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NFL Handicapping Articles

Here are all the current NFL football handicapping articles from Maddux Sports.

What Sharp NFL Handicappers Do In the Off season

Smart and successful handicappers know that you set yourself up for a profitable season not by the handicapping you do during the season but by the work you did in the off season to get ready for the year. It takes a whole lot of preparation and study to be ready to be a long term winner betting on the NFL. The good news is that most bettors aren't willing to do their homework, so if you put some time in during the summer then you are going to give yourself an edge over the masses. Since the public bets so heavily on the NFL it is crucial that ...

Using Schedule Analysis To Find NFL Point Spread Winners

When it comes to handicapping games in the NFL the schedule is more significant than many factors in terms of determining winners and losers. Schedule analysis, when done poorly, can force people to make a lot of poor decisions, though. The single most important thing to remember when analyzing a schedule is that there are no hard and fast rules. What might be a horrific circumstance for one team might not bother another at all. Effectively using schedule analysis as a handicapping tool uses some sharp thought and the search for insights. If s ...

Tips For Betting NFL Regular Season Win Totals

Betting on NFL season win totals is increasing in popularity every season. Most long term prop bets aren't particularly interesting to serious bettors because of the lack of value and the amount of time that money has to be tied up. Both things can be a problem here, too, but savvy bettors also know that there is some attractive value that can be found in these bets - especially if you can find spots where you think a strong public opinion is inaccurate. If you aren't careful, though, you can put yourself in a big hole before the season even s ...

Tips For Handicapping NFL Preseason Games

We are about to head into my least favorite time in North American sports - the NFL preseason. I love the regular season, and there is no better sport than football, but in my eyes the preseason is just an extended, seemingly endless exercise in stupidity. You rarely see teams playing at full strength and full intensity for a whole game, you can never be sure what you are going to see before the game starts, and you can be reasonably certain that stars aren't going to do more than they have to. I understand why the games need to be played, but ...

How To Handicap the First 2 Weeks of the NFL Season

We talk a lot about how to profitably bet the NFL regular season. Really, though, I don't think that that is specific enough. The long regular season is really more like a continuous series of short seasons. Each one is a little bit different, and strong bettors need to adjust accordingly to best take advantage of the opportunities for profit. The first of those mini-seasons is, in my mind, made up of the first two games of the year. That's before the teams have played any meaningful games, so the general betting public doesn't yet have a sens ...

Tips For Betting NFL Totals

A lot of handicappers will tell you that if you want to make money betting on the NFL you should look towards the totals. There is nothing easy about handicapping the NFL, but there is often more value to find in the totals than in the spreads and moneylines. If you do want to make money on totals, though, you need to make sure that you are making the best bets you can. That means avoiding costly mistakes. Here are five things to think about when you are betting NFL totals. ...

Overrated and Underrated NFL Betting Factors

When people are handicapping football games - something millions of people will be doing every week for the next several months - there are some factors that they generally pay too much attention to, and others that don't get enough attention. In a lot of cases people aren't getting the type of information that they think they are getting - or they could be getting it more effectively in another way. The media doesn't help casual sports bettors look in the right direction, either, because they tend to fixate on certain stats and types of perfo ...

Accessing A Teams Offense To Find Point Spread Winners

Football is a complicated game, but when you boil it all down handicapping it isn't all that difficult - all you need to do is figure out whether an offense is going to be able to score on a defense. The offense that can score better is, in most cases, going to be the one that wins. Admittedly, that is much easier to say than it is to do. There are some solid ways to quickly get a sense of the offense's likelihood of success, though. Here are five. ...

TV Game Handicapping Tips For Sunday & Monday Night Football

Sunday nights and Monday nights during the NFL season are tough times to be a football handicapper. That's when the two most popular games of the week are played. These are the games that are on national TV, and the games that everyone watches and bets on. The media attention is highest for these contests, and marquee matchups are the rule. When you are looking to bet on these games successfully there are some mistakes you don't want to make, and some things you will want to be sure to do. Here are some of those dos and don'ts. ...

