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NBA Betting Articles

Maddux Sports Betting Library > NBA Betting Category

Here is a collection of articles to learn the basics and advanced strategies of NBA betting. We can help you learn about preseason basketball games or late season superstar troubles and how you can take advantage of it when you are betting on these NBA games. You can understand the science and strategy that is used to exploit each different NBA game and how to avoid common betting pitfalls.

Handicapping NBA Elite Team Matchups, Odds and Making Picks

One of the big challenges with NBA handicapping is trying to find a winner in a game with a small point spread when both NBA teams are elite and well matched. With NBA basketball odds, It’s easy to get a sense of how a game will turn out when there is a big difference in skill, motivation or health, but you really have to have your handicapping pencil sharpened when you are trying to pick the winner between good teams. Here […]

Early Spotting of Underrated NBA Teams

Early in the NBA season one of the best ways for smart handicappers to cash in is to have a sense of which teams are underrated by the general public. There will always be a few teams that don’t get nearly the respect they deserve. The odds from bookmakers for those teams in their early games will be far more generous than they should be as a result – especially if those teams open up against strong public teams. It’s […]

Betting On NBA Teams With Unhappy Superstar

It has become an all-too familiar story in the NBA – superstar players who have grown unhappy with their situation and demand a trade in the middle of the season. Carmelo Anthony, Deron Williams, Dwight Howard – the list of all-stars that have held their teams ransom is long and impressive. These situations can get ugly, and they never seem to resolve themselves quickly and painlessly. That means that NBA handicappers need to think about the impact of the standoffs […]

Evaluating NBA Teams with Young Point Guards

The hardest position to play well in the NBA is point guard. They have to command the play, set the tone, avoid mistakes, and make their team work. It used to be that point guard was a position that young players had been able to ease into. Recently, though, it has become more and more common to see a NBA rookie start, or at least play significant minutes, right out of the gate. For bettors this creates a challenge. Sometimes […]

Handicapping NBA Teams With 3 Games in 3 Nights

It’s not particularly common in the NBA, but teams will occasionally be subjected to the grueling challenge of playing three games on three consecutive nights. It’s an incredibly tough challenge for NBA players – especially because at least one of the games – and often more – is typically played on the road. If you were to ask a group of casual NBA bettors how teams would perform in the third of these games I suspect most would guess that […]

Spotting Troubled NBA Teams Headed to Playoffs

Every year in the NBA there is at least one team that looks good during the regular season that just doesn’t perform once the postseason starts. Once they are eliminated you can often look back and see the signs that pointed to what happened. If a sports bettor could spot those signs before the postseason starts, though, then they could really be in position to capitalize – especially if the public really likes the pro basketball team in trouble. Here […]

Assess Impact of NBA Player After Not Being Traded

Every time a trade deadline passes in a sport that trades a lot of players around, such as the NBA, I’m obviously interested to see what players are traded and what impact that will have on their new teams. As an expert sports handicapper, though, I’m almost as interested in the players that don’t get moved and the deals that don’t get made. Every year the intensity of trade deadline coverage increases online and on TV. That means that more […]

Checking Out NBA Player Prop Betting

NBA player prop betting is getting more and more popular. There are several different types of player props that are available to bet depending on the book you use. While expert NBA bettors know that each type of bet obviously needs to be looked at slightly differently there is, at the core, similarities between all player prop bets. That means that there are some things that are important to consider regardless of the specific type of sports bet you are […]

NBA Betting Adjustments – Post All Star Break

Winning sports bettors know that wagering on the NBA changes in subtle but significant ways after the all-star break each season. You still have to do the same things you have done all year – consider the odds, pick the winners and find the value – but what goes into determining where that value is can be somewhat different. Here are six ways that betting on the NBA can change after the all-star break: Trade deadline – The NBA trade […]

Avoiding NBA Preseason Overreaction

The NBA betting public is better at one thing than all others – overreacting to situations. They will regularly assume the worst about situations, and have an incredible ability to make mountains out of molehills. The NBA preseason isn’t typically taken as seriously by teams as the regular season, so there are all sorts of things that the public and inexperienced sports bettors can overreact to. Here are five things in the NBA preseason that can seem to be a […]

Lookout for NBA Preseason Warning Signs

The preseason in most major sports isn’t particularly illuminating, and the NBA is no exception. There are some things that smart NBA sports handicappers can learn from watching the preseason, though. That can be very helpful when the regular season starts and the games really matter – to the teams and to your wagering bankroll. Here are five warning signs in NBA preseason play that a team might not be ready to perform up to expectations when the regular season […]

