1. Alabama isn’t as good as we thought. I don’t like Kentucky much at all. This should be a rebuilding year for them. That makes it more than a bit concerning to me that they played the Tide as close as they did. Any team can have a bad day – just ask USC or Ohio State. My concern with Alabama, though, is that Kentucky was able to set the tone on both sides of the ball at times, and they were able to completely neutralize the passing game. That doesn’t bode well for a team that still has two or three tough games ahead. I know that they beat up on Georgia, but I don’t like them, either. My comfortable prediction – Alabama won’t finish the year in the top five.
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Once again, here’s a look at the games this week that are catching my eye. As always, I want to be clear that these are picked out because they have interesting storylines, not because I suggest that they are good bets, or that I am making a pick. When I am looking at games I definitely differentiate between the games that I am interested in betting and the ones I am interesting in exploring further. These games fit into the latter, and they are just fun to think about. Put another way – some games I only watch because I bet on them. These are the games I would watch whether I had any action or not.
Time once again to look at what NCAA 09 on my PlayStation 2 has to say about three of this week’s more interesting games. If last week was any indication, you might want to do exactly the opposite of what it says – the machine was an ugly 0-3 ATS. We’ll see if it can do better before we give up on it entirely. As with last time the machine will do all of the work, and I have updated the rosters accordingly. Without further ado:
Auburn (-4) at Vanderbilt – This one didn’t entirely mirror an Auburn game – there was actually scoring. It also wasn’t entirely typical because Auburn’s offense was more effective through the air than on the ground. QB Chris Todd had a ruthlessly efficient game, ending up with three TDs and a gaudy QB rating. Chris Nickson wasn’t nearly that effective, but that fits with reality – he is not a passing machine. In the end, Auburn came from behind to win 28-21 and cover the spread.
Oregon (+16.5) at USC – USC needed to bounce back in a big way from a terrible effort last week. Though it wasn’t pretty, they pretty much did. The final score was 20-0, so their fearsome defense was actually fearsome again. Oregon was truly terrible, managing just 75 yards in total offense. Their quarterback problems finally caught up to them. Mark Sanchez only completed 55 percent of his passes, and had just one TD, but at least he eliminated the mistakes that were so costly against the other team from Oregon.
Ohio State (-1) at Wisconsin – The Badgers shouldn’t have lost to Michigan last week, and they played like they were still too ombarrassed by that to focus. They got behind early to the Buckeyes, and though they fought hard they just couldn’t come back to win. Ohio State ended up winning 24-17. They did it mostly on the ground. Beanie Wells had a solid game, complete with a touchdown. The star, once again, was Terrelle Pryor. He threw for a touchdown, and scampered 75 yards for another one.
We’ll delay our PS2 simulations for a day because there are just too many interesting stories bouncing around out there that need to be looked at:
1. Lane Kiffin – I can’t believe what a bizarre mess this has become, and given that it was the Raiders I expected it to get ridiculous. By leaving Kiffin twisting so long, Davis seriously damaged any progress his team could ake this year. BY getting rid of him in the ridiculous way he did – refusing to pay him what he is owed and then unleashing in a bizarre, barely coherent press conference – he has alienated any players that were still loyal to Kiffin, and has ensured a split in the locker room. It’s almost as if Davis doesn’t want to exist. I certainly won’t be touching this team in their next game, but my guess is that they are going to come out flat. I just don’t know how they can play well through this circus.
Worst NFL Game of the Week – This is harder to spot than most weeks – the matchups mostly have at least a little interest. That means that, more than any week so far, there really isn’t a truly bad game here. That means we have to pick the worst of a decent bunch. In my mind that’s going to be Cincinnati at Dallas. The Bengals are truly, absolutely awful, and they may not have Carson Palmer in action. Even if they do he won’t be healthy. The Cowboys had an off game, and I expect them to come back hungry and angry. This one should be a dull, lopsided mess.
Best NFL Game of the Week – As I said before, there are a lot of good games this week, but none that are true and obvious classics, so this is a tight competition. There are a couple or runner-ups. Tennessee at Baltimore is a battle of two teams that are better than they were probably expected to be, and it should be a classic defensive battle. Buffalo at Arizona is a good test of a team that has been an upstart and wants to prove that they are for real. For my winner, though, I have to go to the most consistently excellent division in the league so far this year – the NFC East. Washington and Philly are both promising teams that don’t quite have their acts completely together, but they both have obvious promise. It should be good.
