The ending of the Pittsburgh – San Diego game has all sorts of bettors crying foul. The total was 40.5, so the under was secure as the score was 11-10 with seconds left. What wasn’t determined, though, was the spread. Pittsburgh was favored by 4.5, and about two-thirds of the money was bet on them. Needless to say, the sportsbooks would have much preferred a San Diego cover. Hence the conspiracy theories.
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There is one team left in the NFL that has a shot at reaching hallowed heights. It is almost impossible to be perfect in the tough, unpredictable, parity-filled league. But one team has the schedule, the talent, the coaching, the management, and that certain je ne sais quoi to go all the way. I’m talking, of course, about the Detroit Lions. Perfect futility is perhaps tougher to achieve than perfect success, but if any team can pull it off it is the Lions. And if they did I think it would be an even bigger accomplishment than what New England did last year.
I’m not going to offer a pick or any specific analysis about tonight’s huge NFL game – that’s not what I do here. This is a very interesting game, though, so I do want to take a closer look at it. Here are five different elements to this game that I will be watching closely, and which have factored significantly into my handicapping of the game:
As we get prepared for a busy weekend of sporting action, there are some injury notes that are worth a look:
Greg Oden – The big guy is supposed to return to action tonight for the Trail Blazers. That should be a boost for Portland, but I will hold judgment until I see two different things – how well he is physically, and whether he can last for more than a minute and a half this time. Oden is frustrating and hard to trust at this point, but I can’t wait to see what he can do if he can settle in and get comfortable. This team could use a boost.
Worst NFL Game of the Week – The Monday night game is certainly not going to be a gem – neither Cleveland nor Buffalo are in a particularly good place right now. It’s gets worse, though. Late Sunday afternoon the Niners will play in St. Louis. Two struggling offenses with all sorts of troubles. Ugly, ugly, ugly. Insomniacs rejoice – the cure has been found.
Best NFL Game of the Week – It should be Tennessee at Jacksonville, San Diego at Pittsburgh, or Dallas at Washington, but each of those games features one deeply flawed team that robs the game of some potential. The Jets at New England is a good old fashioned showdown for the division lead. It’s not all it could be, but it should still be compelling. My choice, though, is an unexpected one – Baltimore at the Giants. The Ravens are red hot, and the Giants are probably the best team in the league. It should be a battle of wills.
Game With Teams With The Most To Prove – Cleveland and Buffalo. The Bills need to end their ugly, ugly slide that threatens to rob them of the promise their early season showed. Cleveland lost ugly yet again on Thursday, and they desperately need to do something to get things off to a strong start in the Quinn era.
Matt Holliday appears to be heading to Oakland. I’ll spend more time looking at this one next spring, but my initial reaction is that this is positive – it’s the first time in a long while that the A’s have been a buyer, not a seller. Oakland fans deserve that. Holliday has to be relieved, too – given that he knew he was leaving Colorado there were certainly less hitter friendly places he could have wound up.
1. The Big Ten got lucky. Penn State put up a lousy effort and lost to a team that they never should have lost to. That’s a good thing. I love the Big Ten, but it has been a horrible year for my conference. By losing, Penn State has avoided a third straight ass-kicking for the conference in the national championship game. That will allow the conference to rebuild and strengthen with slightly less scrutiny than they would if they got crushed. The conference will rebuild. There are things to build on – Terrelle Pryor is finding his way, and two of the top three runners in the country are in the conference.
