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College Basketball Betting Articles

How To Calculate RPI and What it Means To Handicappers

RPI – an acronym that gets thrown around a lot in the world of college basketball. Like a lot of things in sports, though, a lot of people talk about it without really understanding what it is, why it matters, the faults it has, and how it can be useful by sports handicappers. The RPI, which stands for Ratings Percentage Index, is a mathematical calculation used in college basketball to aid in how teams are selected for the NCAA tournament, […]

Putting A Value On Home Court Advantage in College Basketball

For college basketball bettors there’s something to consider when it comes to home court advantage. Have you ever watched a Duke NCAA basketball game? Or a game of the Maryland Terps? Maybe the Kansas Jayhawks? If you have attended one of these teams’ arenas, you know what I’m talking about. From loud chants to throwing objects on the court, these crowds are tough to play in front if you’re the away team. The home-fans are right on top of opposing players and let […]

Judging If A Team Is Ready To Bounce Back After An Upset Loss

Upsets are a big part of college basketball – one of the things that makes the sport so great. Teams at the top of the rankings can look so talented and potent that they are seemingly unbeatable, but then they can fall to a totally unexpected foe. Predicting those upsets can be very tough for the basketball handicapper, so it can be tough finding value betting on them. Where you often can find opportunities, though, is by looking at the […]

How to Tell When Slumping Teams Are Ready To Break Out Of It

We see it season after college basket season. A NCAA hoop team comes out of the gate blazing then goes into a freefall. In 2010 Syracuse started the season 18-0 and were one of the last undefeated teams standing. A loss to Pitt was followed by one to Villanova, and their confidence was totally shot. They went on to lose four straight and were clearly and obviously in a brutal slump heading into a very tough stretch of conference games. Watching them […]

What Handicappers Should Look For After A Ranked Team Gets Crushed

Near the end of January in 2011 the Big Ten in college basketball gave us a very exciting and very educational matchup between Purdue and Ohio State. Purdue, ranked 12th in the country at the time, was a talented basketball team who was proving they were a force in the national picture. Ohio State was the number one NCAA team in that country, and with a loss by San Diego State that night they became the last unbeaten team standing. The game was […]

Transitioning Your Handicapping From Non Conf to Conference Games

Conference play starts right away in college basketball, and will take us right into the NCAA tournament. There are some key differences that sports bettors need to understand and adapt to between non-conference play and conference play if they want to have a profitable winter. Here are seven ways that college basketball handicappers need to recognize in which conference play is different: Familiarity – In non-conference play college teams will often play teams that they have never played before, or ones that they […]

How To Make Money Handicapping Games Involving 2 Bad Teams

When most college basketball bettors – certainly casual ones – are looking at the games on offer on a given day looking for the most attractive they are drawn to the ones with the biggest names involved. Games between ranked teams always draw the most money, followed by those with one highly ranked team. I don’t start with those games at all. I actually rarely bet them. I go to the other extreme – I like to start with the […]

Differences Between Betting on Major and Mid Major Teams

Betting on college basketball is great for a whole lot of reasons. One of the biggest reasons is how varied it can be – every day is different. Much more than any of the other major sports college basketball is so varied. That’s what happens when you have more than 300 teams playing at a wide range of talent levels, but all playing towards one goal – making the NCAA Tournament. In a lot of ways betting on any game […]

Important Stats NCAA Basketball Handicappers Need To Know

Turnover percentage and defense field goal percentage are keys in college basketball point spread betting. Turn on SportsCenter on any given night during the NCAA college basketball season, and you will most likely find a buzzer-beating three or a monster dunk in the day’s Top-10 plays. On the other hand you will very seldom see great perimeter defense or an offense controlling the ball. They’re just not as flashy. However, they are the keys to your success when betting against […]

Increasing Your Bankroll By Spotting Overrated Teams

Because there are so many NCAA basketball teams playing in so many different leagues college basketball can be really intimidating for a lot of bettors. To combat that problem a lot of public bettors rely heavily on public and media perception of teams – basing their opinions on what they read and hear from the media. Because of that, one of the real gems for handicappers to find is a team that the media likes that is clearly overrated. If the […]

