Monday MLB Betting Preview – Reds at Mets

The Mets starter brings an unblemished home record to the table against the NL Central-leading Reds at Citi Field.

Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets

Cincinnati banged out seven home runs in a 14-3 victory over the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Sunday.  “You could tell in batting practice it was going to be a good day for the hitters,” Reds outfielder Drew Stubbs said.  The team leads the National League in hitting, runs, hits, total bases, home runs, RBI and hitting with runners in scoring position.  The club is 20-17 on the road this season (+470) and 8-2 as a road underdog of +100 to +125 (+740).  They’ve been dynamite in that role over the last three years, producing a 35-28 record (+1,230).  Cincinnati took two of three at home from the Mets in May, but is 5-12 in New York since 2005.

Reds starting pitcher Aaron Harang is 6-7 with a 5.02 ERA in 17 starts (-280), with the team picking up two straight victories over the Indians and Phillies.  He went 0-3 with a 8.31 ERA in his first four outings and has produced a 6-4 record and 4.12 ERA in his last 13 starts.  The right-hander is 1-3 with a 5.63 ERA in six road starts (-420), allowing 44 hits in 32 innings of work.  Harang has made six career starts against the Mets, posting a 2-3 record and 6.11 ERA, including a loss in his only start at Citi Field.  He lasted just three innings in that contest, surrendering five runs and eight hiws while striking out just two.

New York has won two of its last three games and the team’s 26-13 record over the last 39 games is the second-best in the majors during that span (Boston 27-12).  The Mets return home after a 3-4 road trip, as the team is 1-5 on road trips this season.  The first game of a series is always important to focus on when handicapping the Mets, as they’ve gone 16-11 in the first game of a series this year, including 11-2 at Citi Field.  New York went 7-for-16 with runners in scoring position on Sunday and lead the majors with a .331 batting average in the category since May 21.  The Mets bring a 28-12 overall record at home into this contest (+1,420), with the total being 16-23 O/U in those games.

Mets starting pitcher Mike Pelfrey is 10-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 17 games (16 starts) this season.  The big right-hander is a perfect 6-0 with a 1.98 ERA in nine home outings (+710), allowing just two home runs in 59 innings.  He is currently tied for fourth in the majors with 10 wins and ranks 10th in the National League in earned run average.  Pelfrey has earned more wins in July than any other month in his career (9).  Last season, he went 3-3 with a 4.84 ERA in six July starts.  In 11 nighttime starts this year, he is a perfect 8-0 wit ha 1.95 ERA.  He has made six career appearances (five starts) versus the Reds, posting a 3-1 record and 4.73 ERA, managing to strike out just 17 batters in 32.1 frames.

Bettors are likely to go all in with Pelfrey’s perfect record at home and the Mets dominating mark at Citi Field.  New York is 11-5 at home with a money line of -100 to -125 this season (+520).  The Reds certainly offer some resistance in getting overzealous in playing the home team, especially with a 32-25 mark against right-handed starters and enough left-handed pop in the lineup to bother the Mets starter.

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