boston Red Sox<\/strong><\/p>\n

Odds to Win World Series:\u00a0 9\/2<\/strong>
\nOdds to Win AL Pennant:\u00a0 11\/5<\/strong>
\nOdds to Win AL East:\u00a0 -160<\/strong><\/p>\n

2010:\u00a0 89-73, 3rd in AL East<\/strong><\/p>\n

To call last season a failure for the Red Sox because they failed to reach the post season would not be a fair judgment.\u00a0 They lost over 1,100 days in player injuries to the DL and had to cope with the decision to let Jason Bay walk to the Mets, a move widely criticized as one that would cripple the Boston hitting rotation.<\/p>\n

The problem is that the Bay decision really had no bearing on the lack of success.\u00a0 The team’s three best hitters (Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, and Dustin Pedroia) missed a combined 163 games and the pitching staff didn’t stay healthy either, making it near impossible for the Red Sox to compete with a patchwork of gap filling players, players with no real long term prospects in the team’s plan for success.<\/p>\n

Oddly enough, despite the injury curse,\u00a0 the Red Sox remained one of the best offensive teams in baseball.\u00a0 They had a true batting average of .273, the best in the American league, down slightly from 2009 (.277), but nonetheless the best in the American League.\u00a0 As the season wore on, the Sox ended up using players that doubtlessly belonged in the minor leagues, and yet the Sox remained in playoff contention until the final week of the season.<\/p>\n

The reason, of course, for a team that hit the ball so well the only way to lose is pitching.\u00a0 Despite having talented hurlers Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Clay Buchholz, the Red Sox ended up with one of the worst pitching staffs in recent memory; again, largely due to injuries. Boston ranked 25th in WXRL.\u00a0 From August 1st onward, the WXRL was 0.4, 29th in the majors.\u00a0 The Red Sox lacked a third option in the pen and the result was too much wear and tear on Bard and Papelbon, a move that ultimately led to collapses late in games as Bard and Papelbon threw way too many innings.<\/p>\n

The Sox enter the 2011 season as a strong offensive team, however.\u00a0 Despite losing Martinez and Adrian Beltre, they did acquire Adrian Gonzalez, one of the top hitters in the MLB.\u00a0 Gonzalez will likely more than replace the loss of Beltre and should fuel the Sox’s offense to be one of the better in the league.\u00a0 They also signed Carl Crawford to a very fat and hefty contract and expect him to add a lot of firepower at the leadoff position.\u00a0 And as bad as the pitching was last year, the staff is still very strong and could potentially be one of the best in baseball.<\/p>\n

Toronto Blue Jays<\/strong><\/p>\n

Odds to Win World Series:\u00a0 50\/1<\/strong>
\nOdds to Win AL Pennant:\u00a0 25\/1<\/strong>
\nOdds to Win AL East:\u00a0 +1600<\/strong><\/p>\n

2010:\u00a0 85-77, 4th in AL East<\/strong><\/p>\n

For a team with a plus-.500 record, the future could not possibly be more bleak than the Toronto Blue Jays’.\u00a0 Former GM J.P. Ricciardi absolutely decimated the farm system through bad trades and left the Jays with an albatross contract in Vernon Wells, further inhibiting the team’s ability to retool, restructure, and ultimately, rebuild.<\/p>\n

Alex Anthopoulos came in and attempted to remedy that issue by expanding the scouting budget and hiring a ton of scouts, but building a farm system takes time and it will be years before the Blue Jays begin to reap the benefits of Anthopoulos’ work.\u00a0 Fortunately, the Jays were able to strike prospect gold when they dealt away Roy Halladay, bringing in three top 100 prospects to grow in the minor leagues.\u00a0 Later trades involving Alex Gonzalez, Brandon Morrow, and Brett Wallace brought in still more prospects and it signaled that the Jays have fully entered rebuilding mode by cutting ties with their top players for future studs.\u00a0 They further continued that trend by dealing their best pitcher, Shaun Marcum, for second baseman Brett Lawrie.\u00a0 These moves are the reason that the Jays are such long shots despite a decent record last year.\u00a0 Last year represented the last hold-over from a previously more talented major league roster.<\/p>\n

