Here are all the current NFL football handicapping articles
from Maddux Sports.
Smart and successful handicappers know that you set yourself
up for a profitable season not by the handicapping you do
during the season but by the work you did in the off season
to get ready for the year. It takes a whole lot of preparation
and study to be ready to be a long term winner betting on
the NFL. The good news is that most bettors aren't willing
to do their homework, so if you put some time in during the
summer then you are going to give yourself an edge over the
masses. Since the public bets so heavily on the NFL it is
crucial that you gain an edge on them so you can spot and
exploit what little value there is in betting on the league.
Here are eight things you can do during the summer to get
ready for NFL success.
When it comes to handicapping games in the NFL the schedule
is more significant than many factors in terms of determining
winners and losers. Schedule analysis, when done poorly, can
force people to make a lot of poor decisions, though. The
single most important thing to remember when analyzing a schedule
is that there are no hard and fast rules. What might be a
horrific circumstance for one team might not bother another
at all. Effectively using schedule analysis as a handicapping
tool uses some sharp thought and the search for insights.
If something about the schedule is obvious then everyone is
going to figure it out and it won't give you any betting
advantage. You need to look deeper to get that edge. As you
are looking deeper here are four potential paths of thinking
that you might want to follow.
Betting on NFL season win totals is increasing in popularity
every season. Most long term prop bets aren't particularly
interesting to serious bettors because of the lack of value
and the amount of time that money has to be tied up. Both
things can be a problem here, too, but savvy bettors also
know that there is some attractive value that can be found
in these bets - especially if you can find spots where you
think a strong public opinion is inaccurate. If you aren't
careful, though, you can put yourself in a big hole before
the season even starts if you make a lot of bad win total
bets. To avoid making those costly mistakes here are five
things to keep in mind when considering these bets.
We are about to head into my least favorite time in North
American sports - the NFL preseason. I love the regular season,
and there is no better sport than football, but in my eyes
the preseason is just an extended, seemingly endless exercise
in stupidity. You rarely see teams playing at full strength
and full intensity for a whole game, you can never be sure
what you are going to see before the game starts, and you
can be reasonably certain that stars aren't going to
do more than they have to. I understand why the games need
to be played, but I hate that they are broadcast nationally,
and that fans have to pay full price to see the glorified
practices.
We talk a lot about how to profitably bet the NFL regular
season. Really, though, I don't think that that is specific
enough. The long regular season is really more like a continuous
series of short seasons. Each one is a little bit different,
and strong bettors need to adjust accordingly to best take
advantage of the opportunities for profit. The first of those
mini-seasons is, in my mind, made up of the first two games
of the year. That's before the teams have played any
meaningful games, so the general betting public doesn't
yet have a sense of how good a team really is and what they
are actually capable of. It's reasonably easy, then,
to be ahead of the public early in the season, and that's
a good way to find a profit. Here are five things to keep
in mind when you think about getting ready for those first
two games.
A lot of handicappers will tell you that if you want to make
money betting on the NFL you should look towards the totals.
There is nothing easy about handicapping the NFL, but there
is often more value to find in the totals than in the spreads
and moneylines. If you do want to make money on totals, though,
you need to make sure that you are making the best bets you
can. That means avoiding costly mistakes. Here are five things
to think about when you are betting NFL totals.
Read the full article on
NFL
Over Under Betting
When people are handicapping football games - something millions
of people will be doing every week for the next several months
- there are some factors that they generally pay too much
attention to, and others that don't get enough attention.
In a lot of cases people aren't getting the type of
information that they think they are getting - or they could
be getting it more effectively in another way. The media doesn't
help casual sports bettors look in the right direction, either,
because they tend to fixate on certain stats and types of
performances. Here's a look at four factors that get
too much credit in the handicapping of many casual bettors,
and four related factors that don't get enough credit.
Read the full article on
NFL
Betting Tips
Football is a complicated game, but when you boil it all
down handicapping it isn't all that difficult - all
you need to do is figure out whether an offense is going to
be able to score on a defense. The offense that can score
better is, in most cases, going to be the one that wins. Admittedly,
that is much easier to say than it is to do. There are some
solid ways to quickly get a sense of the offense's likelihood
of success, though. Here are five.
