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MLB Baseball Betting Articles

Tips For Betting on Terrible Baseball Teams

It doesn’t take long in a baseball season – typically just a month or less – for it to become very clear that there are a few teams that just aren’t going to be competitive. They get off to a poor start, and it seems all but impossible that they are going to be able to turn things around. They don’t have the arms or the bats to match up with other teams. They just aren’t any good. Unfortunately for […]

Quarter Season Analysis Is Important

When the baseball season passes the quarter pole – 40 games played – it is an important milestone for sports bettors. By that time in May we are starting to get a better sense of what we are really dealing with in the season. Hot, fluky starts have cooled off, teams that started off poorly may have turned things around, and the sample size of outings for pitchers and hitters is big enough that we can start to trust trends that […]

Misleading Stats Baseball Bettors Get Distracted By

The ability to quickly and accurately assess what statistics tell us about ball players and teams is crucial to success in baseball handicapping. Unfortunately, it’s not something that most casual MLB bettors understand or do effectively. With pitchers, quickly being able to assess their stats and what they mean is particularly important. There are a lot of statistics that casual baseball bettors misunderstand. There are some that are given too much credit, and others that are simple and effective but don’t get […]

Home Run Derby Betting Tips

I love Major League Baseball’s Home Run Derby. It’s a great spectacle, and a stunning display of just how good these hitters can be. It’s also a pretty good for betting opportunities – or at least it can be depending upon the ball field. When you are looking to cash in betting on the Home Run Derby here are six factors for baseball handicappers to keep in mind: Does the park have a bias? – The location can have a big impact on which hitters […]

Handicapping Teams in Very Weak Divisions

Each year in baseball there seems to be one or two divisions that are particularly weak. The leading team is barely above .500, the competition is limp, and some of the teams in the division are just plain bad. For baseball bettors these weak conferences can be a particular issue. They can provide real opportunities for MLB bettors, but only for those who are really aware of what the weakness means and how best to exploit it. Here are four issues that baseball […]

Handicapping MLB Teams Off Unexpected Hot Start

By the middle of May in baseball we often have a division leader or two that is totally unexpected. I’m not talking about a MLB team that was a potential contender that has started strong. I mean a ball team that was expected to be plain lousy that has far exceeded expectations. They likely have a roster that doesn’t begin to stack up to the best in their division, yet they just keep winning. For bettors those teams provide a real […]

Handicapping 5th Starters

When I am handicapping Major League Baseball, the fifth starters in rotations almost always give me headaches. That’s not the spot where teams typically put their stars. That means that performances can be wildly inconsistent, and in turn means that MLB teams will frequently make changes in who they use and how they use them. When deciding on your baseball picks, you have to deal with fifth starters in different ways than you would other pitchers. Here are five factors to […]

Betting on Teams After Extra Inning Marathon

Every so often in baseball we see a truly crazy game that seems like it never wants to end. It can go into 15 innings or more and take hours to complete. If the ball game was a night game then it can be really, really late by the time it ends. It can lead to a particularly interesting handicapping puzzle when the same teams that met in a marathon have to play again the next day. A lot of […]

Betting Impact of Rivalries

The media loves rivalries in baseball. That means that the betting public likes them, too. the problem is, though, that both parties give a lot of rivalries far too much credit. Sure, there are some rivalries that are essentially blood feuds – hatred so intense that they have a direct and significant impact on the outcome of games. For each one like that, though, there are several that aren’t nearly as significant as they seem, and which really don’t impact […]

April To May Important Shifts For Baseball Handicappers

For baseball bettors April is a time of getting comfortable – determining which teams are good and which aren’t, which players are poised to break out and which will struggle, and which managers are going to perform well. When May comes around bettors start to get a better sense of what is happening, and what is likely to happen. Here’s a look at five big changes that happen for baseball bettors when May comes: Sample size is big enough to […]

