For some reason, sports bettors seem to be a volatile lot. When a pick service gets it right for them, they can be overly thankful and when they don’t get it correct, the sports bettors can be a vocally miserable group. They exhibit what Allan Greenspan has called an “irrational exuberance.” It’s a sort of bipolar type of attitude and behavior that is about as gung ho as anyone can be when things are going well and as disillusioned and panicky as anyone can get when things are going bad.
Greenspan was talking about investors in the stock market and how they can be as volatile as the market itself. It’s funny, but sports bettors have a similar bent. In fact, they often seem to exhibit more of an “irrational exuberance” than those who invest in stocks. If a handicapping service has an 80% run, which does happen, the emails the service gets would make you think that sports bettors were winning 100% or even more!
The problem is that bettors start to see the sports handicapper as being about as close to infallible as one can get. They also start to believe that 80% is the way things should and will be each and every day. Of course, the professional pick maker knows better. They’ve seen it all before. They have seen 100%, 80%, 50% and 0% days.
So the overly enthusiastic sports bettor needs to heed a warning—all things must pass. Eventually all will even out so that your pick service is averaging between 53% and 60% on all picks. Of course, that means that you’re going to see some lean days ahead. It’s only natural.
Sports bettors need to realize that an 80% run in the black means no more than an 80% run in the red. What is meaningful in sports betting is the overall average rate of return. That is how you gauge success. If you find a handicapper bragging about their recent accomplishments and nothing more, then be wary. If a handicapper does have a good week or month, then they should be happy. But they should also show that they can make a profit over the long run. That is key.
So what should you do when your pick service goes on an 80% run? Celebrate a little and enjoy it. Raise your standard unit, ensuring it’s 2% of your bankroll. Don’t try to project what you’ll have in your pocket if you make 80% over the course of the year. It’s not realistic. But ride the tide and enjoy it! Make the most of this prime opportunity and be vigilant and on the lookout for any changing trends or downturn in the sports betting market.
Basically, what you do want to do is to make a mental note of this great streak. Hold onto it, especially when you find yourself on a bad run. Keep things in perspective at all times. Remember, when things are great and when things are dismal, they will even out. That’s simply the way that sports betting works.
Finally, stay focused on your next bets, enjoy the betting and the sports and prepare for the unexpected. After all wasn’t the 80% success rate unexpected? It’s a great thing. But don’t get consumed by it.
A few other things that all sports bettors should do whatever their case may be. Keep current on all trends and developments. Look for soft and value-based lines. When a line changes, you should reconsider it. Try to find opportunities where you can exploit mismatches or when the makeup of a team changes. By the way, often when some new blood comes to a team via a trade, that club will win its next game or at least be more competitive. Try to take advantage of momentary changes in energy that can upset or change trends. If you are vigilant, you’ll find them and make even more winning wagers.
Sports betting is really a daily process that involves a commitment from the bettor. They need to stay tuned to each and every aspect and development in the sports world, looking for that little change that will give them an edge. It may be a trade, it could be a half-point change in the spread or it might be an injury. Smart sports bettors will look for and seek out information that they can turn into a profit.
You never know. Even if you have a great handicapping service, you want to be looking for ways to use the knowledge that you possess to make even more cash. There’s a lot of opportunity out there, and you want to take advantage of it each and every day. Steady goes the ship that gets to its final destination and your final destination should be profitable. That’s all that there is to it.