2012 Men’s French Open Tennis Semifinals Betting Preview

2012 Men’s French Open Tennis Semifinals
Roland Garros – Paris, France

Playing Surface: Red Clay
Friday, June 8, 2012, 11:00 am Eastern, TV: NBC
All odds courtesy of Bookmaker.

Rafael Nadal is a heavy favorite to beat David Ferrer in the semifinals at the French Open.

As expected, the world’s top 3 men’s players made it to the semifinals at the French Open. Number 1 Novak Djokovic, #2 Rafael Nadal, and #3 Roger Federer are joined by #6 David Ferrer in the semifinals at Roland Garros. Either Djokovic, Nadal, or Federer has won every grand slam event except one since 2004.

Here is a look at the two matches with odds courtesy of bookmaker.

#2 Rafael Nadal (-1300) vs #6 David Ferrer (+700)

Nadal has lost one match in 7 career starts at Roland Garros, with a record of 50-1. He has six French Open titles, a record he co-h0lds with Bjorn Borg in the Open era. Nadal has 10 Grand Slam titles overall. Nadal is 33-4 this season, with titles at Rome, Barcelona, and Monte Carlo, all on clay. He lost in the Australian Open Final to Djokovic.

Nadal hasn’t dropped a set so far in 5 matches. The 26 year old from Spain has wins over Simone Bolelli, Denis Istomin, Eduardo Schwank, #13 Juan Monaco, and #12 Nicolas Almagro in the quarterfinals. Almagro took him to a tiebreaker in the first set, but no one else has won more than 4 games in any set against Nadal at the French. Nadal will take on his countryman David Ferrer in the semifinals, the second straight Spaniard he will face after Almagro.

Ferrer is 30 years old. This is only the third time in his career he has ever made it to the semifinals of a grand slam event. Until this year he had never made it past the quarters in Paris. He is 33-7 this season with titles at Acapulco, Buenos Aires, and Auckland. The first two were on clay, and Auckland was on hard courts. He lost to Nadal in the finals at Barcelona.

Ferrer Has dropped one set so far in 5 matches at Roland Garros. He has wins over Lukas Lacko, Benoit Paire, #27 Mikhail Youzhny, #20 Marcel Granollers, and #4 Andy Murray. Murray was hobbled by a back injury and playing on his worst surface, but still took the second set off of Ferrer.

Nadal has dominated the series against Ferrer, winning 15 of 19 matches career matches against him. Nadal has won 11 of the previous 12 match-ups, including 4 in a row. The only win for Ferrer in that stretch came at the 2011 Australian Open in the quarterfinals. Ferrer has only one win against Nadal on clay, and that was way back in 2004 in their first ever meeting, when Nadal was 17 years old.

Nadal should continue his domination in this series. The only question is whether Ferrer will steal a set. I don’t see it happening. Nadal in straight sets.

#1 Novak Djokovic (-213) vs #3 Roger Federer (+173)

Djokovic is 30-5 this season with titles at Miami and the Australian Open. The 25 year old Serb has losses to Nadal in the finals at Rome and Monte Carlo. Djokovic has made it at least to the semifinals of the last 8 majors, including this one. He holds the titles at Wimbledon, and the US and Australian Opens right now. Djokovic is looking to complete both the career grand slam and what would be known as the “Djoker Slam” as he would hold all 4 at the same time, though not in the same year.

Djokovic had to survive two brutal 5 set matches in the fourth round against #22 Andreas Seppi in the fourth round and #5 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarters. He dropped the first two sets against Seppi. Djokovic not only had to battle the tough Tsonga, but the frenzied French crowd who were rooting hard for their countryman. Djokovic won the first set 6-1, before Tsonga won sets 2 and 3 by 7-5 scores. Djokovic won the fourth set in a tiebreaker, and breezed to a 6-1 win in the fifth set. Djokovic didn’t drop a set in his first three match-ups against Potito Starace, Blaz Kavcic, and Nicolas Devilder.

Federer is 31-4 this season with titles at Madrid, Indian Wells, Dubai and Rotterdam. Madrid was on clay, but the others were on hard courts. Federer has 16 major titles, but hasn’t won one since the 2010 Australian Open. He won here in 2009, for his only French title, when Nadal was knocked out in the fourth round. He was the runner up here last year to Nadal.

Federer won his first round match in straight sets against Tobias Kamke. Federer has lost at least one set in every other match this year at French. He also has wins over Adrian Unqur, Nicolas Mahut, David Goffin, and #9 Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarters. Del Potro won the first two sets, but Federer only lost 5 total games in the next three sets to complete the comeback.

Federer leads the overall series against Djokovic 14-11, but Djokovic has won 5 of the last meetings. The only win for Federer in that stretch came in the semifinals at the French Open last year. The loss snapped a 30+ match winning streak to start the season for Djokovic. Djokovic won the only meeting this year in the semis at Rome in straight sets.

I know Federer beat Djokovic here last year, but the legendary 30 year old from Switzerland has lost a step compared to his younger rivals, Nadal and Djokovic. It won’t be easy, but Djokovic wins a close 4 set match to set up a  showdown with Nadal for the title.




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