NASCAR Ford 400: Sprint Cup Action Continues – Free Betting Picks

Hamlin is again a great value pick at 22/1 this week
The Sprint Cup action continues in Miami for the Ford 400. We’ll take a look at some of the front runners and top value picks for the race. All betting odds are taken from Bodog.

Kyle Busch (12/1)

In 2009, he finished 8th in this race but prior to ’09 he had only finished 19th and worse, and his average finish is 26.3. I am including him here not because I encourage picking him for this race, but to warn you not to. He hasn’t ran good at Homestead and if the race were evaluated solely on its merits, there is no way he would be 12/1

Brad Keselowski (20/1)

In his three races at Homestead, he has finished in the top 25 all three times, including a 13th place finish last season, when he started 18th and had an 18th place running position. While a victory may not be in the cards, he should finish high and makes another great value pick, though there are others I would place before him (Treux and Allmedinger in particuarly) in terms of pure value.

Kurt Busch (22/1)

Last year at this race, Busch finished 18th, but he has had a lot of success at this track. He needs to get off to a good start. When Bushc has finished in the top 5, he has led a lot of laps, but when finishing out of the top 5, he hasn’t led a single lap. That statistic speaks volumes to Busch’s need to get going ealry in the race and take control.

Denny Hamlin (22/1)

Hamlin won this race in 2009. In his six starts at the track, he has finished top three in three of them. Last year, he finished 14th, but started 37th, so he made up ground there, too. In 2010, he had an accident with Biffle. Despite his struggles in the Chase, Hamlin remains a great value pick at 22/1.

David Ragan (28/1)

Ragan finished 10th in his first race at Homestead, but has gone 24th, 34th, and 20th in his last three. What does bode well for Ragan, however, is the fact that he has finished 11th and 12th in his last two intermediate track races.

Clint Bowyer (30/1)

Homestead has been a good track to Bowyer and the 33 team. In four of the his five races he has finished in the top 12 and that bodes well for him tomorrow. However, despite his apparent success, he has only led 1 lap. He’ll have to focus on trying to win races rather than just compete, because it seems a lot of opportunities he has, he lets pass by in terms of passing people at critical junctures. If he can get aggressive early, he could make big waves in this race and again is a great value at 30/1.

A.J. Allmendinger (40/1)

At 40/1 odds, you could do a lot worse. Allmedinger has the fourth best average finish in the series and he finished 11th, 10th, and 5th in his last three races. He had the sixth best driver rating and sixth bes running position last year and Allmendinger offers a lot of value here.

Martin Treux Jr. (50/1)

Homestead is a track that favors a driver like Treux. He has three top 10 finishes and an average finish of 7.6 in the series and last season he led 62 laps en route to finishing 11th. He’s great at a track like this because he has shown the ability to run fast laps around the high line of the progressive banks. On a track like Homestead, that can do great things for Treux and possibly enable him to pull into the lead like he did last season. Maybe this year he holds it? At 50/1, I’ll take my chances.

Marcos Ambrose (60/1)

More than his merits as a driver, this is about the RPM Ford he will be driving, which should be fast this week. In 2009, many pundits felt he had one of the best cars early on, and if he can manage as a driver to take advantage of the factors his car will enable him to excel at, then it could be his race. At 60/1, he is another great value.

Now that you have examined some of the better value picks and been advised to stay away from Busch, I recommend backing up one of these fine picks with a wager at Bodog, where they offer a 10% bonus on deposits and a great hassle free cashout system. We recommend Bodog for all of your NASCAR betting needs.

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