The Down and Dirty on MLB Betting

If you’re going to bet on professional baseball and have not done so before, you’ll need to understand exactly how the three standard bets work. MLB offers wagering opportunities through the runline, moneyline and over/under.  Baseball bets are similar to standard NFL bets, but different enough to deserve some special attention. The moneyline bet and runline bet both focus on picking which team will win a specific game. A typical moneyline bet may have San Francisco at -126 and Pittsburgh […]

The Value of the MLB Runline

Is there value in the MLB runline? Would you simply be better off playing the moneyline? Opinions vary concerning whether you should play the runline or moneyline. There are times when the runline is better and other times you’d just assume take the moneyline. The difference works in this manner. Let’s say that the New York Yankees are playing the Chicago White Sox. Who’s probably going to be listed as the favorite on the moneyline? It’s the Yankees. You can […]

Handicapping Rookie Pitcher Hype

Every year in baseball there are a couple of rookie pitchers who absolutely explode onto the scene. They may or may not have been highly heralded before the season starts, but by June they have piled up the wins, scorched the radar guns, and garnered miles and miles of headlines. Sometimes these hot rookies turn into hot aces. Other times, though, their stars have burnt out by the time August or September rolls around. If you can spot the MLB […]

Betting Adjustments for Baseball’s Spring Training

Spring training is an interesting time for baseball bettors. Baseball takes their preseason much more seriously than other sports, so it’s much more compelling than other preseasons. That could make it tempting for people to bet on it, then. The problem, though, is that betting on spring training is very different than betting on the regular season. As a baseball handicapper, if you try to bet in March the same way you do in August you’ll probably find yourself with […]

Mistakes When Evaluating Starting Pitchers

When it comes to handicapping baseball there is nothing more important than evaluating starting pitchers. It’s the pitchers that make the difference between good games for a team and bad ones. No other single player affects the outcome of games in any major sport more than the starting pitcher does. When casual baseball bettors makes their picks there are mistakes that are easy to make – and very costly. Here’s a look at five big mistakes bettors make when evaluating […]

How to Handle Streaking Pitchers

As a baseball handicapper there is nothing that annoys me more than streaky pitchers. They can look for a long time like they can’t possible lose, and then before you know it – and for seemingly no reason – they can forget how to pitch for several games in a row. It can be tough to figure out when a good period is going to start or end, and you can lose some serious cash trying to pick when that […]

Differences of MLB Wildcard and LCS Betting

Baseball bettors know that betting on the playoffs is a very different proposition than betting on the regular season. In some subtle but still significant ways betting on the wild card round, the LDS, is different that betting on the LCS as well. here are seven of those differences and the impact they can have for baseball bettors: Better matched teams – In the wild card round mismatches are very possible. The wild card team could limp into the playoffs, […]

World Series Overlooked Betting Mistakes

Betting on the World Series is one of the best things that baseball bettors get to do each year. If you aren’t careful, though, it can also be a very easy time of year to make costly betting mistakes. The coverage of the World Series is understandably more comprehensive and more intense for the Fall Classic than for any other time of the year, and public interest is more intense than ever as a result. For baseball bettors that means that […]

Hidden World Series Betting Opportunities

The World Series is by far the busiest time of the year for baseball betting. Serious MLB bettors bet more money on the final series than on others, and more casual bettors are drawn to betting on the biggest games of the year. While it can be easy to make mistakes betting on the World Series, astute bettors know that the added attention on the games can provide nice opportunities for attractive value. Fore serious baseball handicappers here are five […]

Weather’s Impact on World Series Betting

By the time the World Series rolls around the weather can be a real issue. The ball games are played in the last half of October, and the games are played at night, so it’s almost certain to be cold in northern markets, and rain and even snow can occasionally be a factor. Handicappers need to give the weather more consideration in the World Series than they do any other time of year. The reason for that is simple – […]

Challenges of Opening Day Baseball Betting

For baseball bettors and fans, opening day is a great, great day. It’s when everything is new, and everything is still possible. It’s also the end of an offseason that seems very long after we got used to seeing so many games played every day for months. For bettors who aren’t careful, though, opening day can offer some unique challenges that can be costly if you aren’t thinking about them. Here are six of the biggest challenges of betting opening […]