How To Handicap College Basketball Teams On The Bubble

The closer the calendar gets to March the more intense the Bubble Watch can be in college basketball. As the regular NCAA basketball season nears the end there are several teams out there that are playing for their tournament lives. There are inevitably more teams that are worthy of playing in the NCAA Tournament than there are spaces for them. That means that some very solid teams are going to be left out. Being outside of the bubble is the […]

Dealing With Teams That Exceed Preseason Expectations

We are far enough into the college basketball season that some real surprises have started to emerge. Every year there are a couple of teams that weren’t even ranked in the preseason polls – and perhaps didn’t even get votes in the poll – that vault into the rankings or even into the top ten. Any time a team so dramatically exceeds their expectations handicappers are left to determine if what we are seeing is a fluke, or if the […]

Evaluating the Betting Impact of Mid Season Player Additions

Each year a few college basketball teams get a very nice gift right before Christmas. That’s when the academic term ends, so it’s also when basketball players who weren’t eligible in the first semester can join the team and start playing. There are usually a few intriguing, valuable players that get added. The challenge for college basketball handicappers is to determine what the impact of these midseason additions and the other lower profile ones that join their teams will actually […]

Tips For Handicapping Teams That Out Class Their Conference Foes

In NCAA basektball, Gonzaga is looking mortal these days, but for many years they were so much better than every basketball team in their conference that it just wasn’t fair. Before Butler made history by going all the way to the championship game in 2010 they have rolled to a perfect record in the Horizon League. Memphis’ success on the national stage under John Calipari coincided with totally ridiculous dominance of Conference USA. These aren’t the only cases in which […]

Dealing With Media Hype and Overreactions

In college basketsball, the sports media loves to overreact to situations. It seems like it is their favorite thing to do. A NCAA hoop team wins a couple of games in a row in impressive fashion and they have already been awarded the title. Lose a couple and they might as well fold. A basketball player with a couple of good games is breaking out, while one who has a couple of off games should probably retire. A college coach who […]

Handicapper Advice For Games Involving No Hope Teams

When February rolls around there is still a lot of college basketball left to play and bet on before the postseason starts. For dozens of NCAA teams, though, all they are doing is putting in time. Their records are lousy, there are no post-season prospects, and it’s probably getting harder and harder to get excited about playing yet another game they are likely to lose. Because the basketball teams that are struggling don’t typically get much media attention they have fallen out […]

Advice For Betting On The Obscure Added Board Teams

There are so many college basketball teams and conferences out there that we can’t possibly keep track of them all. Some NCAA conferences are so obscure that the only time we hear about them each year is when the winner of the conference loses to a number one seed by 40. Those baketball teams often play games on which a spread isn’t even set by the major sports book. Every so often, though, those teams play games against higher profile […]

Tips For Handicapping The Rematch In Conference Games

A tricky part about gambling on college basketball conference games is the rematch. Usually in a NCAA conference two teams will play each other twice, both home and away. Sometimes this can fool the new bettor into simply looking at the last matchup between the two teams when making their decision on who to bet on. However, it is not as simple as that, but there are many factors that go into that second conference game that can make college basketball […]

Rating Teams By Simulating With College Basketball Win Distributions

One of the best things about handicapping sports and especially college basketball, is that there is always more to learn and different ways to think about things. Unless you are getting every game right you can always do better – pick more winners and win more money. there are a lot of people out there looking at sports and statistics in a lot of interesting and very powerful ways. With a little creativity and determination you can use these statistics to […]

Handicapping the Impact of Seniors on a Basketball Team

When a lot of people talk about college basketball – especially outside of the handful of elite, top level programs – they talk a lot about the significance of seniors in the lineup. The theory is that seniors are more experienced, they provide better leadership, and teams are generally better when they have more of them. That makes sense, and like most things that sound good it is at least partly true. It’s obviously not that easy and straightforward, though. […]

College Basketball Prop Betting Do’s and Dont’s

With the college basketball season about to start a lot of sports bettors are thinking about season long props – like who will win the national championship. Originally, my plan was to write an article about what to do and what not to do when it comes to making prop bets. To be honest, though, there’s not much that I think you should do when it comes to these bets. They have their purposes, but there are very few reasons for […]

