UFC Fight Night 25 Free Betting Picks: Part One

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Jorge Lopez is a huge favorite but the odds don't offer very good value at -450
UFC Fight Night 25 will be fought in New Orleans’ Ernest N. Morial Convention Center. The night’s main card will air on Spike TV. ¬†There are a number of good fights and great value bets to be made in this fight card. ¬†Betting odds are taken from Bodog.

Jorge Lopez vs. Justin Edwards

Lopez -450, Edwards +300

Welterweight newcomer Jorge Lopez boasts an 11-1 MMA record, but will be making his UFC debut after signing a multi-fight deal with the UFC. He’ll start his UFC career against the 6-1 Justin Edwards, who lost his UFC debut.

Lopez trains out of Las Vegas and he has won his last ten fights since making his debut four years ago. He has defeated Strikeforce vets Wayne Phillips and Waachiim Spiritwolf, as well as WEC veteran Dave Terrel. Lopez has been fighting against great competition (except for Chidi Njokukani) and has beat Waachiim Spiritwolf. Lopez, despite his dominance, has yet to assert himself as a solid contender, so this fight is of great importance towards proving himself as a legitimate force to be wreckoned with in UFC.

Edwards fights out of Ohio and joined the UFC after going 6-0. His debut loss was to Clay Harvison back in June. Edwards fights by moving quickly and throwing a lot of power punches. He also goes for a lot of wild and spontaneous take downs while going for submissions. It works against a lot of fighters but probably will not work against someone with Lopez’ strength and skill.

Both fighters are roughly the same size, standing 5’10” with a 178 cm reach. Lopez really should dominate this start from fight to finish. On Tapology.com, 87% of those polled have chosen the heavy favorite Lopez, with over half of those predicting that the fight ends via Knockout or Technical Knockout. Edwards will come out throwing hard early, but if Lopez can scrape by until later in the fight and look for some signs of weakness, he could catch Edwards off guard for a heavy fight-ending blow.

Robert Peralta vs. Mike Lullo

Peralta -165, Lullo +135

Robert Peralta earned his way into the top 25 in the featherweight division by beating top 25 featherweight Hiroyuki Takaya in a split decision. The featherweight division’s competition is weak enough that such a victory qualified Peralta for a spot in this fight card against Lullo. It will be his UFC Debut, but he doesn’t boast the resume of a top MMA fighter. His 14-3 record is deceiving because five of those wins were against opponents making their debuts. He lost to the 6-4 Yahir Reyes, the 6-6 Fred Leavy, and 3-1 Landon Piercy.

Lullo had to take on a top prospect in Edson Barboza at UFC 123, and he was able to get Barboza on the ground but he couldn’t force the submission and Barboza eventually go a good hold on Lullo and wore him down in submission. Lullo has not fought in the last 10 months.

Robert Peralta probably isn’t ever going to be a top fighter, but he is better than Lullo, and that isn’t really saying much. Lullo has had little success agaisnt top fighters and hasn’t shown much of an ability to end fights.

T.J. Waldburger vs. Mike Stumpf

Waldburger -225, Stumpf +175

Waldburger had a pretty rough time against Johny Hendricks to say the least, as he was knocked out 95 seconds into the fight. This time, he’ll face a fighter a lot more on his level, in Mike Stumpf. Who? Stumpf. He’s 11-2 but no one really knows much of anything about him. He wasn’t accepted into the fight until yesterday and is taking over for Daniel Roberts. He has fought only once in the last three years and it’s really tough to imagine this guy coming out of nowhere to beat a good fighter like Waldburger.

The fact he Stumpf fighting on short notice doesn’t help at all either. The combination of inactivity and unpreparedness won’t serve him well and while Stumpf may offer statistical revelevance, there aren’t a lot of things indicating he has any chance of winning this fight.

Seth “The Polish Pistola” Baczynski vs. Clay “Heavy Metal”:Harvison

Baczynski -155, Harvison +125

Seth Baczynski suffered an unfortunate defeat when he kicked Brad Tavares in the head, and when he faced Tavares again in the TUF 11 Finale he lost by unanimous decision and was released from his UFC contract. He will be a replacement for DaMarques Johnson in this match and at 13-6 he brings a lot of experience and skill as a fighter.

Clay Harvison won his pro UFC debut against Justin Edwards in June.

Harvison had a good showing at TUF 13 where he beat Mick Bowman and Ramsey Nijem before having a split decision against Edwards in their second meeting as pros. Harvison was said to be out of shape, but for as bad as his conditioning might have been, he was able to out-endure Edwards. Harvison received a 73.43 victory score in beating Edwards. Edwards had beaten six average opponents prior to that though, so the figure is somewhat deceiving.

Neither Baczynski or Harvison have shown themselves to be really great at any one aspect of UFC fighting. Neither of these guys will ever make a title run and Harvison, though a slight underdog, is more than likely to win this one by decision.

Ken Stone vs. Donny “Eagle Eye” Walker

Stone -130, Walker EVEN

This is one of the closest odds for any match in the card, but perhaps it shouldn’t be…

These bantamweights don’t have a lot of UFC experieince. Stone is 0-2 and lost at WEC 53 to Eddie Wineland by knockout in the first round and then he lost to Scott Jorgensen at TUF 13 by another first round knockout punch. So far, then, Stone has shown little more than an ability to lose fights…fast!

Despite that fact, Stone is a legit UFC fighter and has faced good filghters; Walker, meanwhile lacks a lot of real fight skills and even against a mediocre fighter like Jeff Hougland, he looked outmatched.

Whomever loses this fight will see their UFC career come to an end. Neither fighter has been successful thus far and while they experienced a lot of success before joining the UFC, they found the highest level of MMA fighting to be a bit too much.

Walker, despite having lost to Hougland, at least was able to fight for more than one round. Stone hasn’t even had the chance to show his skills so it’s tough to say he doesn’t have any. We’ll see if Walker can pull another quick knockout on Stone, which would pretty much devestate him as a fighter.

Matt Riddle vs. Lance Benoist

Riddle -200, Benoist +160

Matt Riddle will be fighting only his eight career match in his UFC and professional MMA career. Benoist has even less experience at 5-0. UFC fighters usually have more than just five fights under their belt when they make their debut, but Benoist must offer some reasons for being so advanced already.

What case can be made for that? Benoist has won every fight in th first round and four of the five wins were submission, with the other being a knockout kick to the head. As impressive as it is to have won all the fights so quickly, none of the fighters were all that good, and only two fo the five could even have a case made for being an above average fighter. He’s unproven against quality competition, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t stand a chance against it; we just have no measuring stick. If he can get past a fighter like Riddle, we’ll have a better idea of what he might be capable of.

Riddle is 5-2 in the UFC since appearing on the 7th season of the UFC Ultimate Fighter but he has always fought in the preliminary fights and will be again. He’s been fighting a lot of weak opponents and he lost to Nick Osipczak and Sean Pierson. Against Pierson, he tried to box a bit too much while failing to land many significant blows, causing him to lose in decision.

Riddle should manage to win this one, even though he has been fighting the weaker fighters of the UFC. Even the weakest UFC fighters, however, are stronger than the best of the rest, and until Benoist proves himself against stronger competition, it’s easy to go against him versus a fighter with legit experience like Riddle.

Now that you have taken a look at the fight card from UFC Fight Night 25, you should have a good idea of some of the better matches to bet on in this one. Take that knowledge and back it up at Bodog, where they offer a 10% bonus on deposits and easy hassle-free payouts.

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