UFC Live Versus 6 kicks off from the nation’s capitol at 5:30 Saturday night, and the fight card offers an array of interesting fights. The main card should prove particularly entertaining and offers a lot of value to bettors, particuarly the underdog Sass vs. The Menace Johnson. All betting odds are taken from Bodog.
Verizon Center, Washington DC
Saturday, September 30, 2001 @ 5:30 PM EST
—-Michael “The Menace” Johnson vs. Paul “Sassangle” Sass
Johnson -180, Sass +150
There are really two ways of looking at Paul “Sassangle” Sass. One is that he is undefeated and an excellent wrestler. The other is that he is inexperienced, has faced all bad to mediocre opponents, and has no stand up game at all. Sass is a bit one dimensional and his stand up game is really just an effort to angle to get his opponent on the floor. So far, that hasn’t failed him.
Will that work against “The Menace?”
Johnson brings a few things to the table that Sass does not. He’s a superior athlete and is very powerful. He is both good standing and on the mat, and against Sass he might be best off utilizing his boxing game as much as possible. Really, all the thingws Johnson is are the things that Sass is not. Johnson will use his superior striking game and work to keep the fight off the mat, though there is a strong chance that such would not even matter.
So, is there any reason to expect Sass to win this?
Possibly. While he has been utilzing the same tricks throughout his entire career, it is difficult to say it isn’t working. If Sass can round out his game and stick with what he is good at, he could be in line to improve his record to 12-0. What’s more, is that the future opponents of the winner of this match appear to be preparing for the underdog Sass. Sass has the makings of a contender and at +150, he offers nice value for an upset. Bettors will be wise to back Sass with excellent odds and some skills that
should enable to win this won by submission.
—-Yves “Thugjitsu Master” Edwards vs. Rafaello “Tractor” Oliveira
Yves -165, Oliveira +135
Yves and Oliveira are both coming off tough losses. Yves Edwards lost to Sam Stout, on a knockout hook punch, and Oliveria lost in submission to Gleison Tibau.
Edwards is a grizzled vet, and gave himself the fancy thug nickname. He has 15 victories by knockout and 16 by submission, showing his versatility that has made him a top flight fighter for so long.
Oliveria meanwhile, also specializes in jiu-jitsu and has a decent grappling game, not to mention strong strikes. He is only 1-3 in UFC, so a loss here will likely knock him out of the ranks.
Edwards’ superior skill set should serve him well in tonight’s fight, but he will have to be careful of Oliveira’s takedown moves. If he can avoid that, he should win this one pretty easily and at -165, he does offer decent value, so bettors will be wise to back Edwards in this one.
—-Mike “The Hulk” Easton vs. Byron Bloodworth
Easton -340, Bloodworth +260
Mike Easton is a heavy favorite in this one, and boasts a 10-1 record, but he has faced a lot of weak opponents. His best win was probably in his last fight, which he split a decision with Chase Beebe. The fact remains, however, that Beebe got robbed according to most, and it should have represented Easton’s second loss.
The win should bode well for Easton, theoretically, but most MMA junkies are able to see through his thinly veiled lack of success. He’s about as bad of a fighter as one could possibly be at 10-1. He was scheduled to face Houghland, but will be facing Bloodworth as a replacement. Bloodworth is 6-1 but will be fighting on short notice. He will be fresh against a rusty opponent in Easton, who hasn’t fought in about two years.
Will these negative factors contribute to an upset? Likely not. Expect Bloodworth to come out a little shell shocked and underprepared against a decent fighter in Easton. Bloodworth really shouldn’t even be in the UFC, but he was willing to accept the fight on short notice, so he was able to sneak into this event. This fight is meant more to fill out the fight card than offer a really competitive and interesting match and Easton shouldn’t have much trouble disposing of an opponent as inexperienced and flat-out mediocre as Bloodworth.
—–Walek “The Gazelle” Watson vs. Joseph Sandoval
Sandoval -130, Watson EVEN
This fight, while not featuring premier fighters, promises to be a good one, as indicated by the nearly EVEN odds. Neither fighter brings a very impressive track record to the table, though Sandoval is 6-0 and will be making his UFC debut. He has yet to beat any true quality opponents and only one of the six can even be considered a decent fighter (Douglas Frey, who he beat by TKO).
