UFC Fight Night 25 Free Betting Picks: Part Two

MacDonald Makes a good Value bet against Belcher
Having looked at the first six fights on the card of Fight Night 25, now let’s take a look at the latter half of the matches to be fought. Betting odds are taken from Bodog.

Evan Dunham vs. Shamar Bailey

Dunham -500, Bailey +350

Evan Dunham started out his career with 11 consecutive victories. He dropped his 12th career match to Sean Sherk, an excellent fighter. It ended in a controversial split decision. Dunham should have been awarded the decision in that event.

Be that as it may, Dunham went on to lose a first round TKO to Melvin Guillard and the notion that he may be one of the top fighters in the UFC vanished with that blow. That’s not to say he isn’t a good fighter; he is; but the UFC lightweight division is very tough and only the most skilled fighters manage to stick. Dunham is an above average fighter and well versed in a lot of different attacks, kind of a jack of all trades types. It is specialization that often makes the difference in this weight class though, and he lacks that.

The fact that he is facing Shamar Bailey is a good thing for his career. After dropping two straight UFC fights, a loss here would likely spell the end of his UFC career. But that won’t happen. Dunham is a superior filghter and while it should be a decent fight, there is little doubt that Dunham will prevail.

Bailey made his debut against Ryan McGillivray and while his striking is good his ground game is weak. He is pretty much just a glorified wrestler, so if he can’t get it to the mat he stands no chance. Dunham knows that and will be cautious about even opening that door. And even if Bailey can get him to the mat, it only mildly increases his chances; he’ll still likely lose.

Vagner Rocha vs. Cody “AK Kid” McKenzie

Rocha -160, McKenzie +130

There are a lot of things about Cody McKenzie that would lead one to believe he is a top flight fighter. He won his first twelve career fights, but the deceiving thing is he is such a one trick pony that every victory wa at the hands of a guillotine choke. It’s one hell of an effective move, but it just can’t work against EVERY fighter. Eventually, people expose one trick ponies for what they really are and if Rocha stays alert to the guillotine choke move he stand a great chance at winning as he is favored to do.

Rocha is 6-2 and lost his UFC debut to Donald Cerrone at UFC 131. Cerrone is a much better fighter than Rocha, and it isn’t really worth analyzing the differences between McKenzie and Cerrone. Cerrone is just a much better fighter.

Can McKenzie beat Rocha by guillotine choke? It’s not that likely. He’s going to be anticipating the move and while it may work against fighters like Aaron Wilkinson and Marc Stevens, it won’t work against Rocha who has an adequate background in grappling.

Neither fighter is a good striker, though McKenzie does land some decent blows. Moreover, neither of these fighters are ever going to be legit contenders. Rocha has a better skill set…but it’s still nothing to be amazed by. This fight is really not one bettors should focus on due to the fact that it is so evenly matched, but McKenzie should be able to pull the small upset, if he can manage to avoid any heavy blows from Rocha.

Erik “New Breed” Koch vs. Jonathan Brookins

Koch -200, Brookins +160

This 145 pound bout will feature Jonahthan Brookins, who just moved down from the 155 pound weight class, against New Breed Koch, who is more experienced and has fought far better opponents. Brookins is going to have to step up his game to get on Koch’s level.

That isn’t to say, however, that Brookins can’t fight. He’s better suited to the 145 pound weight class and he fights out of Gracie Barra Orlando. He’s a great grappler and has a number of excellent submission moves. He’s not the greatest with the stand up game but if he can get Koch to the ground, he stands a good chance in this one, though Koch’s experience will make it difficult for Brookins to pull the kinds of tricks he has in the past against less experienced opponents.

Koch is a well rounded fighter and is great on the ground, but also has developed a name for himself as a striker, both kicks and punches. He has lost only once in his thirteen career fights and Koch should press his advantage at the stand up game and not worry about trying to end the fight via submission. He can knock Brookins out much easier and should win this fight via knockout in either the first or second round.

Court “The Crusher” McGee vs. Dongi “The Ox” Yang

McGee -165, Yang +135

Court McGee hasn’t fought since October of 2010 when he lost in submission to Ryan Jenson. He was supposed to fight in June but injuries to his knee and hands held him out of that fight. He’s wise to try to out wrestle Yang, and he should be able to, but if he gets into a boxing match with the Korean Yang, he could be in for trouble. Yang beat Rob Kimmons in March and he trains with Chan Sung Jung out of Korean Top team. He’s going to be a fighter to be wreckoned with for a long time. His strong strikes have enabled 9 of his 10 wins to come by TKO. The line on this one is really close and it is justifiably so. Unless guided by a strong instinct, this match doesn’t offer much value betting-wise.

Alan “The Talent” Belcher vs. Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald

Belcher -280, MacDonald +220

“The Talent” versus “The Athlete” Both of these MMA vets should be ready to square off in this fight, given the fact that between them they have 61 career fights.

Belcher has been rehabbing for the last year and should come into the fight fresh, or rusty, depending on your outlook. His striking game is solid and half of his 16 wins have come by knockout. He’s not bad on the ground either, though, should the match end up there. A lot of people are expecting this to be one of the most exciting fights of the night.

MacDonald is great with submission moves so it’s probable that Belcher keeps the fight standing as long as possible. MacDonald has 5″ reach on Belche, too, though, and that will help a lot on the ground; again, if it gets there. The odds at -280 are not that favorable given the chance MacDonald has at winning and a value bet seems prudent here.

Jake Shields vs. Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger

Shields -200, Ellenberger +160

Shields is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 129. Before losing that match, he had won 15 straight fights over five years. His career record is 26-5.

Ellenberger has won four straight himself since losing his debut to Carlos Condit. He hasn’t been fighting the best fighters, but has improved his record to 25-5. Tonight’s fight will offer a look at how Ellenberger does against better talent. While Shields is favored by a fair bit, Ellenberger offers a lot of value at +160.

Shields has superior grappling skills and is tough and can endure longer. As the fight wears on, he should be able to get a lot of good blows in on Ellenberger and win this one by decision.

Now that you have taken a look at the fight card from UFC Fight Night 25, you should have a good idea of some of the better matches to bet on in this one. Take that knowledge and back it up at Bodog, where they offer a 10% bonus on deposits and easy hassle-free payouts.

Share This Post

The information contained at this site is for entertainment purposes only. Any use of this information in violation of any state, federal, or local laws is prohibited.
Copyright © MadduxSports.com - Premier Sports Picks and Sports Odds Web site