NFL Betting Picks Week #6: Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 16, 2016, 4:25 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, Wisconsin
Opening Line: Green Bay -7
Current Line: Green Bay -4 1/2
Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 47
Opening Money Line: Packers -215 / Cowboys +185
Current Money Line: Packers -200 / Cowboys +170

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Green Bay hosts Dallas in a battle of one loss teams.

The 4-1 Dallas Cowboys and 3-1 Green Bay Packers renew their rivalry Sunday at Lambeau Field. Dallas leads the NFC East by a half game over the 3-1 Philadelphia Eagles. Green Bay is in second place in the NFC North behind the 5-0 Minnesota Vikings.

Green Bay leads the series 17-16 against Dallas. The Packers have won 5 straight games in the series dating back to 2009. The winning streak includes memorable 2015 playoff game that the Packers won 26-21 in Lambeau after a controversial overturn of a touchdown catch by Dallas receiver Dez Bryant on fourth and two with under two minutes left in Green Bay. The Packers won at home last year 28-7 against the Cowboys.

Dallas is coached by Jason Garrett. The Cowboys lost their season opener 20-19 against the New York Giants. The Cowboys have won four straight games since with a road wins at the Washington Redskins 27-23 and San Francisco 49ers 24-17 and home wins over the Chicago Bears 31-17 and Cincinnati Bengals 28-14 last week. Dallas jumped out to a 28-0 last Sunday against Cincinnati before giving up two late touchdowns. The Cowboys were 2.5 point underdogs against the Bengals and the total was 46. Dallas is 4-1 ATS and the total is 2-3 this season.

Green Bay is coached by Mike McCarthy. Green Bay has a road win at the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-23 and home win against the Detroit Lions 34-27 and New York Giants 23-16 last Sunday night. Green Bay led 17-6 at halftime and 23-9 in the fourth quarter against the Giants last week. The Packers lost at the Vikings 17-14. Green Bay was a 7 point favorite against New York and the total was 49. The Packers are 2-1-1 ATS and the total is 2-2 this season.

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Dallas is outscoring teams 26-18 this season. The Cowboys are #8 in scoring and #8 in points allowed. Dallas averages 397 yards per game on offense including 242 passing and 155 rushing yards. The Cowboys are #2  in total offense and lead the league in rushing. On defense, Dallas is allowing 356 total yards including 261 passing and 95 rushing yards. Dallas is 33/64 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 27/62. Dallas has forced 7 sacks and allowed 10 this season. Dallas is +2 in turnovers.

Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott has been impressive in relief of an injured Tony Romo. He has completed 69% of his passes for 1,239 yards with 4 touchdowns, and has yet to throw an interception. He needs six attempts to tie Tom Brady’s record more most passing attempts without an interception to start an NFL career He also has 19 carries for 61 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. Romo could return after the bye next week after suffering a broken bone in his back in the pre-season.

Rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott has 109 carries for 546 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 9 catches for 81 yards. He leads the league in rushing. Alfred Morris has 30 carries for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns. Lance Dunbar will also get some carries. He has 5 catches for 56 yards and also has a rushing touchdown.

Receiver Dez Bryant is doubtful with a hairline fracture in his knee after missing the last two games. He has 11 catches for 150 yards and a touchdown. Cole Beasley has become Prescott’s favorite target. He has 27 catches for 332 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Jason Witten has 24 catches for 232 yards. He is questionable with a chest injury. Terrance Williams has 16 catches for 236 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a shoulder injury. Brice Butler has 8 catches for 77 yards and a touchdown. Kicker Dan Bailey is questionable with a back injury.  Eight defensive players are injured or suspended as are three offensive linemen.

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Green Bay is outscoring teams 25-21 this season. The Packers average 322 yards per game on offense including 210 passing and 112 rushing yards. The Packers are #25 in total offense and #27 in passing offense. On defense, Green Bay allows 318 total yards per game including 275 passing and 43 rushing yards per game. The Packers are #24 against the pass but lead the league in rush defense. Green Bay is 28/58 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 25/63. The Packers have forced 14 sacks and allowed 8 this season. Green Bay is -1 in turnovers.

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has completed 56.1% of his passes for 876 yards with 9 touchdowns and 2 touchdowns, along with 17 catches for 82 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Running back Eddie Lacy has 54 carries for 295 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 3 catches for 22 yards. He is questionable with an ankle injury. James Starks has 24 carries for 42 yards plus 6 catches. He is out with a knee injury. Receiver Randall Cobb could start at running back if Lacy can’t go as he played both positions in college.  Fullback Aaron Ripkowski could get some carries.

Receiver Jordy Nelson has 21 catches for 244 and 5 touchdowns. He has been great after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. Cobb has 21 catches for 240 yards, plus 5 carries for 12 yards. He is probable with a neck injury. Davante Adams has 13 catches for 184 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is questionable for undisclosed reasons. Tight end Richard Rodgers has 6 catches and a touchdown. Tight end Jared Cook is out until early November with an ankle injury. Five defensive players are listed on the injury report.

Dallas is 4-0 ATS in week six and overall, 11-2 on grass, 3-1-1 after rushing for more than 150 yards, 5-2 against teams with winning home records, 13-6 in road games, 1-3-1 after gaining more than 350 total yards, and 0-5-1 against teams with winning records. The under is 4-1 in Green Bay in this series.

Green Bay is 4-0-1 ATS on grass, 6-1 after passing for 250 yards or more, 5-1 after failing to cover, 4-1 in week six, and after allowing less than 250 total yards, 4-1-1 overall, 16-5-1 in October, 3-1-1 against NFC teams, and 39-17-3 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards. The home team is 10-3 ATS in this series and the favorite is 9-4 ATS. The Packers are 5-2 ATS against the Cowboys including 4-1 in Lambeau.

This will be a battle of the Cowboys’ #1 ranked rushing attack against the Packers’ #1 ranked rush defense. Green Bay hasn’t faced strong rushing team team yet though besides Minnesota and Adrian Peterson tore his meniscus in that game in the first half and would not return. There are a lot of injuries at the skill positions for both teams. I think the Cowboys pull off the upset on the road in a low scoring game.

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