1. Alabama isn’t as good as we thought. I don’t like Kentucky much at all. This should be a rebuilding year for them. That makes it more than a bit concerning to me that they played the Tide as close as they did. Any team can have a bad day – just ask USC or Ohio State. My concern with Alabama, though, is that Kentucky was able to set the tone on both sides of the ball at times, and they were able to completely neutralize the passing game. That doesn’t bode well for a team that still has two or three tough games ahead. I know that they beat up on Georgia, but I don’t like them, either. My comfortable prediction – Alabama won’t finish the year in the top five.
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We’ll delay our PS2 simulations for a day because there are just too many interesting stories bouncing around out there that need to be looked at:
1. Lane Kiffin – I can’t believe what a bizarre mess this has become, and given that it was the Raiders I expected it to get ridiculous. By leaving Kiffin twisting so long, Davis seriously damaged any progress his team could ake this year. BY getting rid of him in the ridiculous way he did – refusing to pay him what he is owed and then unleashing in a bizarre, barely coherent press conference – he has alienated any players that were still loyal to Kiffin, and has ensured a split in the locker room. It’s almost as if Davis doesn’t want to exist. I certainly won’t be touching this team in their next game, but my guess is that they are going to come out flat. I just don’t know how they can play well through this circus.
Worst NFL Game of the Week – This is harder to spot than most weeks – the matchups mostly have at least a little interest. That means that, more than any week so far, there really isn’t a truly bad game here. That means we have to pick the worst of a decent bunch. In my mind that’s going to be Cincinnati at Dallas. The Bengals are truly, absolutely awful, and they may not have Carson Palmer in action. Even if they do he won’t be healthy. The Cowboys had an off game, and I expect them to come back hungry and angry. This one should be a dull, lopsided mess.
Best NFL Game of the Week – As I said before, there are a lot of good games this week, but none that are true and obvious classics, so this is a tight competition. There are a couple or runner-ups. Tennessee at Baltimore is a battle of two teams that are better than they were probably expected to be, and it should be a classic defensive battle. Buffalo at Arizona is a good test of a team that has been an upstart and wants to prove that they are for real. For my winner, though, I have to go to the most consistently excellent division in the league so far this year – the NFC East. Washington and Philly are both promising teams that don’t quite have their acts completely together, but they both have obvious promise. It should be good.
Game With Teams With the Most to Prove – Indianapolis and Houston. Coming into the season the Colts were favored to win their division, and a lot of people had Houston picked as a wild card team. They have combined to go 1-5 so far. They both have a world of problems, but both present just enough points of optimism to keep fans interested. A loss here will be a huge blow to either team.
Ridiculously Over-hyped – Terrell Owens has assured that we are going to hear about the Cowboys way, way more than we need to. Thanks, buddy.
1. The polls are essentially meaningless at this point in the season. Ranked teams that played unranked teams were 6-9 ATS this week. Five of those ranked teams lost their games despite being double digit favorites. The lower ranked team won both games played between ranked teams.
The Blue Jays have extended Cito Gaston as manager through the 2010 season. Let me be the first to prematurely declare this team as one to watch next year. The tough AL East should be even tougher thanks to this move. It is no fluke that the Jays have been a much improved squad since the calming influence of Gaston has been in charge. He thinks offense, he doesn’t tolerate crap, and he has the respect of his charges. The team is 48-36 since Gaston took over, and made the AL East race more interesting. The team likely has a spot or two in the rotation to fill, and they still need a bat or two, but the core of this team is good enough to compete. A very good move.
Once more with a look forward to the weekend:
Worst NFL game of the week – This is getting pretty easy. You just look at the games involving Kansas City and St. Louis and decide which one is more painful. That has worked so far, but I am actually going to do something different this time around. Kansas City hosts Denver. That won’t be exciting, and the Chiefs won’t win, but the Broncos have an explosive offense and should be able to burn up the scoreboard. Scoring is fun to watch. Buffalo visits St. Louis. That one will be interesting for a couple of reasons – we can see what Trent Edwards can do in a glorified practice, and we can see if Trent Green still has any game. That leaves me with my choice – Cleveland at Cincinnati. Two broken teams with enormous problems. The potential for true terribleness.
We’re going to try another new feature for the football season. Each Monday we are going to look back at some of the teams that the large majority of people weren’t backing that nonetheless managed to cover the spread. We’ll look back at their stats or their performance coming in to see what could have tipped us off to the eventual outcome. In other words, we’ll go back and make a case for betting on the eventual winners. This is my way of saying ‘I knew it all along’, even when I didn’t necessarily. This isn’t to suggest that the underdogs were always the right pick. It’s just that doing this can fulfill two important roles – it can potentially help us learn for next time, and it can be therapy to ease the pain of losses. Without further ado:
1. I think that I’m not yet convinced that Chase Daniel is the clear Heisman leader that people say he is. Sure, the stats are compelling – he’s top five in the country in completion percentage, passing yards, yards per attempt, yards per game, and touchdowns. He’s only been sacked once, and he’s thrown just one pick. On top of all that, he completed 20 in a row against Buffalo. Here’s the thing, though – he’s only played one BCS team – Illinois – and his stats in that game were significantly worse than the rest – his completion percentage was 25 points worse, his yards per attempt were much worse, and both the pick and the sack came in that game. It’s not exactly like the Illini are known for their stout defense, either. Don’t get me wrong, I like him and his team. I just want to hold judgment until he gets through his tough stretch of next four games – Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas, Colorado. That’s a much better test of where he is at than what we have seen so far.
If you guessed that today we would be looking at the 0-2 teams then give yourself a pat on the back. There are ten winless squads, and those range from the absolutely inevitable to the absolutely shocking. We’ll go alphabetically agan:
Based on the title of this article a detective could probably figure out what we are going to look at tomorrow. Before then, though, let’s assess which of the 2-0 teams seem like they are for real, and which ones are lucky to be where they are. There are ten teams that have yet to lose. We’ll take a quick look at each of them, and we’ll do it alphabetically to avoid any claims of bias:
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