2012 PGA BMW Championship
FedEx Cup Playoffs Leg Three
Thursday, September 6-Sunday, September 9, 2012, TV: Golf, NBC
Crooked Stick Golf Club – Carmel, Indiana
7,516 yards – Par 72
Defending Champion: Justin Rose
All Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

With two legs of the 2012 FedEx Cup playoffs down, only the top 70 are still alive to advance to the Tour Championship. The top 30 golfers will advance. Nick Watney won the Barclay’s a couple of weeks ago and is second to Deutsche Bank champion Rory McIlroy. Tiger Woods is in third place.

The third leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs is the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick in Carmel, Indiana. The Pete Dye designed course opened in 1967. It famously hosted the 1991 PGA Championship when a then unknown John Daly came out of nowhere to win the event. Back then the course played at 7,205 yards, at the time the longest course ever to hold a major. Today, 7,205 yards is considered average, and Crooked Stick measures at just over 7,500 yards and is a par 72. What makes Crooked Stick so difficult is the greens only measure 4,500 square feet total. That is roughly equivalent to TPC Sawgrass, but below average compared to the rest of the tracks on tour.

Let’s take a look at some of the favorites and contenders for the BMW Championship with odds to win courtesy of Bookmaker. I will also discuss some head-to-head match-ups I like.

Rory McIlroy (6/1)

McIlroy is the world’s number one golfer and #1 in the FedEx Cup standings by 1,331 points over Watney. He was trailing Louis Oosthuizen heading into Monday’s final round of the Deutsche Bank Championship, but McIlroy ended up winning by a stroke. It was his third win on the PGA tour this year, including the PGA Championship last month. He leads the PGA tour in adjusted scoring. It’s hard to pick against him as hot as he is. McIlroy is -120 to beat Tiger Woods.

Tiger Woods (7/1)

Woods is third in the FedEx Cup standings 1,382 behind McIlroy. Woods came in a solo third in Boston last week at the Deutsche Bank, after shooting a bogey free final round 66. He was 2 strokes behind McIlroy and one behind Oosthuizen. He only had 4 bogies all week. He is first in total driving and second in scoring average on the PGA Tour. As has been the case in the last several years with Tiger, he has been inconsistent at putting. Sometimes he looks great like on Monday, and sometimes he can’t sink a put to save his life. If the putts are dropping, he can win every week. I think he contends but I can’t pick him to win.   Woods is -110 to beat McIlroy.

Dustin Johnson (13/1)

Johnson has finished in the top 5 at both FedEx Cup events. He has 5 top 5’s in 17 starts, and just this week was chosen as a Captain’s pick for the Ryder Cup. Johnson is ninth in adjusted scoring and his long hitting style should play perfectly at Crooked Stick. He is -125 to beat Oosthuizen and I like that match-up for Johnson.

Louis Oosthuizen (16/1)

Like Johnson, Oosthuizen has top 5’s in both FedEx Cup events. He is fifth in points, 1,890 behind McIlroy. He shot a 63 in the third round at the TPC Boston last week.  It included 7 straight birdies. He is seventh in greens in regulation and adjusted scoring. He is also putting very well. He could contend  if things go his way.

Phil Mickelson (16/1)

Mickelson is 9th in points, 2,629 behind McIlroy. Last week Mickelson tied for 4th with Dustin Johnson at the Deutsche Bank. He is a long hitter and should do well at Crooked Stick. Last week, was his first top 10 on tour since the Byron Nelson in May. He is using the claw grip to putt, and has improved recently. He mad 20 birdies in 72 holes at TPC Boston. He is +115 to beat Adam Scott.

Adam Scott (18/1)

Scott is 25th in points 3,351 behind McIlroy. He needs a good finish at the BMW to make sure he qualifies for the Tour Championship. Scott finished 62nd at the Barclay’s and tied for seventh at the Deutsche Bank. It was his fourth top 10 of the season, including a runner up at the British Open, where he bogeyed the last 4 holes to give the Open to Ernie Els. He could grab another top 10 this week at Crooked Stick.

Sergio Garcia (20/1)

Garcia took last week off, after he won the WGC Bridgestone Invitational and tied for third at the Barclay’s. He is #15 in points, 2,989 behind McIlroy.He should do well at Crooked Stick because he is one of the longest hitters on tour. He is -130 to beat Brant Snedeker, and I like Garcia in that match-up.

Brandt Snedker (20/1)

Snedeker is 4th in points 1,605 behind McIlroy. Snedeker finished 2nd at the Barclay’s and 6th at TPC Boston, and was chosen as a Captain’s pick for the Ryder Cup. He leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained putting. He could be a semi-dark horse to win.

Lee Westwood (20/1)

Westwood was fifth at Beth Page Black and 13th at Boston. Despite hitting only 11 greens in regulation in the last round last week, he still made 7 birdies. He leads the PGA tour in greens in regulation. Westwood has the talent to win every week, no matter where he is playing. Westwood is only 23rd in points, because he spends most of his time on the European Tour and doesn’t play enough PGA events to contend for the FedEx Cup. He is -115 to beat Steve Stricker.

Jason Dufner (20/1)

Dufner is 7th in points 2,426 behind McIlroy. He skipped the Barclay’s and had a top 20 at the Deutsche Bank. He was 9 under after 36 holes but 3 double bogeys in the final two rounds doomed his chances of winning. He has two wins this season, and could certainly contend this week at Crooked Stick. Dufner is -115 to beat Luke Donald.

Luke Donald (22/1)

Donald is 17th in points. He came in tied for 23rd at the Deutsche Bank last week. He hit only 20 greens in regulation  in the final two rounds at Boston, yet had only 3 bogeys or worse. Donald is ranked in the top 5 in teh world, and has the talent to win anytime.

Here is a complete list of the odds to win the BMW Championship and the match-ups as well. It should be a great week of golf.