Week Five College Football Betting: California Golden Bears at #2 Oregon Ducks

California Golden Bears at #2 Oregon Ducks
Autzen Stadium – Eugene, Oregon

Saturday, September 28, 2013, 10:30 pm Eastern, TV: Pac 12 Network
Opening Line: Oregon -31
Current Line: Oregon -37
Opening Total: 82 1/2
Current Total: 80 1/2
Opening Money Line: Oregon -27000 / Cal +13000
Current Money Line: Oregon -29700 / Cal +14300

Oregon is a massive 37 point favorite at home against Cal in the Pac 12 opener for both schools.
Oregon is a massive 37 point favorite at home against Cal in the Pac 12 opener for both schools.

The 3-0 Oregon Ducks host the 1-2 California Golden Bears Saturday in the Pac 12 opener for both schools. Although Cal leads the series 39-34-2, Oregon has won 4 straight overall in the series including 59-17 last year in Berkeley. The Ducks are 9-1 against the Golden Bears  in Eugene in the last meetings.

California is coached by Sonny Dykes in his first year. The Bears have played a very tough schedule so far with home losses to now #17 Northwestern 44-30 and to #4 Ohio State 52-34 two weeks ago. Cal’s only win came at home against Portland State. The Bears are 0-3 ATS and all three games have gone over the total. Cal was a 12.5 point underdog against Ohio State and the total was 62.5.

Ohio State scored 21 straight points to open the game, and would take a 24-14 lead by the end of the first quarter. The Buckeyes scored another touchdown midway through the second to make it 31-14, and Cal would add 2 field goals to make it 31-20 at the half. Ohio St scored 2 touchdowns to open the third and expand the lead to 45-20. The Golden Bears added a touchdown to pull within 45-27, but Ohio State scored another touchdown late in the third to go back up by 25 points 52-27. Cal scored a touchdown with just over 6 minutes to go in the fourth to make the final 52-34. Cal had 503 total yards including 371 passing yards. Ohio State had 608 total yards including 332 passing yards. Cal had two turnovers and the Ohio State had one.

Cal is being outscored 42-34 this season. The Golden Bears are #9 in total offense nationally at 555.7 yards per game including the second best passing attack at 437 yards per game. The rushing game is #97 nationally at 118.7 yards per game. On defense, California is allowing 559.7 yards per game including 294.3 passing yards and 265.3 rushing yards. The Golden Bears are #112 or worse in all defense categories. Cal is even in turnovers with 6 takeaways and giveaways. Cal is averaging 56 penalty yards per game and their opponents are averaging 63 yards per game. The Bears are 30/63 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 21/48. California has forced 3 sacks this season but allowed 12. The Golden Bears are 13/14 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns, and opponents are 13/13 with 9 touchdowns. California has allowed two pick sixes this season.

California quarterback Jared Goff has completed 61.3% of his passes for 1,306 yards with 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with a rushing touchdown. Running back Brendan Bigelow has 44 carries for 175 yards, plus 8 catches for 71 yards. Daniel Lasco and Khalfani Muhammed will also get some carries, and each has a touchdown run. Receiver Chris Harper has 21 catches, 324 yards and 3 touchdowns. Bryce Treggs has 28 catches, 317 yards and a touchdown. Ten Cal defensive players and two offensive linemen are listed as questionable or out Saturday.

Oregon is coached by Mark Helfrich. The Ducks have home wins over Nicholls State 66-3 and two weeks ago against Tennessee 59-14, along with a road win at Virginia 59-10. Oregon is 3-0 ATS and all three games have gone over the total. The Ducks were 28 point favorites against Tennessee and the total was 69.5.

Tennessee actually scored first to take a 7-0 lead, but the lead was short lived. Oregon scored 38 unanswered points to take the lead into halftime. Just for good measure Oregon added 3 touchdowns in the the third quarter to take a 59-7 lead. Tennessee added a touchdown in the fourth, notable only because it put the game over the total. Oregon had 687 total yards including 417 passing yards. Tennessee had 316 total yards. The Volunteers had the only turnover of the game.

Oregon is outscoring teams 61-9 this season. The Ducks average 672 yards per game including 355.2 rushing yards. Oregon is #2 in scoring, total, and rushing offense, and #18 in passing. Oregon is allowing 319 yards per game on defense, including 189.3 passing yards. The Ducks are +7 in turnovers for the season with no giveaways. Oregon is 17/38 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 20/61. The Ducks have forced 8 sacks and allowed 2. Oregon is 16/19 scoring in the red zone with 13  touchdowns, and opponents are 4/6 with 2 touchdowns. The Ducks are averaging 74 penalty yards per game, and opponents are averaging 45.

Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota has completed 59.8% of his passes for 889 yards with 7 touchdowns, and no interceptions, along with 15 carries for 262 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is a Heisman contender. Running back De’Anthony Thomas has 42 carries, 338 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with 3 catches for 58 yards. Byron Marshall has 29 carries, 196 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Thomas Tyner has 12 carries for 80 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Josh Huff has 14 catches for 298 yards and a touchdown. Bralon Addison has 11 catches for 174 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Pharoah Brown is questionable for undisclosed reasons.

Cal is 4-9 ATS after a bye week, 4-11 in road games, 1-4 against teams with winning home records, after a double digit home loss, and after passing for more than 280 yards, 3-13 overall, 0-6 after failing to cover, after allowing 40 points or more, and after allowing more than 200 rushing yards. 0-5 after a straight up loss, in Pac 12 games, on fieldturf and against teams with winning records, 0-4 after gaining more than 450 total yards. and in September. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 in this series, and 6-0 in Oregon.

Oregon is 4-0 ATS after allowing 20 points or less, 10-1 after rushing for 200 yards or more, and overall, 8-1 after scoring 40 points or more, and after a straight up win, 7-1 after a cover, and after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 6-1 in Pac 12 games, 5-1 at home and on fieldturf, 4-1 after gaining more than 450 total yards, and after allowing less than 170 passing yards, 11-3 after a bye week, 25-8-2 against teams with losing records, and 2-5-1 after passing for more than 280 yards. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 in this series. The Ducks are 4-1 ATS in Eugene against the Bears.

Not only is Cal depleted on defense, they weren’t very good to begin with. If Northwestern and Ohio State can shred Cal like they did I can’t imagine what Oregon will do. Cal can score a lot too, but Oregon’s defense is underrated. Lay the 37 with Oregon.

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