Read the full article on
Make
Money NFL Betting
Sunday nights and Monday nights during the NFL season are
tough times to be a football handicapper. That's when
the two most popular games of the week are played. These are
the games that are on national TV, and the games that everyone
watches and bets on. The media attention is highest for these
contests, and marquee matchups are the rule. When you are
looking to bet on these games successfully there are some
mistakes you don't want to make, and some things you
will want to be sure to do. Here are some of those dos and
don'ts.
Many bettors overlook the additional value that alternate
NFL betting lines offer. They stick with the regular point
spread, the money line, or the total. In this article we will
show you the benefits of looking at alternate lines when you
are searching for additional value. Alternate lines usually
offer four additional options: the alternate high, alternate
low, alternate extra high and alternate extra low. Pinnacle
gives an example on their website of what alternate lines
might look compared to a regular spread. They use the Bears
in their illustration.
While the majority of the betting public has their eyes on
the spreads, moneylines, and totals for the full NFL games,
there are far more options to consider when choosing how to
invest your money. One of those options is first half betting
on NFL games. For first half wagering, most major sportsbooks
offer the same kind of bets that you see for the whole game.
They offer a spread, a moneyline, and a total. Only in this
case, winners or losers are decided at halftime.
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First
Half NFL Betting
Second half betting in the NFL offers you a terrific way
of making the most out of your investments. There are several
benefits of betting on the second half of an NFL game and
we will explore them in this article. NFL halftimes are an
oddsmaker's nightmare. The bookies have 15 minutes to set
a spread, a moneyline and a total for the second half of a
game. With several games going into halftime at virtually
the same time, oddsmakers are more bound to make mistakes
than on straight lines.
Read the full article on
2nd
Half NFL Betting
Each year we see online sports books offering more and more
options for NFL player props. If books are offering more of
them then there is one thing you can be absolutely sure of
- they are very profitable. The more profitable a type of
bet is for the books, the less attractive it generally is
for sharp bettors. Still, there are some situations where
player props can actually make sense. Here are three situations
where you might want to look at these various bets, and three
times when you'll only want to bet them if you are a
sucker who hates money.
Read the full article on
NFL
Player Props Betting
Making money betting on the NFL is very difficult. It is
a very popular league to bet on - by far the most popular
in the U.S. - but it is certainly not the easiest. The betting
volume and the quality of the stats and information available
means that oddsmakers have become very good at setting tough
numbers, and value can be very hard to find. If you want to
make a long term profit betting on the league, then, you have
to be very sure to avoid every possible mistake you can. The
closer you can come to flawless handicapping, the better your
chances of making a nice profit. Here are four very common
mistakes that bettors make that cause big dents in their wallets.
Turnover differential - the difference between the number
of times a team turns the ball over, and the number of times
they recover a turnover from their opponents - is a very powerful
statistic for football handicappers. If it is used incorrectly,
though, it can lead to disaster.
Every year in the NFL there are a few teams that are lucky
enough to go through a stretch in which it seems like they
have forgotten how to lose. These teams on long winning streaks
can present a real challenge for handicappers. The public
loves a winner, so they will jump on the bandwagon of these
teams and make it very hard to find any value betting on them
as a result. When you are considering these teams, then, you
have to be really confident that they can keep winning before
you consider backing them. Here are five key questions to
ask when considering whether a team on a big winning streak
can continue their winning ways.
Read the full article on
Wagering
on NFL Games
Sometimes it seems like there are some teams in the NFL that
have forgotten how to win. They fall into long losing streaks,
and they look truly terrible doing it. When teams lose several
games in a row the public will assume that they will never
win again, and their betting action reflects that most times.
Smart bettors know, though, that anything can happen from
week to week, and that you can't assume anything. If
a team is likely to keep losing then you don't want
to bet on them to win for obvious reasons, but if they could
break through and end their streak then you can often find
a very nice price if you are willing to bet on them.
Read the full article on
Expert
NFL Picking Advice
If you can't successfully handicap divisional games
in the NFL then you aren't going to be a winning bettor.
It's as simple as that. Teams play each of their three
divisional foes twice each year - something that happens for
no other opponent. The games are particularly important because
the value of a win in a divisional game is so significant
in the standings. From a betting perspective the unique combination
of familiarity and contempt supercharges divisional games
and makes them different from most games that are played.