Clearly, the Jays are using the Tampa Bay Rays as their blueprint for success.\u00a0 The teams play in the same division and it took years of building through the farm system for the Rays to emerge as a true powerhouse.\u00a0 They have assembled a nice collection of cheap pitching talent and should be able to build their team around that talent.\u00a0 If nothing else, they could ship out a pitcher or two for a hitter or two that hits for average, since the Jays already have enough power (They hit 257 homers last year, the third most EVER) to bring in the hitters once they get on base.<\/p>\n

While the Jays’ chances of winning much of anything this year are very remote, the acquisition of so many prospects does bode well for the future and Jays fans know that for every stay in the cellar of the AL East, there is a future chance that one day they will follow the path of the Rays and ascend to the top after years of floundering in mediocrity.<\/p>\n

Baltimore Orioles<\/strong><\/p>\n

Odds to Win World Series:\u00a0 75\/1<\/strong>
\nOdds to Win AL Pennant:\u00a0 35\/1<\/strong>
\nOdds to Win AL East:\u00a0 +1800<\/strong><\/p>\n

2010:\u00a0 66-96, Last (5th) in AL East<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Orioles haven’t been relevant in the AL since the days of Cal Ripken Jr. and have continually started the season well enough just to fall apart in the second half of the year and lead themselves to another cellar dweller type of year that Baltimore fans are beginning to tire of.\u00a0 Then, the Orioles began to signal change by hiring Buck Showalter. The result was nearly miraculous.\u00a0 The O’s closed the season with a 34-23 record under Showalter and proved the value of having a top tier manager coaching the team.\u00a0 Had that pace been maintained all season, the O’s would have sat atop the AL East, instead of at the bottom of it.<\/p>\n

The turnaround is perplexing.\u00a0 The manager Showalter replaced, Trembley, was known for being able to do all the right things with young lineups.\u00a0 What did Showalter actually do that brought about such a dramatic change in the O’s fortunes?\u00a0 There were no ground breaking trades or call ups and few reasons to pinpoint the drastic shift in results.\u00a0 The real reason for the success was improved defense, but how could that in any way be attributed to a switch in managers?\u00a0 Indeed, a large part of Showalters’ success could probably be attributed to mere aberration and pure luck.\u00a0 For O’s fans to read too much into it and build grandiose hopes for this season would be a grave error leading to ultimate disappointment.<\/p>\n

The Orioles do have a very strong collection of young pitching talent that could eventually help propel them to relevance.\u00a0 Staff ace Jeremy Guthrie posted a 4.57 ERA, but ended up with just an 11-14 record because he didn’t get the run production from the offense.\u00a0 They also have a\u00a0 great prospect in Zach Britton, who probably will be called up at some point this season and will further strengthen the pitching staff.<\/p>\n

The Orioles made it known at the end of last season that they would deal any of their strong veterans for young talent and they will be wise to continue that trend since this season offers little hope for the O’s, even if they did finish last season with an inexplicably strong bang.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST DIVISION PREVIEW With the baseball season beginning, it’s time to take a look at the teams in the AL East and weigh their chances to contend both for the MLB crown and for a division title.\u00a0 Bodog’s Baseball Futures offer the betting lines used in this article. Tampa Bay Rays Odds to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40250,"featured_media":4792,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1444],"tags":[172,69,149,150,223],"class_list":["post-14488","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-headlines","tag-baltimore-orioles","tag-boston-red-sox","tag-new-york-yankees","tag-tampa-bay-rays","tag-toronto-blue-jays"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14488","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/40250"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14488"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14488\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14490,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14488\/revisions\/14490"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4792"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14488"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14488"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madduxsports.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14488"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}