Every so often when I am reading through the sports news of the day I find myself thinking that a story is important, only to realize that it really isn’t after thinking about it for a while. There are a two that fit into that category today:
Dan Orlovsky is headed to the IR – Detroit’s starting QB is probably going to wind up on the injured reserve after breaking his thumb in two places and damaging a ligament. That means that the Lions are going to be without there starting QB. Normally that matters, but here it doesn’t really. First, Orlovsky isn’t a great player. He’s better than the public gives him credit for, but he’s not a huge improvement over either of the team’s other two options. Second, he probably wasn’t going to play this weekend anyway, or if he was he was going to be on a short leash. The team is desperate enough to try anything that might get them a win – especially at home – and that means that they will put Daunte Culpepper in even if he isn’t ready. At the very least that will appease the home fans for a while. In short, Orlovsky’s injury will have very little impact on the line, and only slightly more on the outcome of the game. Quarterbacking is a problem for the Lions, but so is every other position group. The team could have a quarterback who is a whole lot better than Orlovsky or Culpepper and they would still be in trouble.
Continue reading “Two Stories That Sound Like They Matter, But Don’t”
Notes from around the sports, and sports betting, world today:
1. I can’t believe what a mess the Raiders are. De Angelo Hall hasn’t been worth the money they are paying him, but anyone with half a brain knew that that would be the case before the deal was done – especially since the Raiders didn’t really need corner help. Cutting him now may save a few bucks, but it has to throw the locker room into turmoil, and it makes the team a laughing stock. Or more of one. Good luck trying to attract free agents to town now. Especially if they cut Javon Walker, too. It is hard to imagine a time when this team is competitive again – at least not until after Al Davis’ funeral. From a betting perspective, it will be a long while until I can imagine seeing any value in them given their woes and the total chaos.
Worst NFL Game of the Week – This one is a no-brainer – it’s Jacksonville at Detroit. The Jaguars just lost to the freaking Bengals, and the Lions are as pathetic as a team can be. One of these teams is going to score more points, but neither of these teams are going to be winners. This is football at its worst.
Best NFL Game of the Week – There are several to choose from. Buffalo at New England is a huge battle for divisional supremacy. Indianapolis at Pittsburgh could be good if the Colts can manage to show up two weeks in a row. The Giants at Philadelphia is another big one from a divisional perspective. My choice, though, is Tennessee at Chicago. The Bears are much better, and more fun to watch, than most people thought. Tennessee just keeps finding ways to win. It should be fascinating.
Game With Teams With The Most To Prove – This one would be Green Bay at Minnesota. Both teams are underachieving, and both need to win to be competitive in a wide open division. They both have strengths, but both need to overcome some consistent problems if they still want to be standing eight weeks from now.
Oddest Line – Given what happened to the teams last year – one team made the playoffs as a division winner yet again, and the other won one game – how odd is it to see the Dolphins favored by 9.5 over the Seahawks? It’s a reasonably sound line, but it shows just how quickly things can change in this league.
Best College Game – For once this one doesn’t feature Texas, but it is still from the incedibly entertaining Big 12. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech – which upstart will survive? Using some basic algebra, the Red raiders have a slight edge – they beat Texas and Oklahoma State, playing their best, didn’t. Plus Texas tech is at home. THe game is as close as one can be – the three point spread is entirely explained by the home field. This could be yet another classic from the conference.
Filling Me With Dread – Michigan plays Minnesota this week. It’s in Minnesota. My Wolverines will lose badly. I’m resigned to the inevitable.
Four Interesting Games Between Unranked Teams – Louisville (+6.5) at Pittsburgh. The Panthers can play when they want to, and they can disappoint with regularity, too. It will be interesting to see which team shows up with the conference title in their grasp. Wyoming (+25) at Tennessee. How will the Vols play in their first game with a lame duck coach? Under normal circumstances they would win in a walk, so anything less than that indicates problems. Stanford (+13) at Oregon. The Cardinal were ridiculously dominant against Washington State last week. Some of that can be explained by how awful the Cougars are, but some comes dow to a promising team starting to find their stride. This game will be a good measure of how far Stanford has progressed. NC State (+4.5) at Duke. College basketball is just around the corner, but until it arrives we can make due with this game between basketball schools. Beyond that, the interest here is to see whether Duke can do the impossible and become bowl eligible.
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