PGA BMW Championship Betting Preview

2013 PGA BMW Championship
Thursday, September 12-Sunday, September 15, 2013, TV: Golf Channel, NBC
Conway Farms Golf Club – Lake Forest,  Illinois
Par 71 – 7,149 yards

Defending Champion: Rory McIlroy
All odds courtesy of Bookmaker

Justin Rose is our pick to win the 2013 BMW Championship.
Justin Rose is our pick to win the 2013 BMW Championship.

After taking a week off, the FedEx Cup playoffs return with this week’s BMW Championship at Conway Farms Gold Club jsut outside of Chicago. With his victory at the Deutsche Bank Championship two weeks ago Henrik Stenson overtook Tiger Woods by 14 points for the lead with two events left in the playoffs.  The top 70 in the standings will compete this week in the BMW with the top 30 advancing to next week’s Tour Championship.

The BMW Championship is one of the oldest events on the PGA Tour dating back to 1902 and was formerly known as the Western Open. Although last year’s event was held at Crooked Stick in Indiana, the event moves to Conway Farms this year. The course was built in 1991 and hasn’t hosted a PGA event until now. It has hosted several big amateur events. The par 71 course isn’t that long at 7,149 yards, but the small greens and narrow fairways make accuracy a must. The course should provide scoring opportunities as the main defense is wind. The wind this week is supposed to be moderate, with temps in the 70’s on Thursday, and the 60’s for the rest of the week. Thunderstorms are possible Sunday.

Let’s take a look at the contenders with their odds to win and some head-to-head match-ups with odds courtesy of bookmaker.

Tiger Woods (+685)

Tiger tied for second at the Barclays and tied for 65th at the Deutsche Bank. He trails Stenson by 14 points in the FedEx Standings.  Tiger has 5 wins and 3 other top 10’s including at the Masters and Open Championship. Tiger has won this event 4 times but not since 2009, and has never played this course in competition before. Tigers leads the PGA Tour in adjusted scoring and the all-around. Tiger is -150 to beat Adam Scott. I think Tiger bounces back and should at least be in contention this week.

Adam Scott (+1301)

Scott won the Barclays, but tied for 53rd at the Deutsche Bank. Before that he had 4 straight top 15 finishes. He is third in the FedEx standings 134 points behind Stenson. He won the Masters, and also had top 5’s at the British Open and PGA Championships. He is fourth in adjusted scoring on tour. Scott is +130 to beat Woods. I think Scott will at least be in contention.

Henrik Stenson (+1428)

Stenson won the Deutsche Bank last week. He has 5 top 3 finishes in his last 6 starts world wide, including at the British Open and PGA Championships. The only exception was at tie for 43rd at the Barclays. Stenson has 7 top ten’s this season. He leads the tour in greens in regulation and is in the top 5 in total driving and the all-around. Stenson is -127 to beat Phil Mickelson. I like Stenson in that match-up.

Phil Mickelson (+1628)

Mickelson tied for sixth at the Barclays and tied for 41st at the Deutsche Bank despite shooting an opening round 63. Mickelson is now sixth in the FedEx standings.  Mickelson has 2 wins, 2 runner-ups, and 2 thirds in 19 events. He won the Open Championship and came in second at the U.S. Open. Mickelson tied for second at Crooked Stick last year. He is second on tour in strokes gained putting and first in par breakers.

Steve Stricker (+1833)

Steve Stricker was the runner up at the Deutsche Bank after skipping the Barclays. Stricker made only 4 bogeys all week at TPC Boston. He is 8th in points with 3 runner ups and 3 other top 10’s in only 11 starts. Stricker won this event in 1996. Stricker is first in par four scoring and second in Greens hit, adjusted scoring and the all-around. Stricker is -130 to beat Matt Kuchar, and I like him in that match-up and he is also worth a play to win the tournament.

Justin Rose (+1915)

Rose has been under par in all 8 rounds of the playoffs so far. He tied for second at the Barclays and tied for 16th at the Deutsche Bank. Rose is 7th in the FedEx standings  with a win at the U.S. Open and 6 other top 10’s. He won this event in 2011 at Cog Hill. I like Rose at -135 to beat McIlroy and Rose is also my pick to win the tournament.

Rory McIlroy (+2077)

McIlroy is 41st in the Fed Ex Standings and needs a strong showing to even make the Tour Championship next week. He tied for 19th at the Barclays and tied for 47th at the Deutsche Bank. McIlroy has struggled all season, with no wins and only 5 top 10’s. He did get a top 10 at the PGA Championship his first in a major this year. McIlroy won this event last year at Crooked Stick. I don’t see him contending this week.

Matt Kuchar (+2450)

Kuchar Tied for 19th at the Barclays and tied for fourth at the Deutsche Bank. He is fourth in the FedEx Standings with 2 wins, 2 runner ups and 4 more top 10’s. He has made 25 straight cuts. Kuchar is +110 against Stricker.

Jason Dufner (+2894)

Dufner tied for 9th at the Deutsche Bank and tied for 37th at the Barclays. He is 13th in the FedEx Playoffs with 4 top tens and a win at the PGA Championship. Dufner is -124 to beat Jason Day.

Jordan Spieth (+3072)

The 20 year old Spieth has had an incredible rookie year. He has a win, 2 other runner ups, and 6 more top 10’s. He tied for 19th at the Barclays and tied for 4th at the Deutsche Bank.  Spieth is 10th in the FedEx Standings and was named a Captain’s pick for the President’s Cup. I like Spieth at +105 to beat Sergio Garcia, and he could even be a semi-dark horse to contend.

Jason Day (+3083)

Day is 12th in the FedEx Standings with 6 top 10’s, including at the Masters, US Open, and PGA Championship. He finished third at the Masters and tied for second at the US Open. He has made 23 straight cuts, and finished tied for 25th at the Barclays and tied for 13th at TPC Boston. I like Day to beat Dufner at +104.

Other contenders and their odds include Luke Donald (+3579), Keegan Bradley (+3613), Sergio Garcia (+3624), Charl Schwartzel (+4088), Hunter Mahan (+4288), Webb Simpson (+4358), Jim Furyk (+4360), Lee Westwood (+4597), Brandt Snedeker (+4649), Graham DeLaet (+4660), Zach Johnson (+4668), and the field is +325.

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