Game With Teams With the Most to Prove – Indianapolis and Houston. Coming into the season the Colts were favored to win their division, and a lot of people had Houston picked as a wild card team. They have combined to go 1-5 so far. They both have a world of problems, but both present just enough points of optimism to keep fans interested. A loss here will be a huge blow to either team.
Ridiculously Over-hyped – Terrell Owens has assured that we are going to hear about the Cowboys way, way more than we need to. Thanks, buddy.
1. The polls are essentially meaningless at this point in the season. Ranked teams that played unranked teams were 6-9 ATS this week. Five of those ranked teams lost their games despite being double digit favorites. The lower ranked team won both games played between ranked teams.
It’s time for another look at the key games of interest this weekend from among the top 25. As always, I haven’t picked these out because they necessarily represent the best bets, and I am not representing them as picks. They are merely the ones with the storylines that I find most interesting this weekend. Without further ado:
If there was any doubt that college football is the craziest, greatest, most heartbreaking sport there is it was all dispelled tonight in Oregon. If you live nder a rock and missed it, the Oregon State Beavers took a 21-0 lead into halftime against USC, and then held on to win 27-21. The game just ended, so here are my immediate thoughts:
I’m always on the lookout for new and different ways to pick games. Some things work and some things don’t. Often as not it seems to be the human factor that turns a good handicapping effort into a bad one. With that in mind, I thought it would be fun, if not useful, to take the human factor out of things. Each week for the rest of the season we are going to take three high profile games and let my PlayStation 2 tell me what t do. We’ll simulate the games using the starting rosters, and using NCAA Football 09 from EA Sports. We’ll keep track to see how things go and if it has strengths and weaknesses. Standard disclaimer – this is just for fun and doesn’t represent real picks in any way. Put another way, you would have to be on drugs to bet these.
Alabama (+6.5) at Georgia – The battle for early SEC supremacy should be a good one. It wasn’t too bad in video game form. Georgia jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead, but Alabama tied t up by the half. Georgia scored again early in the second half, but then things ground to a halt. There was just one more field goal, by Georgia, and the defenses were clearly in command. Neither team successfully established a run, and Alabama actually led in total offense, but Georgia won the game 17-7. That’s a cover.
Minnesota (+18.5) at Ohio State – This one sets up to be more interesting than t appeared it would be at the start of the game. Minnesota has played very well, and seems to finally be rebuilding. Ohio State is reeling, though they have new life thanks to Terrelle Pryor. I played the simulation with Beanie Wells back in action. Both teams struggled early, with just a field goal by Ohio State in the first quarter. The Buckeyes had the lead 13-0 by the half, and the Gophers couldn’t get anything going. Another touchdown in the fourth gave the Buckeyes a 20-0 win, and an uninspiring cover. Minnesota showed that they still have a lot of work to do, but Ohio State again didn’t look like the dominant force many expected them to be at the start of the season. Pryor completed 60 percent of his passes, but didn’t have near the game he did last week, and looked more like a freshman than the all-world stud he did last week. Wells only ran for 79 yards, but scored both Buckeye touchdowns. Minnesota’s passing was awful.
TCU (+18.5) at Oklahoma – The Mountain West continues it’s battle for legitimacy against potentially the second best team in the country. Both teams can score, but it is perhaps the defenses that are underappreciated and will dictate the tone of the game. At least that’s what happened in video world. Oklahoma got off to a solid start and looked like they would run away with it – they were up 14-0 by the beginning of the second quarter. TCU settled in and made a game of it, though, scoring the next 10 points. Ultimately, the Sooners were too much for the Frogs, but TCU was more than respectable, losing 23-10. That’s a cover for the underdogs. Sam Bradford’s passing yards were down, but he was still the star of the game, completing 72 percent of his passes, and tossing three touchdowns.
Once more with a look forward to the weekend:
Worst NFL game of the week – This is getting pretty easy. You just look at the games involving Kansas City and St. Louis and decide which one is more painful. That has worked so far, but I am actually going to do something different this time around. Kansas City hosts Denver. That won’t be exciting, and the Chiefs won’t win, but the Broncos have an explosive offense and should be able to burn up the scoreboard. Scoring is fun to watch. Buffalo visits St. Louis. That one will be interesting for a couple of reasons – we can see what Trent Edwards can do in a glorified practice, and we can see if Trent Green still has any game. That leaves me with my choice – Cleveland at Cincinnati. Two broken teams with enormous problems. The potential for true terribleness.
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