As always, there are all sorts of great storylines in today’s college football action. Here are my favorites:

Oklahoma (-3) vs. Texas – Both teams desperately need this win, but for very different reasons. Texas dropped out of the second spot in the polls last week, and their play hasn’t been particularly impressive. They need an impressive win over a good team in order to prove that they are a good team and that they belong in the BCS Championship game. Oklahoma has had a very rough year – two losses, the injury to Sam Bradford, and so on. This team is better than a 3-3 team, or at least they should be. They won’t be if they don’t win here, though. There is real desperation on both sides, and that leads to good drama. It also doesn’t hurt that these teams don’t exactly like each other.

Iowa (+2.5) at Wisconsin
– Iowa is still undefeated and poised to keep climbing up the charts. They face a tough rival here, though, and they aren’t exactly coming off a tour de force performance in their narrow win over Michigan last week. They need to win, and win big, here to continue to gain respect and climb the polls since they are burdened by playing in a pretty underwhelming conference this year.

USC (-10) at Notre Dame
– This is being painted as the game of the week. Like so many games of the week featuring USC, I expect this one to be a bust. Notre Dame has a largely one-dimensional offense, and they haven’t run up against a defense as good as USC has. Notre Dame has played very close games against teams that it should be totally outclassing. For all their faults this year, the Trojans are significantly better than any team they have faced. I don’t see how the Irish can measure up. This could be the end of yet another Heisman campaign – Jimmy Clausen’s.

Continue reading “College Football Preview” →

I’m very intrigued by tonight’s Big East showdown. Cincinnati has a pretty clear road to the BCS if they beat South Florida, and the Bulls have the same if they win. For South Florida that’s especially surprising because stud QB Matt Grothe is on the sideline for the year. There is all sorts of intrigue in this one – is Cincinnati for real? How about South Florida’s surprisingly stout defense? Can Cincy QB Tony Pike put himself into the heart of the Heisman race with a big performance here? How about Cincy receiver Mardy Gilyard? Do the Bearcats deserve national championship consideration? How much of a joke is the Big East? This is probably the highest profile Thursday night game we have seen yet this year. Last week we saw Nebraska, and Ndamukong Suh made a big leap into the Heisman race thanks to that game, so anything can happen here. I really respect Cincy coach Brian Kelly and tend to think that he has things going in the right direction with this program, so I am hoping for them. It’s a tough team in tough location, though, so it certainly won’t be easy.

Continue reading “Thursday Night = Good Football + Baseball” →

It hasn’t been easy to watch the Steelers this year – they are just a shadow of their former selves this year, and are going to have to work hard to make the playoffs, never mind to defend their Super Bowl title. Things certainly didn’t get any better on that front today – the team has had to put DE Aaron Smith on the IR for the year because of a torn rotator cuff. Smith isn’t one of the bigger defensive names in the league, but he really should be – he’s a run blocking machine as good as almost anyone in the NFL. In Smith’s absence, the job is going to be filled by committee – by a bunch of guys who aren’t good enough or ready enough to be starters right now. That’s a significant downgrade for a team that was already struggling defensively compared to what we have become used to from the top defensive team in the league the last two years. The Steelers are all but assured to get seven wins – the three they already have, plus Kansas City, Oakland, and Cleveland twice. That means they need to win four of their remaining seven to comfortably assure themselves a playoff spot. That’s far from impossible, but three of the seven are leading their division, Baltimore falls twice, and there are no soft spots. This team needs to be sharp. Really sharp. Given their early play I think I’d actually bet against a playoff spot.

Continue reading “NFL Notes and Gossip” →

I didn’t watch much of the Florida game today because Michigan was playing at the same time, but what I did see was less than thrilling. It was a typical SEC defensive battle. Maybe it’s a personal fault, but that style of football generally bores the hell out of me. TimTebow didn’t look particularly good in his return to action after his concussion, but he was far better than his counterpart and he got the win. Florida finally proved themselves against their best opponent yet, but I still don’t believe that this is the best team that there is.

Continue reading “Saturday College Football Notes” →

Well, I hadn’t been too excited about baseball for a while now, but that all changed yesterday afternoon. What a freaking ball game that was! It was like watching a boxing match – punch and counter-punch all night long. It’s been a long while since I have enjoyed a game so much. Now it will be interesting to see what happens tonight in New York. The Yankees have been handed tonight’s game on a silver platter – an emotionally and likely physically exhausted team with nasty travel and a depleted bullpen. They will be humiliated if they can’t take advantage of it.

