2012 Women’s French Open Semifinals Betting Preview

2012 Women’s French Open Tennis Semifinals
Roland Garros – Paris, France
Playing Surface: Red Clay
Thursday, June 7, 2012, 8:00 am Eastern, TV: ESPN2
All odds courtesy of Bookmaker

Maria Sharapova is a heavy favorite to win her semifinal match against Petra Kvitova at the French Open.

Even though a lot of the top players were eliminated early, the semifinals of the French Open still feature 4 ranked players, including 3 of the top 6 players in the world. Samantha Stosur will take on Sara Errani in the first semifinal, followed by Petra Kvitova  vs Maria Sharapova. Stosur, Kvitova, and Sharapova all have major titles, but none has won on the clay of Roland Garros.

#6 Samantha Stosur (-215) vs #21 Sara Errani (+175)

Stosur is 28 and from Australia. She won the U.S. Open last year for her first major title. She made the semifinals in the French Open in 2009, and was the runner up here in 2010. Stosur is 27-11 this season. She doesn’t have a win this year but was the runner up to Victoria Azarenka at Doha, Qatar.

Stousur hasn’t dropped a set yet in 5 matches at the French Open. She has wins over Elena Baltacha, Irina Falconi, #27 Nadia Petrova, Sloane Stephens, and #15 Dominika Cibulkova to get to the semifinals. Stephens won 5 games in one set in the fourth round, but otherwise Stosur hasn’t allowed more than 4 games to anyone.

Errani is 25 from Italy. She is 29-10 this season with wins at Acapulco, Barcelona, and Budapest, all on clay. She made it to the quarterfinals at the Australian Open this year, the first time she had ever advanced that far in a grand slam event.

Errani has faced a much tougher road to the semifinals than Stosur. She has dropped two sets so far, and went to a tiebreaker in another. Errani has wins over Casey Dellacqua, Melanie Oudin, #13 Ana Ivanovic, #26 Svetlana Kuznetsova, and #10 Angelique Kerber in the quarterfinals. She dropped the first set to Dellacqua in the first round and to Ivanovic in the third round. Before her victory over Kerber, Errani had been 0-24 against top 10 players. Errani will also play for the women’s doubles title with her partner Roberta Vinci.

Stosur leads the series 5-0 against Errani. She has only dropped 1 set to Errani in those matches. They played this year in the round of 32 at Rome, the first time they had ever played on clay. Stosur won that match-up 6-3 7-5. This will be the second ever meeting in a grand slam event as they played in the third round of the U.S. Open in 2010.

Stosur is playing very well right now, and is arguably playing the best tennis of her career. Errani has 3 wins this season, all on clay, but I don’t think she can beat Stosur on clay. Stosur wins in straight sets.

#2 Maria Sharapova (-230) vs #4 Petra Kvitova (+190)

Sharapova is 25 from Russia, She is 29-5 this season with wins at Stuttgart and Rome, both on clay. She also has runner-ups this year at the Australian Open, Indian Wells, and Miami. Sharapova has one title each at the Australian, Wimbledon, and U.S. Opens. Sharapova hasn’t won a grand slam since the 2008 Australian Open but she has made the semis at 3 of the last 4 majors. She has never made it past the semifinals at Roland Garros, but made it to the semis last year for the second time.

Sharapova has dropped just one set in a tiebreaker in 5 matches so far. Sharapova has wins over Alexandra Cadantu, Ayumi Morita, #28 Shuai Peng, Klara Zakopalova, and #23 Kaia Kanepi in the quarters. Sharapova dropped a set to Zakopalova in the fourth round. No other player has won more than 3 games in a  set against Sharapova so far.

Kvitova is 22 from the Czech Republic. Kvitova is 17-7 this year with no titles. She hasn’t even made it past the semifinals of any event this year. Kvitova won Wimbledon last year, and made it to the semifinals at the Australian Open this year. Before this year, she had never made it past the fourth round at the French Open.

Kvitova hasn’t played one seeded player at the French until now. She has dropped two sets so far. Kvitova has wins over Ashleigh Barty, Ursula Radwanska, Nina Bratchikova, Vavara Lepchenko, and Yaroslava Shvedova in the quarters.

Sharapova leads the series 3-2 against Kvitova including both match-ups in 2012. Sharapova beat Kvitova in the Semifinals at the Australian Open and at Stuttgart on clay. The Stuttgart win was in straight sets 6-4 7-6 (7-3). Kvitova beat Sharapova in the final at Wimbledon last year.

If this match was on hard or grass courts, I would give Kvitova a better chance. As it is I don’t think she can beat Sharapova on clay. A Sharapova win would give her the #1 ranking in the world, and give her a chance for the career grand slam. I think Sharapova wins in 3 sets.




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