Finding Short Term Value Right After NBA Trades

NBA bettors spend a lot of time looking at the long term impact of trades in the league. It’s important, though, to consider what the short term impact of trades are on professional teams. I’m talking about the first game or two played on the hardwood right after a deal is made. The trade is new, and the players and teams have to adjust to what has happened. Here are seven factors to consider when looking for short term value […]

Signs of NBA Teams Declining Down the Stretch

Every year in the NBA there are a few things that we can be sure to see. One of those is that there will be several teams that play worse – often significantly worse – after the NBA All-Star break than they did before the break. If sports bettors can spot teams that are likely to perform much worse late in the season then they have been playing then they can make nice money when they find opportunistic odds and […]

Dealing with NBA Teams Surprisingly Fast Starts

Every year in the NBA there are a couple of teams that get off to a surprising start. On paper they don’t look like much, but for the first few weeks of the basketball season they seem to have forgotten how to lose. That can create a real headache for NBA sports bettors. Is the team going to keep winning, or are they going to crash back to earth? Are they better than everyone thought, or are they just getting […]

Handling NBA Teams with Surprisingly Slow Starts

If you have bet the NBA for a while, or even just followed it as a fan, then this has certainly happened to you – you have had very high hopes and expectations for a team heading into the season but they come out of the gate totally flat. Their best players, their top-shooting guard, big-bodied center, or top assist man, have not played like stars; they have lost games that they should have won, and they certainly don’t find […]

Estimating Betting Impact for Loss of a NBA Star

When it comes to superstars in the NBA there is no such thing as loyalty. If LeBron James can leave Cleveland then it’s unreasonable to assume that any star will stick with one team for their entire career. It does happen, but movement – either through free agency or trades – has just become a fact of life in this superstar driven league these days. When a superstar does change teams it can have a huge impact both on the […]

Determining If New NBA Coach Will Help

There are few jobs in the world less secure than head coach of an NBA team. Teams change coaches seemingly on a whim, so it is very common to see several professional basketball teams make a coaching change during each season. Often times a team will experience a bump in play – and resulting wins – after they make their change. Most times these bumps in play don’t last long, but occasionally they do. If NBA sports bettors can have […]

Figuring Out How New NBA Coaches Will Perform

Being a coach in the NBA is not a great job to have if you value job security. There is a whole lot of turnover every year, and coaches often don’t last in a job for very long if they don’t get immediate results. When a new basketball coach starts the season in the NBA handicappers need to quickly get a sense of how effective they should be in their first few games of the year. The betting public is […]

Gaining Insights When NBA Teams Don’t Trade

The media and fans love to talk about trades in the NBA. It’s a constant source of entertainment and endless speculation. The problem is, though, that because of the salary cap restrictions trades aren’t nearly as common as people think they are. That means that every year at the NBA trade deadline there are players who were heavily rumored to be on the move that don’t end up being traded. For astute sports bettors the game or two right after […]

Finding Value When NBA Elite Teams Are Losing

Every year in the NBA we see elite teams go into a slump later on in the season. These are teams that have been playing very well, are certainly going to the playoffs, and are a threat to win it all once they get there. For some reason, though, they hit a stretch of games where it almost seems as if they have forgotten how to win. They can’t rebound, hit foul shots or swipe rebounds. Most times the streak […]

Subtle Betting Differences for NBA Holiday Games

When you think of Christmas day what do you think of? For me it’s trees, presents, family, turkey, and professional basketball. The NBA owns Christmas day, They are often the only game in town, and some of the  best and most eagerly anticipated matchups of the year are scheduled for the big day. It’s brilliant marketing for the league, and a brilliant addition to  great day. Handicapping the Christmas day games and the other holiday games that the NBA plays […]

Properly Understanding NBA Home Court Advantage

Home court advantage is particularly significant in the NBA. From year to year home teams win about 60 percent of games that are played, so there is undeniably a boost to be had from playing on the home hardwood. The advantage is almost universal as well – there was only one team in the 2010-11 regular season that won more games on the road than at home. For handicappers the home court advantage is very important to consider. It’s also […]

Adjusting for In-Season NBA Free Agents

Each year in the NBA it seems like we are seeing more and more players signed as free agents during the regular season. There are a number of ways a professional basketball player can become a free agent in the middle of a season – if they have been playing in another country or as a free agent in the D-League, if they were free agents before the season but weren’t signed or were injured, or if they have been […]