How Handicappers Use College Basketball Polls In Their Handicapping

There are a lot of problems with polls – especially in college football. In college basketball, though, the polls are an under-appreciated means of drawing insights about teams and leagues. You aren’t going to learn a lot from just looking at the poll at face value, but some simple analysis of what you see can help you quickly get a sense of what’s going on in the sport and where opportunities may lie. Here are five ways the polls can […]

When To Back A Mid Major Against A Major Conference Opponent

The general betting public for college basketball has plenty of biases – favorites and the over, for example. Oddsmakers are fully aware of those biases, and they adjust the lines accordingly to maximize their chances at profit. That means that successful bettors are also aware of those biases, and they factor in the line movement in their hunt for value. When it comes to college basketball, one of the public biases is the support of teams from major conferences when […]

Why Home Court Advantage Varies From Stadium To Stadium

Home court advantage isn’t really a difficult concept in basketball. Teams are more comfortable when they play at home in front of their home crowd and sleep in their own beds, so they play better at home than they do on the road in most cases. Everyone understands that. When it comes to betting on college basketball, though, the challenge can be in figuring out just how significant the home court advantage is. Unlike some sports where the advantage of […]

What Bettors Should Take Note Of Now Concerning Coaching Changes

March is obviously all about the  tournament when it comes to college basketball. Smart bettors know, though, that March is also when the coaching carousel starts to spin at full force. In most cases it’s hard to get too excited about coaching changes when they happen – the team needed to make a change, and we won’t see the new coach coach a game for many months. Smart bettors know, though, that right when a coaching change is made is […]

Midnight Madness Clues for Handicappers

Astute college basketball bettors know that they can gain a big edge over the general public by paying attention to the first couple of weeks of college basketball practice in October. Midnight Madness draws some attention in some schools, but after that most bettors are too distracted by the NFL, college football, the World Series and the start of the hockey and NBA seasons to spend too much time worrying about what is going on in the campus gyms around […]

College Basketball Non-conference Traps

Non-conference college basketball is great for one big reason – it means we are closer to conference play and tournament season, and both of those are brilliant. Betting on the non-conference season can be fruitful for bettors. If those sports bettors aren’t careful, though, the non-conference schedule is littered with traps to fall into – traps that could prove very costly. Here are six college basketball non-conference traps that  college basketball handicappers want to be aware of so they can avoid […]

Handicapping Basketball Conference Championships

At the end of every college basketball regular season each conference crowns a champion. For some teams those regular season titles are extremely important and highly motivating. For others, though, it is not a particularly significant motivating factor. Bettors who are able to tell the difference between teams that will elevate their game in pursuit of a conference title down the stretch and those that will keep playing like they have been playing all along can earn valuable insight into […]

Basketball Betting Adjustments for Senior Night

Near the end of the college basketball regular season in hundreds of gyms across the country one of the great traditions in all of sports happens – Seniors’ Night. After a college player has played four or five years with a program and given their heart and soul to it Seniors’ Night gives the team, the fans, and the school a chance to recognize them and thank them for all they have done. The player’s parents and families are typically […]

What to Look for in College Basketball Exhibitions

At the start of the college basketball season many teams choose to play an exhibition game or two in an attempt to get ready for their season. These are typically against hopelessly outmatched opponents – often from as low as Division III. If elite teams do play Division I-A opponents then they certainly won’t be good ones. These games aren’t betting opportunities, but harcore college basketball bettors who are hungry for the season to start can still get pretty excited […]

Conference vs. Non-conf Basketball Betting Strategy

When the college basketball calendar shifts from non-conference play into the conference schedule successful bettors are always on the lookout for teams that could perform in a way that could surprise unprepared bettors. That means that they are looking for basketball teams that are poised to be either notably better or notably worse in conference play than they were when playing their non-conference schedule. There are several different scenarios in which a team can beat expectations or fall short of […]

Handling Isolated Non-conference Basketball Game

The schedule for college basketball teams is typically straight forward. Teams start out by playing non-conference games and maybe throw in a preseason tournament. Around Christmas time the non-conference schedule ends and  college basketball teams head into conference play right up to conference tournament time in late February or early March. Every so often, though, some teams deviate from that schedule a little bit by throwing a non-conference game in the middle of their conference season. There are several reasons they […]