How To Identify Pitchers Bouncing Back

One of the best sources of value in baseball betting – especially in the first couple of months of the season – is betting on pitchers coming off a lousy year who are returning to their full potential – or at least something close to it. The trick is, of course, that you have to be able to spot these pitchers. That’s an inexact science at best, but here are six things to consider when you are looking for these […]

Betting Adjustments for Baseball Playoffs

In many ways betting on the baseball playoffs is no different than betting on the regular season – after all, baseball is baseball. There are a few key ways, though, that the two portions of the season differ from each other. Winning bettors over the long term are those who can recognize those differences and effectively adjust to them. Here are eight ways that the playoffs are different for bettors from the 162 games that preceded them: Rotations are shortened […]

Post Tommy John Impact on Baseball Handicapping

Tommy John surgery, the procedure in which a damaged ligament in a pitcher’s elbow is replaced by a tendon from elsewhere in the the body, is incredibly common these days in baseball, and becoming more so every day. When it was first performed on Tommy John in 1974 he was given about a one percent chance of full recovery. He played until 1989 and won 164 more games. Now full recovery occurs in about 90 percent of cases. Players who […]

Baseball Betting with Relievers Moving To Rotation

Over the course of each baseball season we see several pitchers who have been toiling in the bullpen become regular members of the starting rotation. Sometimes it is a middle reliever, while other times it will be a closer or set-up man. For bettors these transitions can be challenging. We have come to know the pitcher in a very different role than that of a starter, so we have to figure out how he is going to be able to […]

Baseball Handicapping and Short Rest Pitchers

One of the toughest parts of handicapping the playoffs in baseball is pitchers going on short rest. The deeper we get into the postseason the more desperate teams get, and the more likely it is that a guy will be asked to pitch sooner than would be ideal. A pitcher pitching on short rest is definitely not the same guy he would be in ideal circumstances. Some guys handle it better than others, but every guy is affected by it […]

What to Know Before Betting on Rookie Pitchers

Every year at the start of the major league baseball season there are many rookie pitchers making their major league debut. In the next couple of months many more guys who weren’t quite ready to start the year get their chance. For bettors those pitchers can create interesting betting opportunities. If the bettors aren’t careful, though, then it can be very easy to make mistakes that can prove to be costly. Here are five big mistakes that bettors make when […]

Handicapping MLB Team Momentum into Playoffs

Momentum should be a dirty word for sports bettors. It is one of the hardest concepts in sports to become comfortable with, and one of the very easiest ways for a bettor to be led off track and bet on a team that isn’t as good as they may seem. One of the hardest times to judge momentum is heading into the major league baseball playoffs. Momentum is always a challenge in baseball, but it is especially tough heading into […]

How to Predict MLB Pennant Race Collapses

When a major league baseball team enters September with a cushion of five games or more in the pennant or wild card race then they typically can hang on and get ready for their berth in the playoffs. From time to time, though, we’ll see a team that seems determined to fall out of playoff contention. A playoff team should be rounding into top form in late September, but these teams will lose far more than they win, and they […]

Judging Baseball’s Fast Starting Pitchers

At the start of every Major League Baseball season there are a few pitchers who get off to very fast starts. In their first couple of starts they are virtually unhittable. That leads to an impressive record, a microscopic ERA, impressive stats, and increased attention from the public. The challenge for bettors is to determine whether the fast start is a sign of a very good year ahead for the pitcher, or if he is soon going to fall back […]

Baseball Betting Preseason Prep Tips

Right now baseball seems like the furthest thing from our minds – it’s the middle of winter, NFL football is still in full swing and the Super Bowl is still a couple of weeks away. Before you know it, though, it will be spring training time. Pitchers and catchers report just a week after the Super Bowl, and spring training games kick off less than three weeks later. Successful baseball betting is all about preparation. You need to know everything […]

How to Predict MLB Season Win Totals

With spring training almost underway, that means we are close to one of my favorite times of the year as a sports bettor – the release of baseball season win totals. These are the most interesting props available in any sport all year because they are so interesting to think about, and because you can do pretty well on them if you put your work in. There are as many approaches to handicapping these win totals as there are people […]