Here's a look at five factors to keep in mind when you
are trying to find a winner in a divisional contest.
In theory, the NFL Injury Reports should be one of the most
helpful tools there is. Every team in the league is mandated
by the league to report all of their injuries to the league
and the media. The reports are due on Friday for Sunday games,
and are updated on Saturday. In 2004 they were further improved
to include participation in practice, with those reports being
filed Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. The reports have been
in existence since 1947 when Commissioner Bert Bell implemented
them to eliminate an opportunity for inside information after
a game fixing scandal the previous season. Teams are watched
closely and fined if they don't file proper reports.
Sounds great, doesn't it? These reports should be useful
for handicappers in a number of ways.
The injury of a star player in the NFL is almost certain
to cause panic. You would get less reaction yelling fire in
a room full of sports bettors than you would if you yelled
out that Peyton Manning was out for 3-6 weeks. Sometimes injuries
are a big deal that cripple the hopes and dreams of a team,
but not nearly as often as the betting public will assume
that they will. When you are thinking about injuries and the
impact they might have on a particular game they are interested
in here are six things to keep in mind.
Read the full article on
NFL
Player Injury Value
Handicapping bye weeks in the NFL is a real challenge for
a lot of bettors. Ever since the NFL instituted the bye to
wring an extra week of rights fees from the TV networks bettors
have had to figure out what impact a week of rest is going
to have on a team. The problem is that the bye can affect
each team differently depending on their circumstances, so
it can be dangerous making general assumptions about bye weeks
when betting. Instead, you need to look for different situations
that could provide opportunities for value. Here are seven
types of situations that can provide good betting opportunities.
Read the full article on
NFL
Bye Week Betting
We're now into the second half of the NFL season. In
a lot of ways the league only gets more and more exciting
as it gets closer to the postseason. For handicappers, though,
the midpoint of the season signals a subtle shift in the league
that requires a shift in thinking to maximize your profit.
There are several ways that the second half differs from the
first half. Here are four.
With Thanksgiving coming up and the NFL playing Thursday
games weekly now it is a very good time to be thinking about
short weeks and the impact for handicappers. A lot is made
about the challenges teams face when getting ready for games
with less preparation time than normal. Here's a look
at seven factors to consider when you are thinking about the
impact and how to deal with it.
Read the full article on
NFL
Gambling Tips
There are few things more frustrating to NFL handicappers
than seeing a heavy favorite who was a logical choice lose
a game. Often times those losses come out of nowhere, and
it can be hard to understand what happened. On top of the
frustration of a losing bet these situations can cause real
headaches because you have to figure out what to do with the
team the next time they play. Was the upset a sign of bigger
problems, or will it make them angry, focused, and determined
to win? It's not always easy to determine which will
be the case, but here are six questions you can consider to
help you figure it out.
There is no better feeling when betting on the NFL than cashing
a ticket on an underdog that pulls off a big upset. You feel
like you can see the future and that you are, at that moment
at least, smarter than everyone else. Any upset win by a big
underdog brings on a serious headache the next week, though
- you have to figure out how to deal with that team when they
hit the field again. Are they a good team that was just overlooked,
or are they a lousy team that got lucky once? Here are five
questions you can ask that will help you figure out how to
deal with an underdog after an upset.
It's winter, and in a lot of places that means really,
really lousy weather. Handicappers need to be fully aware
of the weather and the impact it can have on the outcome of
NFL games. Cold weather and snow cause bettors to act in some
strange ways, and some of those ways don't make a lot
of sense. Here are seven things to keep in mind when you consider
the weather in your NFL handicapping.
One of the many challenges of handicapping the NFL is trying
to figure out how to handicap teams that have no playoff future
left to play for. Once teams have been eliminated from postseason
consideration it can be hard to assess what their effort level
is going to be in their remaining games. With each passing
week in the season there are more teams that know they aren't
going anywhere other than golfing once the regular season
ends, so the ability to assess how those teams might perform
becomes more and more important. There are five simple questions
you can ask to determine what a team will be able to offer
in these games and if they can be trusted.
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NFL
Picks ATS Tips
We hoped enjoyed these articles, more sports betting works can
be found on our blog.
We also have a specific focus on the betting
side as well as a section strictly on the NFL
playoffs.
