2014 World Cup Round of 16: Brazil vs Chile Betting Picks

2014 World Cup – Round of 16
Brazil vs Chile

Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto – Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Saturday, June 28, 2014, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: ABC, Univision
Money Line: Chile +455 / Brazil -172 / Draw +328
Point Line: Brazil -1 -109 / Chile +1 -111
Total: over 2.5 -135 / under 2.5 +115
Odds to Advance to Quarters: Brazil -419 / Chile +339
All odds courtesy of Bookmaker

Brazil is favored to beat South American rival Chile in the first game of the Round of 16 Saturday in Belo Horizonte.
Brazil is favored to beat South American rival Chile in the first game of the Round of 16 Saturday in Belo Horizonte.

South American rivals Brazil and Chile meet in the round of 16 for the second straight World Cup. Brazil crushed them 3-0 in 2010 in South Africa. Now four years later, they meet again this time in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. The winner of this match will play the winner of Colombia and Uruguay in the quarterfinals next week in an all CONMEBOL affair.

Brazil won Group A by beating Croatia 3-1, drawing Mexico 0-0 and beating Cameroon 4-1. Brazil and Mexico both had 7 points in the group and Brazil won on goal differential +5 to +3. Chile finished second in Group B with wins over Australia 3-1 and defending champion Spain 2-0. They lost to group winner the Netherlands 2-0 in the last group game. Chile was +2 in goals and the Netherlands was +7.

Brazil has dominated the series against Chile 48-7-13. Brazil has gone 10-0-2 in the last 12 games against Chile, and hasn’t lost to their rivals since a World Cup Qualifying game in 2000. Brazil is 3-0 against Chile in the World Cup, beating them in the semifinals in 1962, and the round of 16 in both 1998 and 2010. Brazil beat Chile 2-1 in a friendly in Toronto last November. Chile played Brazil to a 2-2 draw in this same stadium last April. Brazil has scored 2 goals or more in the last 9 matches against Chile. Chile has never beaten Brazil on Brazilian soil with only 6 draws in 26 matches.

Brazil is coached by Luiz Felipe Scolari. Brazil will use a 4-2-3-1 attack. Brazil forward Hulk is expected to return to the line-up after missing the alst matxhes with a muscle strain. Neymar Jr has four goals already in 3 World Cup games. The 22 year old is tied with Germany’s Thomas Muller and Argentina’s Lionel Messi for most goals in the world Cup. Oscar, Fred and Fernandinho have scored the only other goals for Brazil so far. Oscar also has 2 assists. Julio Cesar is a top flight keeper and has allowed just two goals in 3 matches.

Brazil has outscored opponents 7-2 so far in the World Cup. Brazil has only one goal on set pieces so far. Brazil has 48 shots including 27 on goal. Brazil has recorded 5 assists so far. They have been called for offsides 9 times in the tournament. Brazil has made 5 saves in the tournament. They have made 60 tackles winning 23 of them.  and 7 blocks. Brazil has completed 1,158 passes and the World Cup average is 868.

Chile is managed by Jorge Sampaoli. Chile will use a 3-4-1-2 formation. Chile midfielder Arturo Vidal and defender  Gary Medel  both missed training on Thursday but both are expected to play against Brazil.  Eduardo Vargas is the top goal scoring threat. Keeper Claudio Bravo has allowed three goals in three matches.

Chile is outscoring teams 5-3 in the World Cup, with no goals on set pieces. Chile has only 25 shots including 14 on goal. They have been called offsides 5 times. Chile has made 12 saves in the tournament. They have 35 tackles and have won 7 of them.  Chile has 4 blocks. Chile has completed 1,426 passes.

Brazil hasn’t lost a competitive match at home since 1975 and including friendlies hasn’t lost on home soil since 2002. I look for that trend to continue as this series has been dominated by Brazil. Chile has only beaten Brazil 7 times in 68 matches. Brazil simply has too much and wins 3-1.

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