Using NFL Alternate Betting Lines To Your Advantage

Many bettors overlook the additional value that alternate NFL betting lines offer. They stick with the regular point spread, the money line, or the total. In this article we will show you the benefits of looking at alternate lines when you are searching for additional value. Alternate lines usually offer four additional options: the alternate high, alternate low, alternate extra high and alternate extra low. Pinnacle gives an example on their website of what alternate lines might look compared to a regular spread. They use the Bears in their i ...

How NFL First Half Betting Works With Tips To Win

While the majority of the betting public has their eyes on the spreads, moneylines, and totals for the full NFL games, there are far more options to consider when choosing how to invest your money. One of those options is first half betting on NFL games. For first half wagering, most major sportsbooks offer the same kind of bets that you see for the whole game. They offer a spread, a moneyline, and a total. Only in this case, winners or losers are decided at halftime. ...

How 2nd Half NFL Betting Works And How Sharp Gamblers Do It

Second half betting in the NFL offers you a terrific way of making the most out of your investments. There are several benefits of betting on the second half of an NFL game and we will explore them in this article. NFL halftimes are an oddsmaker's nightmare. The bookies have 15 minutes to set a spread, a moneyline and a total for the second half of a game. With several games going into halftime at virtually the same time, oddsmakers are more bound to make mistakes than on straight lines. ...

When To Bet NFL Player Props And When Not To

Each year we see online sports books offering more and more options for NFL player props. If books are offering more of them then there is one thing you can be absolutely sure of - they are very profitable. The more profitable a type of bet is for the books, the less attractive it generally is for sharp bettors. Still, there are some situations where player props can actually make sense. Here are three situations where you might want to look at these various bets, and three times when you'll only want to bet them if you are a sucker who hates ...

Common Mistakes NFL Handicappers Make

Making money betting on the NFL is very difficult. It is a very popular league to bet on - by far the most popular in the U.S. - but it is certainly not the easiest. The betting volume and the quality of the stats and information available means that oddsmakers have become very good at setting tough numbers, and value can be very hard to find. If you want to make a long term profit betting on the league, then, you have to be very sure to avoid every possible mistake you can. The closer you can come to flawless handicapping, the better your cha ...

Picking NFL Games Using Turnover Differential

Turnover differential - the difference between the number of times a team turns the ball over, and the number of times they recover a turnover from their opponents - is a very powerful statistic for football handicappers. If it is used incorrectly, though, it can lead to disaster. ...

Wagering on NFL Games Involving Teams With Long Winning Streaks

Every year in the NFL there are a few teams that are lucky enough to go through a stretch in which it seems like they have forgotten how to lose. These teams on long winning streaks can present a real challenge for handicappers. The public loves a winner, so they will jump on the bandwagon of these teams and make it very hard to find any value betting on them as a result. When you are considering these teams, then, you have to be really confident that they can keep winning before you consider backing them. Here are five key questions to ask wh ...

Handicapping NFL Teams On Long Losing Streaks

Sometimes it seems like there are some teams in the NFL that have forgotten how to win. They fall into long losing streaks, and they look truly terrible doing it. When teams lose several games in a row the public will assume that they will never win again, and their betting action reflects that most times. Smart bettors know, though, that anything can happen from week to week, and that you can't assume anything. If a team is likely to keep losing then you don't want to bet on them to win for obvious reasons, but if they could break through and ...

How Pro Bettors Handicap NFL Divisional Games

If you can't successfully handicap divisional games in the NFL then you aren't going to be a winning bettor. It's as simple as that. Teams play each of their three divisional foes twice each year - something that happens for no other opponent. The games are particularly important because the value of a win in a divisional game is so significant in the standings. From a betting perspective the unique combination of familiarity and contempt supercharges divisional games and makes them different from most games that are played. Here's a look at f ...