Top Mistakes When Betting MLB Season Win Totals

Regular season win totals are an increasingly popular bet, and one that can often present nice value for astute bettors. The problem is, though, that it can be incredibly easy to make costly mistakes with these bets because of the amount of time your money is locked up, and the amount of risk and uncertainty involved in them. Here are six mistakes bettors often make when betting MLB regular season win totals: Being too optimistic – This is a problem […]

Evaluating Futures of Slow Starting MLB Teams

Every year in baseball there are a couple of teams that should be pretty good that get off to absolutely terrible starts. Within a couple of weeks of the season they have fallen well below .500, and are miles out of first place in their division. Sometimes these starts are signs of bigger problems that will continue to be an issue all season. Other times the issues quickly resolve themselves and the team gets back on track – by the […]

Evaluating Odds Using MLB Starter Matchups

Baseball bettors always hear about the importance of evaluating matchups – how a starting pitcher stacks up against an opposing offense. But what does that actually mean? Here are seven factors to consider when evaluating starting pitcher matchups: How well is the team hitting recently? – Bettors can be blinded by how a team is hitting on the year and what their reputation is. That can lead them to entirely ignore how they are performing in the short term. Even […]

How to Succeed in Baseball Handicapping

I love handicapping baseball. I don’t think it is the hardest sport to handicap overall, but it is a unique challenge. In order to succeed at the sport you have to be able to make some adjustments form other sports, and to do some things that you aren’t required to be able to do in other sports. Here are five skills that are unique to success in baseball handicapping: Endurance – The baseball season is grueling for players, and grueling […]

Pitfalls of Baseball Win Total Prop Bets

I love playing baseball season win totals. The number of games teams play and the power of statistics in baseball make the win totals a better place to search for value than any other long term prop bet that is available. The win totals are popular, and that popularity is growing every year. If you aren’t careful, though, you can easily fall into traps and make mistakes that can remove all of the value from the bets and make them […]

Issues of Betting on MLB April Games

If you are anything like me the you are very excited for the dawn of April because it means that baseball – the most glorious of sports for bettors – is here again. It’s here for a long time, too. It can be tough betting on baseball when it starts, though, because baseball in April is different than baseball in any other month of the season. If you are aware of the uniqueness of April and can compensate for the […]

Mistake of Overreacting to Baseball News

Baseball seems like such a simple game – you hit the ball and run around the bases. People who know and love the sport, though, know how complex and at times confusing it can be. For everything that really matters in baseball there are a dozen things that seem like they should but really don’t. That misleading complexity can lead to problems for casual bettors because they can easily overcompensate for those situations that seem like a good reason to […]

MLB Managers Impact on Handicapping Games

Managers are a tough thing for handicappers to deal with when making baseball picks. On the grand scale they are obviously important – the manager sets the tone for the team and keeps them on task and motivated. From game to game, though, I don’t believe at all that managers are particularly important – outside of big playoff games the impact of the managers is far less than other factors to the outcome of an individual game. That means that […]

Identifying True Improvement in MLB Teams

Typically, it takes several years for a baseball team to develop and grow from a pretender to a contender. Every so often, though, a team is able to go from the basement to the penthouse in just one year. The Twins made a habit of it in the 1980s and early 1990s, and Arizona, Colorado, Tampa Bay and others have pulled it off as well. It’s very exciting to watch one of these miraculous recoveries. It can also be extremely […]

Early Season MLB Betting Mistakes

The offseason in baseball can seem like it goes on forever. For baseball bettors, then, opening day is a time of immense excitement and possibility. The first couple of weeks of the new baseball season can be unpredictable, though. New faces and changed teams can make it hard to get a good sense of what is likely to happen, and where the value is. People can make a good profit in those first uncertain weeks. If they aren’t careful, though, […]