Sandoval probably isn’t really properly prepared for this. He made his MMA debut in April of 2010, but he is not experienced enough, nor good enough, to be making his debut already. The bantamweight division isn’t the most competitive, though, so he is being pressed into action.
Watson is not undefeated like Sandoval at 8-2, but has beat better opponents. Victories against Gabriel Godinez, Ismael Leon, and Joe Gustina speak to his ability to handle what can at least be perceived as above-average competition. The win over Leon may be the most impressive, but he did lose to Cody Gibson, who is probably a better fighter than both Watson and Sandoval, yet he is not in the UFC. Seven of Watson’s eight victories have come by submission.
Really, this fight doesn’t feature a contender, though, and it is more, again, to fill out the fight card. Neither Watson nor Sandoval is even considered in the top 25 fighters in their weight class. Watson at least has experience though. Watson stands a full 5 inches taller than Sandoval and will be able to use his length to force submission. In this nearly even odds fight, bettors will be wise to back Watson, as his fight record at least reflects that of a true UFC fighter.
—-Josh “The Dentist” Neer vs. Keith “The Polish Connection” Wisniewski
Neer -270, Wis. +210
This match pits two very experienced fighters with similar lengthy records. Neer sports a 31-10-1 record, while Wisniewski is a slightly less impresilve 28-12-1. But there are factors that separate Neer and make him the heavy favorite that he is:
a) Neer has been more consistent
b) Neer doesn’t have any really bad losses
c) Neer has a number of quality wins (Forrest Petz, Melvin Guillard, Joe Stevenson, Mac Danzig, and Din Thomas)
d) Neer has taken care of business against inferior opponents
Wisniewski has lost to some sub-par fighters, though, and lost to a 16-23-3 Renken and suffered a split decision to the 2-5 Oganov. These losses are unparalled by Neer, giving him a decisive edge in this fight, as reflected by the odds. Neer has also fought 10 UFC fights, though he has won only 4 of them. He did, though, beat excellent fighters in the aforementioned Joe Stevenson and Melvin Guillard. Wieniewski has only one fight, conversely, and it was a loss to Nick Thompson.
Neer is in his 9th year of pro MMA fighting, while Wisniewski has 14 years under his belt. Wisniewski is thus past his prime, decisively, while Neer has a little left in the tank. While Wisniewski has a six fight win streak, it has been less than impressive as all wins came against sub-par fighters.
There’s really no reason to expect an upset in this one. Wisniewski’s loss to Erik Oganov doesn’t bode well and Neer should have no problem disposing of him.
—-Shane Roller vs. TJ Grant
Roller -200, Grant +160
Roller has done some impressive things, not the least of which was defeating favorite Thiago Tavares, and he has also won 7 of his 10 fights against strong competition (victories over Todd Moore, Mike Budnik, Danny Castillo, Jamie Varner, Marcus Hicks, Anthony Njokuani, and Thiago Tavare; losses to Ben Henderson, Melvin Guillard, and Anthony Pettis). All these things point to a Roller victory, as the odds suggest.
What of Grant? He has a number of big wins, over Paulino, Burns, Petz, and Reiner; yet he has failed against better competition — namely Dong Hyun Kim, Johnny Hendricks, Ricardo Almeida. This match is not going to put him through the same hell, as Roller is not quite the fighter those three are. Grant is a better striker, while Roller is a better grappler. Grant was forced to the mat almost at will by Hendricks and Almeida took him down pretty easily, too. Opponents are wise to do so, as Grant is signifcantly weaker on the mat than he is standing.
Roller will take Grant down to the mat as much as possible and as quickly as possible. It is likely that Roller wins this one via submission and bettors will be wise to back the favorite in this one.
—-Anthony “Rumble” Johnson vs. Charlie “The Spaniard” Brenneman
Johnson -185, Bren. +155
Both Johnson and Brenneman have been fighting well recently. Johnson scored an impressive victory over Dan Hardy. It wasn’t the most exciting of fights, but it showed Johnson’s excellent mat-game and it was an important victory for Johnson’s chances of being a contender. Johnson does pose problems for himself that could be easily avoided by staying in better shape between fights. His ordinary body weight is well over 200, but he fights in a 170 pound weight class. The result is that he feels out of his own skin sometimes, failing to feel at home in his own body due to his ever fluctuating weight.
