UFC 166 Betting Preview Part I: The Main Card

Big South TournamentUFC 166 begins tonight at 5:30 PM ET on Facebook, but this preview will only focus on the first four fights of the main card. Velasquez vs. Dos Santos will be featured in part two of the coverage of this event. Let’s look at the pay per view fight card for UFC 166.

Odds courtesy of Bovada

John “The Magician” Dodson vs. Darrell “The Mongoose” Montague
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Line: DODSON -375; MONTAGUE +285

As favored as John “The Magician” Dodson is, he does have a reputation as someone who is slightly overrated. He has great KO power as a fighter but is not all that skilled at either striking or wrestling, which could render this fight much closer. Dodson still should be able to take this fight though because Montague is debuting and is just about to find out how difficult life can be in UCF caliber competition.

Shawn “The Savage” Jordan vs. Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga
Time: 10 PM ET
Line: JORDAN -185; GONZAGA +150

Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga is an underdog in this fight, and it is probably mostly because of his flaws as a striker. He doesn’t block punches well and he thinks he is a better striker than he actually y is, probably due to his knock out of Mirko Cro Cop some six years ago. He’s also not a very good kick boxer and he’s been known to have a bit of a glass chin. His best strength is likely his grappling game and he has a few good submission moves.

But the most important deducation might just be that he is a better and more skilled fighter than Shawn Jordan. Gonzaga has landed 3.37 takedowns per 15 minutes. It stands to reason this fight is an upset, as Gonzaga will take it by submission.

Daniel Cormier vs. Roy “Big Country” Nelson
Time: 10:30 PM ET
Line: CORMIER -500; NELSON +300

Roy “Big Country” Nelson is a big underdog in this fight and was unanimously picked to win the fight by Bleacher Report’s MMA panel. Daniel Cormier is just a very strong fighter as a former Olympic wrestler, and he should be able to control the fight as he sees fit. He can also out-strike Nelson, which not every fighter can say. Cormier could win by knockout, but its most likely he just wears Nelson down and wins this by decision.

Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez vs Diego “The Dream” Sanchez
Time: 11 PM ET
Line: MELENDEZ -600; SANCHEZ +400

Diego Sanchez is a heavy underdog in this, but he may be one of the best value bets if you’re seeking to place a bet an on underdog. Sanchez has to get his takedowns in this to have a chance, and he’s against the right fighter to do it against because Gilbert Melendez was taken down seven times in a loss to Mitsuhiro Ishida and six times in a loss to Josh Thomson. That leaves the window open for Sanchez to get a key take down and pull this upset. If Melendez can keep the fight standing, he will win by decision.

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