Continue reading “Wednesday Notes” →

A little football, then a little baseball today:

First, the football. That was a very interesting game last night. I wasn’t particularly excited about it – fatigue over the Favre hype. In the end, though, it ended up being interesting for a number of reasons. First, and most troubling for Green Bay, that is one terrible offensive line they have there. Jared Allen is a nice player, but not nearly that nice. He absolutely decimated Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, and gave them little chance of success. The Packers were a team I was very keen on coming into the season, but they stand little chance of doing anything meaningful until they find a way to offer even a little bit of protection. That was pathetic. On the other side, Minnesota’s offensive line performance was very mixed. On one hand, Favre had all of the time in the world to do whatever he wanted, and he made the most of it. On the other hand, though, Adrian Peterson was contained in a very surprising and uncharacteristic way. The final piece of interest out of this game is the question of just how good they Vikings are. They are 4-0 and will be hyped up significantly after this high profile win, but I still don’t feel like we have seen them really be tested. The first two wins against the Browns and the Lions prove nothing. The San Francisco game probably should have been a loss if it wasn’t for the fluky last second pass. The Packers weren’t a particularly real test either given that offensive line. Next up is the Rams, too, so this team will be 5-0 without a true test. This team is good, but we won’t know how good until we see them play the Ravens in week six. In my eyes this is a very tough team to assess right now.

Continue reading “Looking Back, Then Looking Ahead” →

How bad could it get for the Sooners? They started out with reasonably high hopes this year, but the fates have conspired against them and they are just 2-2. After seeing them lose to a good but not great Miami team you really have to wonder how bad it could get for this team. A lot probably depends upon the status of Sam Bradford, but I think it has been clearly established by now that he doesn’t have the tools to work with that he did last year. Just looking at the schedule, I find it hard to believe right now that they will beat Texas. Kansas is playing very well right now, and they get the Sooners in Lawrence, so Kansas wouldn’t even have to pull off a major upset to win that one. Nebraska is also playing tough, and also gets to host Oklahoma. They also have to travel to pesky Texas Tech. And then the season ending game against Oklahoma State looms. I don’t want to suggest that it is going to happen, but it is certainly possible that a team that started the season ranked third overallcould wind up as bad as 6-6. 9-3 or 8-4 seems more likely, but no matter what this is not how Sam Bradford saw this season going when he decided to come back.

Continue reading “Monday Notes” →

The Jets are mortal after all – I’ve been feeling all along that it is important to look at the Jets with context. They have been impressive on both sides of the ball, but it wasn’t going to be sustainable through all 16 games. That just wasn’t possible given that they were working with a totally rebuilt defense and a rookie quarterback. I don’t want to suggest that things are bleak or hopeless for this team – far from it. I just think that the setback against the Saints should remind us that our expectations for teams need to be reasonable or they will be costly.

Continue reading “Sunday NFL Lessons” →

Here are the storylines that stand out for me this week in college football action:

Michigan (+2) at Michigan State
– The Spartans have been terrible so far this year. The Wolverines have yet to play on the road, and have gotten worse defensively as the season has progressed. This is a big rivalry game, and one team is going to wind up very disappointed.

South Florida (-6.5) at Syracuse
– Was last week’s stunning upset a fluke, or is B.J. Daniels ready to do big things at South Florida. And will GregPaulus continue to take strides forward?

Alabama (-16.5) at Kentucky
– We saw what the Gators did against Kentucky last week, so this is a way to get a very rough estimate of how the top two teams in the SEC measure up.

Penn State (-7) at Illinois
– Both teams need to bounce back from embarrassing performances last week. Illinois really needs to find a way to pull off a win this week in an attempt to get a once promising season back on track.

UCLA(+6) at Stanford
– One of these teams has a good chance of being a factor in the Pac-10 race. This game will give us a good sense of which one.

LSU (+3) at Georgia
– I really don’t believe in either of these teams. A decisive win by one of them would be a sign that they achieve their rankings. For now, I think both are badly overrated.

Washington (+13.5) at Notre Dame
– The Irish need a convincing win over someone to prove themselves. Washington needs to bounce back from last week and prove that their USC performance was no fluke.

Oklahoma (-7.5) at Miami
– Will Sam Bradford play? How well? Can Miami bounce back from last week’s humiliation, or are they exhausted from their ridiculously tough opening string of games?

USC (-5) at Cal
– Two weeks ago you could have argued convincingly that this game was for a spot in the BCS championship. Now it’s next to impossible to know what we have from either team. This could be a great game, or it could be a train wreck, but it will be interesting either way.

Houston (-16) at UTEP
– I will be watching Houston closely all the way through this season. They have a couple of impressive wins already, so if they could remain undefeated they could create a real headache for the BCS. Besides that, they are just so much fun to watch.

Injuries are always a big story in football – it’s the nature of the game. This year is no exception. Both the college and the pro games have been hit with an amazing number of key injuries that have to be seriously considered in betting decisions. Here’s a look at some of the more important ones:

Continue reading “Injuries, Injuries and More Injuries” →

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