I’m going to weigh in tomorrow with in-game analysis during both games. Until then, I just wanted to share a couple of interesting things that have popped up today and provide us with more to think about as we try to make winning picks on the big games:
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Author: T.O. Whentam
The betting-related sports news that is catching my eye in five different sports
Baseball – Pitcher Johnny Cueto of Cincinnati struck out ten in seven innings and only allowed one hit and one earned run to lead his team past Arizona. This guy is ridiculously good, and he should present decent value until the public starts to figure that out.
This is the second week in a row that I have written this same type of article. It’s almost as if it is a recurring feature or something.
Here’s what is bouncing through my mind on this hump day:
1. Memphis is still favored? – I am shocked. It’s not that I don’t think that they should be – I have them narrowly favored to win it all. It’s just that I never thought that the public would go this way. It goes to show just how short the attention span of people is – a week ago Memphis was doomed and UCLA was the power.
Continue reading “10 Questions Bouncing Through My Mind – Redux”
I was sitting down to take my first long look at the Final Four today when, as I often do, I started to think about whether there were overriding rules that should be followed when handicapping college basketball’s last three games of the year. I tend to do this kind of thing whenever I am faced with an annual event. It’s not because I am looking for a system or a shortcut – those don’t exist, or at least not without a ridiculous amount of research and study to uncover them. Instead, I do it because it helps me to focus better on the games at hand, and to prioritize the ridiculous amount of information that I will be faced with. If you don’t have some kind of a framework to build upon when you look at a wildly public game like these three will be then you are vulnerable to being led astray by the ‘experts’ and whatever topics they happen to be focused on these days. In the last two rounds, for example, it would have been pretty easy to discount Memphis because we heard endlessly how badly they shot fouls and how much that matters. As it turns out they shot very well from the line, and they would have won both games fairly handily even if they had been much, much worse.
For the first time in the 20 or so years that I have been filling out a bracket I have all four Final Four teams. I should be proud of that, but all it really means is that I am a chalk-eating weenie. I did the ultimate newbie thing – take the number one seeds and put them all the way through to the end – and it paid off. That makes me feel like a need to shower for a week or so. Don’t get me wrong – I’ll spend the money if my luck keeps holding. It just seems wrong that something so unimaginative and boring would be the right way to go.
Will the last five minutes of a college basketball game ever be interesting or tense again? That’s eight of the last nine which have been over well before they have been over. Tomorrow, hopefully, is another day.
1. Davidson can beat Kansas, and it wouldn’t even be a massive upset. Heck, if I had to rank the eight teams in order of likelihood to win based on the way they are playing Davidson wouldn’t be at the bottom despite their seed.
Continue reading “12 Quick Thoughts Heading Into Saturday’s Games”
The games on Thursday night weren’t entirely entertaining, and they weren’t too surprising, but they were educational. At first glance, three things pop into mind as I process what happened:
1. Xavier is for real – Xavier struggled in the second half, and they should have won their game against West Virginia easier than they did, but they proved that they certainly aren’t out of place in the Elite Eight – the school’s second berth since 2004. Their balance and depth is impressive, and their discipline is relentless. I know for certain that they don’t have an answer for Kevin Love, but I don’t know that the Bruins have an answer for some of what the Musketeers through at them, either. Western Kentucky succeeded in the second half with an up-tempo shooting fest and they will get all of that and more from the Musketeers. Xavier consistently makes the big play when they need it, and they will need several on Saturday. If I was forced then I would say that UCLA would probably win, but an upset would not be an overwhelming or impossible one.
Continue reading “Three Things We Learned on Thursday Night”
It is a heck of a line-up of games we have to look forward to tonight and tomorrow night. There are only a couple that have a real risk of being duds, and several that could come down to the last second. Here is my ranking of the games in order of my level of anticipation as a fan and a bettor:
As I sit here thinking about the tournament, and about the sports betting world in general, here are 10 questions that are bouncing through my mind:
1. Can Western Kentucky be remotely competitive against UCLA? – Their center is Jeremy Evans, a 6’9″ sophomore who weighs in at a whopping 190 pounds. Kevin Love is taller and 70 pounds heavier. I think I fear for Evans’ life.
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