Opportunity of Baseball Parlay Bets

Most people who are familiar with the intricacies of sports betting will tell you that parlays are for suckers. In almost all cases they are right. There are situations in baseball that can be different, though. In fact, sometimes parlaying in baseball can be a good idea. Before we look at why baseball is different, let’s look at why parlays are generally a bad idea using football as an example Let’s say we are going to parlay three games against […]

Baseball Handicapping for Injured Starting Pitchers

As the season progresses in baseball it is a sure thing that starting pitchers are going to get hurt and be forced to miss a start or more. For baseball handicappers, any change to the rotation can cause a headache because it introduces more uncertainty to the handicapping process. It’s not as simple as viewing an injury and the disruption that it causes as a bad thing because sometimes teams can handle the situation very well. Here are seven issues […]

Judging Baseballs Underdog Bets

Baseball betting is largely done on the moneyline. Any time you are betting on the moneyline underdogs become attractive – there is nothing wrong at all with getting back more money than you bet when you win. The challenge, though, is telling the difference between the live longshots that are worthy of your support, and the ones that aren’t going to win and are just going to cost you money instead. Here are five tips that can help you spot […]

How to Handicap Baseball Bullpens

For baseball handicappers there are few things harder to evaluate than bullpens. It is tough to know in any given game how much a bullpen is likely to be needed, which pitchers will be used, and which batters they are likely to face. The response that most bettors have in this situation is just to ignore the bullpen – they don’t factor it into their handicapping at all. That can be appropriate in many situations, but if you ignore the […]

Handicapping Clues from Baseball Spring Training

It is very difficult to learn too much that is meaningful in regard to sports picks from the games played in the first half of spring training. Teams don’t care about the results, preparation means more than wins, rosters are in a constant state of flux, and split squads make it very tough to assess matchups, so what we see on the field tells us little about what to expect on the field in April and beyond. That doesn’t mean […]

Handling Baseball Broken Streaks

Streaks are a big part of baseball. You never have to wait long until you can see another team in the midst of a long stretch of futility. Because teams play virtually every day it doesn’t take long for the losses to add up, and things can get ugly in a hurry if a team loses confidence. Streaks are crucial for baseball bettors. They can ride them while they are ongoing, and cash several times in a row. As the […]

Uncommon Baseball Bets – 5 Inning Bet

When people think about betting on baseball, they usually consider the moneyline or, less frequently, the runline. There is another option that is far less often considered, but which can be useful in some circumstances – the 5 inning bet, also known as the first half bet. This simply is a line that is set based on the outcome of the first five innings of a game. It’s not a bet that you would likely want to use all the […]

Betting Baseball With Ace Vs. Ace Hype

During the long baseball season games can blend into each other and all seem like they are the same. When there is something that can make a particular game stand out from the crowd and gain some attention then it can really draw a lot of betting attention. One of the ways that games can stand out is if both teams are starting their aces. The betting public loves betting on aces, so if there are two with big reputations […]

Understanding Baseball Runline – Alternate Bet

A lot of casual baseball bettors have enough trouble getting their heads around the moneyline, so they don’t even consider the runline – a moneyline with a spread of 1.5 runs. It’s a mistake because in the right situations the runline can be very profitable. The favorite has to win by two runs in order for a runline bet to pay off, so there is a higher payoff when you bet a runline and win then there is if you […]

Baseball Betting for Rookie Bettors

Baseball is a great sport to bet on. For bettors who don’t regularly bet on it, though, it can be very intimidating. There are a couple of good reasons for that. Most significantly, you have to bet with the moneyline or runline when most bettors are more familiar with the point spread. There is also the relentlessness of baseball to deal with – 15 games almost every day with no breaks and little time to analyze and process the endless […]

Betting on Misleading Baseball Stats

Baseball is a stat driven league. That means that baseball handicappers who want to be successful have to have a good grasp on statistics and how to interpret them. The problem, though, is that some of the statistics that are regularly published in newspapers and magazines, discussed on TV, and embrace by the public aren’t particularly useful as indicators of what players and teams are really capable of. Here’s a look at five well-publicized statistics that aren’t nearly as significant […]