How NFL Injury Reports Can Help And Hurt Handicappers

In theory, the NFL Injury Reports should be one of the most helpful tools there is. Every team in the league is mandated by the league to report all of their injuries to the league and the media. The reports are due on Friday for Sunday games, and are updated on Saturday. In 2004 they were further improved to include participation in practice, with those reports being filed Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. The reports have been in existence since 1947 when Commissioner Bert Bell implemented them to eliminate an opportunity for inside informati ...

Accessing the Betting Value Of NFL Star Player Injuries

The injury of a star player in the NFL is almost certain to cause panic. You would get less reaction yelling fire in a room full of sports bettors than you would if you yelled out that Peyton Manning was out for 3-6 weeks. Sometimes injuries are a big deal that cripple the hopes and dreams of a team, but not nearly as often as the betting public will assume that they will. When you are thinking about injuries and the impact they might have on a particular game they are interested in here are six things to keep in mind. ...

Good Spots To Bet NFL Teams Off Their Bye Week

Handicapping bye weeks in the NFL is a real challenge for a lot of bettors. Ever since the NFL instituted the bye to wring an extra week of rights fees from the TV networks bettors have had to figure out what impact a week of rest is going to have on a team. The problem is that the bye can affect each team differently depending on their circumstances, so it can be dangerous making general assumptions about bye weeks when betting. Instead, you need to look for different situations that could provide opportunities for value. Here are seven types ...

Tips For Handicapping the 2nd Half of the NFL Season

We're now into the second half of the NFL season. In a lot of ways the league only gets more and more exciting as it gets closer to the postseason. For handicappers, though, the midpoint of the season signals a subtle shift in the league that requires a shift in thinking to maximize your profit. There are several ways that the second half differs from the first half. Here are four. ...

Handicapping NFL Teams On Short Rest

With Thanksgiving coming up and the NFL playing Thursday games weekly now it is a very good time to be thinking about short weeks and the impact for handicappers. A lot is made about the challenges teams face when getting ready for games with less preparation time than normal. Here's a look at seven factors to consider when you are thinking about the impact and how to deal with it. ...

Handicapping NFL Teams Off Upset Loss As A Favorite

There are few things more frustrating to NFL handicappers than seeing a heavy favorite who was a logical choice lose a game. Often times those losses come out of nowhere, and it can be hard to understand what happened. On top of the frustration of a losing bet these situations can cause real headaches because you have to figure out what to do with the team the next time they play. Was the upset a sign of bigger problems, or will it make them angry, focused, and determined to win? It's not always easy to determine which will be the case, but he ...

Handicapping NFL Teams Off Straight Up Underdog Win

There is no better feeling when betting on the NFL than cashing a ticket on an underdog that pulls off a big upset. You feel like you can see the future and that you are, at that moment at least, smarter than everyone else. Any upset win by a big underdog brings on a serious headache the next week, though - you have to figure out how to deal with that team when they hit the field again. Are they a good team that was just overlooked, or are they a lousy team that got lucky once? Here are five questions you can ask that will help you figure out ...

Using NFL Weather Reports To Make Money Betting Football

It's winter, and in a lot of places that means really, really lousy weather. Handicappers need to be fully aware of the weather and the impact it can have on the outcome of NFL games. Cold weather and snow cause bettors to act in some strange ways, and some of those ways don't make a lot of sense. Here are seven things to keep in mind when you consider the weather in your NFL handicapping. ...

Making Picks on Games Involving Teams Eliminated From the Playoffs

One of the many challenges of handicapping the NFL is trying to figure out how to handicap teams that have no playoff future left to play for. Once teams have been eliminated from postseason consideration it can be hard to assess what their effort level is going to be in their remaining games. With each passing week in the season there are more teams that know they aren't going anywhere other than golfing once the regular season ends, so the ability to assess how those teams might perform becomes more and more important. There are five simple ...

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