Here’s a look at the main card fights for Saturday night’s UFC 150 event.
Max Holloway (5/6) vs. Justin Lawrence (10/11)
Both these fighters are good prospects, but without much of a track record, evaluating their chances against one another is difficult to say the least. Holloway has a lot of potential and all his fights have come against very experienced opponents, which should work in his favor given his relative success so far. I’m inclined to go with Holloway here because he’s a better striker and is also a better conditioned fighter. It’s the easiest indicator of strength to notice such things, but I can’t say my feelings are strong enough here to lay a wager. I’m leaving it alone.
Yushin Okami (1/6) vs. Buddy Roberts (4/1)
Okami to many is a rock solid fighter, but a few true experts see glaring weaknesses that cause them to label him as one of the more overrated fighters. MMA oddsmakers certainly do not share that opinion. Still, Buddy Roberts is way over matched here and is also taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for Rousimar Palhares. He’s going to have to find a way to win this on strikes and also prevent this from becoming a wrestling match, not to mention avoiding the variety of submission moves Okami has in his arsenal. It’s a long shot.
Jake Shields (1/2) vs. Ed Herman (8/5)
Herman has come back nicely from an injury and now has a three fight win streak, but those wins have come over pretty mediocre fighters (Tim Credeur, Kyle Noke, Cliffor Starks). Shields is on his way down to say the least, but his only recent losses came to Georges St-Pierre and Jake Ellenberger. Sheilds should win this, as he is favored to, but be wary of Herman’s wrestling talents because if this gets to the ground, it is Herman’s to lose. I’m leaving this fight alone because of that prospect…it’s just not a safe bet either way.
Donald Cerrone (20/63) vs. Melvin Guilard (49/20)
Guilard fought a tight match against Jeremy Stephens at UFC 119. It was a match decided by striking ability, and when Cerrone faced off against Stephens, he was a much better overall fighter from the opening of the fight until its conclusion. Cerrone has a more fundamental striking game and is also much better with submissions. Guilard’s best chance to pull this off will be by TKO, which is what makes him such an underdog to MMA oddsmakers. Barring a surprise knockout though, Cerrone either wins this by submission or by decision. I don’t really see it any other way.