Picking Preseason NBA Title Contenders

When the NBA season is about to get underway the attention of bettors inevitably is drawn towards the NBA Championship futures odds. For astute bettors these can be a great way to find some nice profit that can fatten the bankroll substantially. They are also a really easy way to make terrible bets that tie up your money without offering any chance of a value-filled profit. The trick, obviously, is to find the right bets and avoid the wrong ones. […]

Understanding Why Big NBA Favorites Can Letdown

Big favorites in the NBA are far from uncommon. There is a massive gap between the best teams in the league and those in the cellar, so double digit point spreads in the NBA are far from uncommon. Needless to say, though, the favorites don’t always cover the spread, and they don’t even win these seemingly lopsided games all the time. Sometimes a big favorite just isn’t ready to put forward a complete effort on the court, and their inferior […]

Handling NBA Games with Big Point Spreads

NBA bettors are regularly faced with massive point spreads in games when a heavy favorites plays a seemingly outmatched team. A point spread that big makes the expected winner clear, but it can be a real challenge to decide if the favorite is worth being so heavily favored. When a team is a heavy favorite it can be easy to believe that they are all but unbeatable and not look beyond that. Sometimes heavy favorites don’t win games, though, and […]

Indicators to Find Consistency in NBA Play

Consistency is the best friend of NBA sports bettors. When a NBA team consistently plays in the same style and with the same effort then it can be relatively easy to bet on them because you know what you can expect from them. When a professional basketball team lacks consistency, though, then you are forced to guess what type of effort the team is likely to show before you can determine how that expected effort stacks up against the opponent. […]

Judging NBA Teams After Big Overhauls

The pressure to win in the NBA is intense, so it is not at all uncommon to see teams – even serious contenders – significantly overhaul their team from the end of one season to the beginning of the next. Teams will frequently go into a season with more than half of their starters being new to the team. Because trades are so difficult to make in the NBA and frequently involve a lot of players to balance contracts changes […]

How to Assess NBA Playoff Races

Each year in the NBA there always seems to be an intense race for the last couple of playoff spots in each conference. Sometimes the fight is among very good teams, while other times it’s just lousy teams moving towards an inevitable, quick loss in the first round of the playoffs. Either way, these races are of interest to basketball handicappers. When teams are fighting for a playoff spot they will face more pressure than they have faced up to […]

Handicapping NBA Teams Playing On Back to Back Nights

Several times each year teams in the NBA are forced to play two games on consecutive nights. That situation can be particularly challenging for teams – they are typically played on the road, so teams face tough travel on a short schedule between challenging games. It rarely brings out the best in basketball teams and players, and it can really make some teams look awful. For sports bettors these games can create a headache. You can’t simply assume that the […]

Predict NBA Teams Being Better ATS Than Record

As a NBA bettor there are few things more thrilling to find than a team that is playing much better than their record indicates. That often means that the team has a record against the spread (ATS) that is significantly better than their record. The general betting public is driven by two big things – the record of NBA teams and the media attention those teams are getting. When a team doesn’t have a great record, then, they are not […]

How to Analyze Big NBA Wins

In the NBA there are a few different tiers of teams each season. There are those teams that just aren’t very good. They aren’t going to make the playoffs, or if they do they won’t be above .500 and they won’t be particularly competitive. There are teams that are pretty good. They’ll win more games than they lose, and they will be fun to watch, but they aren’t likely to win the NBA Championship unless something extreme happens. Then there […]

Betting Implications for ESPN & TNT NBA Games

There are two kinds of NBA games – those that are nationally televised, and those that aren’t. The ones that are on TV – like on ESPN or TNT –  often feature more popular teams playing more interesting matchups. Combine that with the added attention the media gives a televised game and you have a game that is potentially quite different for sports handicappers to deal with than a normal one. Here are five ways in which nationally televised games […]

What To Look For When Good NBA Teams Struggle

Every year in the NBA there seems to be a small handful of good teams that disappoint early in the season. They enter the year with high expectations – to make the playoffs in style and make some noise when they get there. After a significant number of games have passed, though, the team is not looking anything like they are expected to. They are losing games they should win, and playing unlike they should be playing. Sometimes NBA teams […]

Exploiting Betting Public Love Affair with Aging NBA Stars

Public NBA bettors love superstars, so they will make their betting decisions based largely on the reputations of the superstars on the court. Unless there is a significant reason to do so the public is very slow to adjust those reputations to reflect current reality. That means that if a superstar is slowing fading due to age the public isn’t likely to respond to that fading as quickly as they should. They could then be making betting decisions based more […]

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