Week Five Big 12 College Football Betting: #11 Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers
#11 Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers
Mountaineer Field – Morgantown, West Virginia
Saturday, September 28, 2013, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Oklahoma State -17
Current Line: Oklahoma State -18
Opening Total: 58
Current Total: 57
Opening Money Line: Oklahoma State -1500 / West Virginia +1000
Current Money Line: Oklahoma State -1000 / West Virginia +650
The 3-0 Oklahoma State Cowboys open Big 12 play at the 2-2 West Virginia Mountaineers Saturday in Morgantown. This is the fifth meeting the schools and the series is tied at 2-2. Oklahoma State won last year’s meeting 55-34 in Stillwater. It was the first year for West Virginia in the Big 12 after many years in the Big East. The Cowboys haven’t played in Morgantown since 1928.
The two head coaches know each other very well as WVU coach Dana Holgorsen was the offensive coordinator under OSU coach Mike Gundy before Holgorsen became the head coach at West Virginia in 2010.
Oklahoma State is ranked #11 in the country. The Cowboys took last week off after opening wins over Mississippi State 21-3 in Houston, 56-35 at UTSA, and two weeks ago at home against Lamar 59-3. OSU is 2-1 ATS and the total is 1-2 this season. The Cowboys covered the 47 point spread against Lamar and the total barely stayed under the 64.5 number.
Oklahoma State scored the first 31 points of the game against Lamar before the Cardinals finally got on the board with a field goal as time expired in the first half. The Cowboys added 28 points in the second half to complete the rout. Oklahoma State had 426 total yards including 155 rushing yards. Lamar had 245 total yards including 121 rushing yards and 13 first downs. Each team had a turnover, The Cowboys only had the ball for just over 22 minutes, compared to 37 minutes for Lamar.
Oklahoma State is outscoring teams 45-14 this season. The Cowboys have only give up 13 total points in the first 3 quarters. Against Texas-San Antonio, The Cowboys gave up 28 points to the Roadrunners in the fourth quarter when the game was already decided. OSU is averaging 489.3 total yards per game on offense, including 311.7 passing yards. On defense, the Cowboys are allowing 360.7 total yards per game on defense, including 122.3 rushing yards. Oklahoma St is +4 in turnovers with 5 takeaways. The Cowboys are averaging 58 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 53. The Cowboys are 21/38 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 22/64. OSU has forced 7 sacks and allowed 2. The Pokes are a perfect 15/15 scoring in the red zone with 15 touchdowns, and their opponents are 5/8 with four touchdowns. The Cowboys have a punt return for a touchdown.
Quarterback J.W. Walsh was locked in a tight battle with Clint Chelf for the starting job through fall camp. Chelf started against Mississippi State but was yanked after struggling for a couple of series. Walsh came in and has been the starter ever since. Walsh has completed 70.2% of his passes for 642 yards with 5 touchdowns and an interception. He is also the leading rusher with 25 carries for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns. Chelf played in the second half of the routs over UTSA and Lamar. He has completed 71.4% of his passes for 293 yards with 3 touchdowns and no picks, along with 7 carries for 31 yards and a score.
Running back Jeremy Smith has 37 carries, 176 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with 6 catches. Desmond Roland has 24 carries, 89 yards and a touchdown, along with 3 catches for 44 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Josh Stewart has 12 catches for 185 yards with a touchdown. Jhajuan Seales has 11 catches, 123 yards and a touchdown. Charlie Moore has 11 catches, 109 yards and a touchdown. Blake Jackson has 6 catches, 98 yards and 2 touchdowns.
West Virginia has home wins over William & Mary 24-17 and Georgia St 41-7, and road losses at Oklahoma 16-7 and last week against Maryland 37-0 in Baltimore. The Mountaineers are 1-3 ATS and all four games have gone under the total. Against Maryland, West Virginia was a 3.5 point underdog, and the total was 54.
The Mountaineers couldn’t do anything on offense against the Terrapins. West Virginia fund themselves down 30-0 at halftime. The only reason it wasn’t worse, was because the WVU defense held Maryland to field goals on three drives. Maryland added another score in the second half to complete the 37-0 shutout. West Virginia was held to 175 total yards and 6 first downs. Maryland wasn’t exactly explosive on offense either as they had 323 total yards and 17 first downs. Both teams had 7 penalties, but West Virginia had 6 turnovers, including a 28 yard interception Maryland returned for a touchdown. The Terps had 2 turnovers of their own.
West Virginia is being outscored 19-18 this season. The Mountaineers are averaging 393.8 yards per game on offense, including 174.8 rushing yards. On defense, West Virginia is allowing 323.5 total yards per game, including 155 passing yards. The Mountaineers are #13 in pass defense nationally. West Virginia is -4 in turnovers with 8 takeaways. The Mountaineers are averaging 55.8 penalty yards per game. WVU is 17/56 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 22/63. West Virginia has allowed 7 sacks and forced 7 sacks as well. The Mountaineers are 6/8 scoring in the red zone with 4 touchdowns, and opponents are 11/13 with 6 touchdowns.
West Virginia quarterback Paul Millard started the first two games but was largely ineffective. He was benched in favor of freshman Ford Childress for the next two games. He has completed 57.1% of his passes for 421 yards with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He struggled against Maryland throwing for only 62 yards and 2 interceptions. Childress will reportedly start against Oklahoma St, but Florida St transfer Clint Trickett could also be in the mix.
Running back Charles Sims has 60 carries, 328 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 12 catches for 81 yards. Dreamius Smith has 39 carries, 251 yards and 2 touchdowns. Wendell Smallwood has 18 carries, 139 yards and a touchdown, along with 3 catches for 30 yards. Receiver Ronald Carswell has 9 catches, 196 yards and a touchdown. Daikiel Shorts has 12 catches, 151 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ivan McCartney has 7 catches, 107 yards and a touchdown. Kevin White, K.J. Myers, Devonte Mathis, and Mario Alford will also get significant catches. Six Mountaineer defensive players are listed on the injury report including 4 linebackers.
Oklahoma State is 4-0 ATS after a straight up win by 20 points or more, 4-1 after scoring more than 40 points, 6-2 overall, 21-8 on fieldturf, 5-2 in Big 12 games, and after a straight up win, 3-7 after a cover, 1-4-1 after allowing 275 total yards or less, and 1-6 in road games.
West Virginia is 4-0 ATS in Big 12 games, 9-2 after gaining 275 total yards or less, 4-9 against teams with winning records, 2-6 at home, 2-7 on fieldturf, 1-4 overall, 3-13 against teams with winning records, 1-5 in September, and 0-5 after scoring less than 20 points.
This game has the potential to get ugly in a hurry. If West Virginia gave up 30 points to a mediocre Maryland team Oklahoma State could score at least 50 points with their high octane up tempo attack. The OSU defense is underrated and West Virginia hasn’t been good on offense no matter who the quarterback is. The Cowboys should roll even on the road.
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