Let’s take a look at the final three fights of the night.
Roy “Big Country” Nelson (-225) vs. Dave Herman (+175)
Nelson has a lot of experience against a lot of good fighters and has improved his conditioning a lot. He should be able to begin to make his ascent to the highest tier of fighters, and it will begin against Herman. He doesn’t look like a fighter, but looks are deceiving, and they call him “Big Country” for a reason…he’s big. He takes hits very well, and can’t be shaken. He’s not a ridiculously heavy favorite, but he probably should be. Nelson wins this by TKO most likely, and either in round 2 or 3, I would bet.
Cain Velasquez (-400) vs. Antonio “Pezao” Silva (+300)
Velasquez has consistently been one of the best conditioned fighters. Silva has had trouble with good strikers in the past and isn’t the greatest at blocking blows. Cain has learned from his mistakes and should have no problems dispatching Silva, as MMA oddsmakers have made clear by the very uneven odds. Velasquez was a former UFC heavyweight champion, and he hasn’t lost anything, so I really don’t see him having much of a problem and a second round knockout is very likely.
Junior “Cigano” Dos Santos (-500) vs. Frank Mir (+350)
Dos Santos has quick hands and feet, and moves around extremely well, and that is going to give Frank Mir, a much slower fighter, a lot of problems, hence the very uneven odds. Dos Santos will be a top division fighter for a good while, and other than a shaky ground game, he’s rock solid, due to his impressive footwork. Dos Santos hits hard, and accurately, which will give Mir some ersious problems. I don’t expect this to be much of a contest, and Dos Santos should score a second or third round knockout, if not a first.