Sunday MLB Betting Preview – Padres at Marlins

The Marlins hope to avoid a three-game sweep with a favorable home umpire behind the dish.

San Diego Padres at Florida Marlins

San Diego is enjoying its current six-game road trip, posting a 4-1 record after defeating the Florida Marlins 2-1 in last night’s game.  The Padres boast a 21-14 record on the road this season (+1,300), leading a group of only three NL teams with winning records away from home.  The pitching staff has been tremendous all season, posting its 10th shutout of the year in the series opener, while leading the majors in strikeouts and strikeout/walk ratio (2.57).  First baseman Adrian Gonzalez has been instrumental in leading the Friars this month, hitting .400 with seven home runs and 20 RBI this month.  At 13-10, San Diego needs just one win over its last four games to clinch a fifth straight winning month.

Padres SP Mat Latos is 8-4 with a 2.93 ERA in 14 starts this season (+580) and comes in with a 7-1 record and 1.81 ERA with a MLB-low .145 opponents batting average since May 7.  “He senses the importance of each pitch,” manager Bud Black said.  “That’s a great quality to understand that.”  The South Florida native will be playing in front of family and friends this afternoon, but brings a 0-2 mark and 16.50 ERA in his two outings in Miami.  The Marlins are batting .379 against him, as the right-hander lasted only 2.2 innings (7ER) in his April 26th start at Sun Life Stadium.  Since losing in Miami, Latos is 5-1 with a 1.32 ERA in his past six starts away from home.  Overall, he stands at 5-2 with a 3.08 ERA in eight road starts (+590).

Florida hasn’t enjoyed a home field advantage this season, coming in with a 19-21 mark and 4-7 at Sun Life Stadium this month.  At home, the starting rotation has gone 15-13 with a 3.15 ERA in 40 games.  In contrast, the rotation owns a 15-12 mark and 4.63 ERA in 34 road starts.  The Marlins are currently 20-29 against right-handed starters this season (-1,010) and 11-10 in day games (+150).  The nine games in this season series are the most since 2000, when the Marlins went 2-7 against the Padres.  Florida enjoys playing on Sunday’s, posting an 8-3 mark in 2010 (+640) and 35-30 the last three years (+880).

Marlins SP Anibal Sanchez is 7-4 with a 3.30 ERA in 14 starts this year (+260), allowing just four home runs in 87.1 innings of work.  He is coming off a 10-4 win in Baltimore on Tuesday, allowing three runs and seven hits in 6.1 frames.  “After he gave up three runs in the second inning, he gave us some nice innings,” former Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez said.  The right-hander has allowed more than three runs in only two of his last 12 starts, tallying nine quality starts in that time while going 7-3 with a 2.75 ERA.  Sanchez has always been solid at home in his career and this season is no different, bringing in a 3-2 record and 2.64 ERA in seven starts (+60).  In 31 career games (30 starts) at Sun Life Stadium, he has tallied a 14-8 mark and 3.13 ERA.

Bettors need to dig a little deeper in this matchup to find a winning side, which may come from looking at umpire Wally Bell.  The home team is an incredible 59-28 in Bell’s last 87 games behind home plate, which should raise a red flag when combining this mark with Latos’ struggles in Miami.

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  1. You really think the umpire will make a difference in the outcome of the game? If so Wally needs to go bye-bye.

  2. The umpire has a huge role in some games – especially when the matchup is considered even by a handicapper

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