How Handicappers Spot Slumping Tourney Teams

In a perfect world every college basketball team would quietly but steadily improve throughout the season, and would be ready to perform at their peak by the middle of March. Of course, things rarely work out that smoothly. Quite often a team will start to slide just when they could be firing things up. A slump in March is not a disaster, but it certainly could be if it extends into  the tournament when a loss is fatal. It’s important […]

Big Ten / ACC Challenge Basketball Betting Tips

The profile of the Big Ten – ACC Challenge seems to grow each year. It’s an event that is purely made for TV, but with passing time there have been some college basketball rivalries built up, and teams and coaches seem to be more and more invested in winning the challenge for their conference. With the growing profile of the event there is more bettor interest every year, and more potential to make some good money. Bettors who chose to […]

Why to Bet Early Season College Basketball Games

There are some good arguments that can be made for betting on college basketball in November – the first month of the season. There are some good arguments to be made for not betting on the sport at that time as well. So, that’s we’re going to do – we’ll make the arguments for both sides. I’ll make the arguments for college basketball handicappers to be betting on college hoops in the first month of the season here, and in an […]

Why Bettors Wait to Bet on College Basketball

There are good reasons to bet on college basketball in the first month of the season in November, and good reasons not to bet on it then. In another article we looked at five reasons why you would want to bet on these games. Here I want to look at the other side – six reasons why betting on college basketball in the first month of the season may not be the best idea for college basketball handicappers. No real […]

6 Common Mistakes for College Basketball Betting

College basketball is a great game to bet on. There are an incredible number of games to choose from, information is plentiful and easy to find, and lines – particularly early in the season – are considerably softer than in major pro sports. College basketball doesn’t get nearly as much attention as it deserves before February or March, and that means that bettors are missing out. If you don’t bet the sport regularly outside of tournament time then you really […]

Finding Value In Preseason College Basketball Rankings

Early in the college basketball season a lot of bettors won’t be familiar with what to expect from most teams because they haven’t seen them play or read much about them. That means that many of those sports bettors will rely heavily on the preseason and early season rankings to judge which teams are good and which teams aren’t. That’s obviously not the best approach. Early in the year the college polls are largely determined by reputations and hype because […]

Rating Home Court Advantage in College Basketball

A lot of college basketball handicappers tend to think of home court advantage as being relatively static – it will be basically be the same from game to game in the same building. That’s not always the case. There are several different circumstances in which even the most supportive and vocal of crowds can elevate their noise and enthusiasm to a higher level. That can have a big impact both on the excitement their players play with and on the […]

Handicapping Good Basketball Teams After Blow Outs

Every college basketball season we see a couple of top five teams get absolutely crushed in a game. I’m not talking about losing games they should have won, or getting beaten by a few points. I’m talking about an epic beatdown – a 20 or 30 point margin in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score suggests. These college games seem to come out of nowhere, and they obviously come as a big surprise to fans and […]

Why Good College Basketball Teams Lose Bets

In February of 2012 in college basketball the New Mexico Lobos were red hot and were quickly becoming regarded as one of the mid-majors that could make some real noise in the NCAA tournament. They had won seven in a row capped by consecutive decisive wins over fellow Mountain West powers San Diego State and UNLV. They were rolling, and the nation was taking note. Then they went out and lost badly to a pretty lousy Colorado State team – […]

Early Basketball Tournament Handicapping Mistakes

For many college basketball bettors – especially the more casual ones – the big preseason tournaments mark the first time that they pay attention to the sport. Preseason tournaments like the Maui Invitational or the Old Spice Classic can offer big name showdowns early in the season when most other games just aren’t that interesting. These tournaments can be great betting opportunities for prepared bettors. If bettors are too casual, though, they can make costly mistakes that can put them […]

College Basketball Betting Strategy for Mid Majors

Most college basketball bettors probably know that there is good value to be had in betting on the mid-major conferences. Most bettors probably don’t spend nearly as much time betting on those conferences as they do on the big ones, though. It makes sense – there are a huge number of conferences, and most get barely any national coverage most of the year. Unless you are doing nothing but handicapping college basketball it just isn’t possible for most bettors to […]

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