Brenneman is seeking to win an impressive one that will propel him further up the welterweight rankings. He won a decision victory over Rick Story, fighting as a replacement on short notice. Such victories always impress us more than when fighters prepare with a specific fighter in mind, catering their workouts to exploit the given fighter’s weakness. Brenneman will need to turn this into a wrestling match and try to win by decision. Johnson will look to knock him out before it ever takes to the mat, though. The favored Johnson should pull off a victory, though the odds don’t offer a lot of value with respect to how evenly matched this fight is, particuarly if it is a wrestling match.
—-Pat “HD” Barry vs. Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve
Barry -185, Struve +155
This heavyweight fight should be wildly entertaining, pitting two fighters who have an entire foot between them height-wise, with Struve standing a ridiculous 6’11” while Barry is a notch under 6 feet tall.
Barry’s low center of gravity (compared to Struve) and strong striking ability should should help, but Struve’s length could pose a lot of problems if it comes to grappling. Barry lost in KO to Cheick Kongo, a loss that sent shockwaves through his fighting organization. He’ll try to get back on track against a fighter whose stature is far more impressive than his credentials.
Both fighters would probably prefer to keep this fight standing. Barry is great with kickboxing, but will put himself at high risk to take downs against a fighter like Struve. Barry’s aggressive nature should help a lot though, and his leg kicks and strong strikes will knock Struve off balance a lot and leave him vulnerable to take downs.
While Barry is a decent favorite in this fight, Struve does offer a lot of value betting-wise. Again, this fight is evenly matched, but Struve at +155 is a great value bet for bettors seeking action in this fight.
—-Matt “Handsome” Wiman vs. Mac Danzig
Wiman -205, Danzig +165
These two are coming together for a rematch. Last time they met, Wiman won by submission, thus giving a short reason for why he is favored in this one. The counteractive argument is that Danzig didn’t tap and may have been able to come back in that one, so we’re not looking at what could be considered a true decisive victory.
Wiman lost his last match against Dennis Siver at UFC 132. Prior to that fight, he had won 3 straight and he was propelling himself quickly up the ranks in the lightweight division.
Danzig hasn’t ran as hot lately. He has split his matches, though he is coming off a big win against Joe Stevenson, and winning this match would be a big step forward for the underdog Danzig. Wiman will look to get Danzig on the mat as much as possible, but if Danzig can keep the match standing, his superior striking abilities may make the difference.
This fight doesn’t really offer a lot of value, though Wiman should emerge victorious. As underdogs go, Danzig is a decent value bet, but this fight is one that most bettors will be wise to avoid bothering with.
—-Dominick “The Dominator” Cruz vs. Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson
Cruz -525, Johnson +325
In the most ridiculous mis match of the night, Dominick Cruz will defend his bantamweight belt. Cruz beat Urijah Faber in his UFC debut and is looking to solidify himself as the best fighter in the weight class. He is quick and strikes hard, a combination that bodes well for any standing fight. Cruz uses a lot of angular punches and changes levels a lot, which keeps opponents off guard, if not confused.
The heavy underdog Johnson just beat Miguel Torres and is hoping to get this one on the mat, if he is to have any chance at all. Both fighters, though, are very quick, and taking down Cruz is not easy by any means. Johnson is also really fighting out of what should be his true weight class, as he is more of a flyweight.
There really is no reason to expect this fight to be an upset. Cruz is champ for a reason and is always in top shape. The line is ridiculously extreme, and offers little value from a betting standpoint. While Cruz is a pretty certain bet to win, at -525, you’re not getting much value for it, and upsets are always a possiblity, particularly in the bantamweight division, as there are many underrated fighters seeking a chance to exploit an opportunity like this one.
With a complete breakdown of the UFC card for Saturday night, you should feel pretty comfortable making a few wagers. We highly suggest Bodog for that, given their 10% bonuses on deposit and hassle-free payments, with no surcharge at all.