Week 4 NFL Betting Trends

Week 4 NFL Betting Trend Report

Here is the week 4 NFL Betting Trend Report

One of the big story lines for Week 4 of the NFL season is the Washington-Philadelphia match-up and the soap opera that is Donovan McNabb, Andy Reid and Michael Vick  But if you can get by the made-for-TV drama, there are some trends to consider when handicapping the game. The Eagles, a 5 ½-point home favorite, are 136-96 ATS (+30.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992. The over for the Eagles is 7-0 (+7.0 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. Eagles coach Andy Reid is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) against a team that allows more than 350 yards a game. The Redskins are 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. The over for Washington is 6-0 (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

Here are some trends for the rest of the NFL Week 4 games:

San Francisco at Atlanta (-6): The Falcons are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Falcons coach Mike Smith is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games in the first half of the season. The 49ers are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games off an upset loss as a road favorite since 1992. San Francisco coach Mike Singletary is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.

New York Jets (-6) at Buffalo: The under for the Bills is 20-7 (+12.3 Units) after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992. The under for the Jets is 19-7 (+11.3 Units) after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992.

Cincinnati (-3) at Cleveland: The Bengals are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. And, the Bengals are 53-76 ATS (-30.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992. The Browns are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The under for the Browns is 6-0 (+6.0 Units) off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons.

Detroit at Green Bay (-14): The Lions are 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games after a loss by 14 or more points since 1992. The under for the Lions is 18-6 (+11.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992. The over for the Packers is 117-87 (+21.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992. And, the over for the Packers is is 30-16 (+12.4 Units) in home games off a road loss since 1992.

Indianapolis (-7) at Jacksonville: Colts coach Jim Caldwell is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins. Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio is 22-33 ATS (-14.3 Units) after playing a game at home. The Colts are 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons. And, the Colts are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points since 1992.

Carolina at New Orleans (-13): The Panthers are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. The under for the Panthers is 38-22 (+13.8 Units) in October games since 1992. Carolina coach John Fox is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points. The Saints are 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games after playing a game at home since 1992. As a home favorite since 1992, the Saints are 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units). The over for Saints coach Sean Payton is 17-6 (+10.4 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games.

Chicago at New York Giants (-3): The under for the Bears is 9-2 (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Giants coach Tom Coughlin is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games against NFC North division opponents. The over for the Giants is 11-2 (+8.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Bears coach Lovie Smith is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games against a team that gains more than 7 yards per passing attempt.

Houston (-3) at Oakland: The over for Oakland coach Tom Cable is 6-0 (+6.0 Units) against an excellent ball control team that has 32 or more minutes a game of time possession. The under for Cable is 8-1 (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3. The under for the Texans is 12-1 (+10.9 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games since 1992. The over for Texans coach Gary Kubiak is 10-2 (+7.8 Units) after a loss by 14 or more points. Oakland is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-2 ½): Baltimore coach John Harbaugh is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field. The Steelers are 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in all games where the total is 35 or less since 1992. The over for Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is 6-0 (+6.0 Units) against a team that averages less than 3.5 rushing yards a carry.

Arizona at San Diego (-8 ½): The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons. Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs. The over for Whisenhunt is 19-9 (+9.1 Units) as an underdog. Chargers coach Norv Turner is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) against a team with poor ball control, that has .less than 28 minutes possession in all games he has coached since 1992. The over for Turner is 11-3 (+7.7 Units) in the first month of the season.

Seattle (-2) at St. Louis: The Seahawks are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) off a home win over the last 3 seasons. The over for Seattle is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) off an upset win as a home underdog since 1992. Seattle is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons. The Rams are 51-74 ATS (-30.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Denver at Tennessee (-6 ½): The Broncos are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after gaining 500 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. The over for the Broncos is 43-26 (+14.4 Units) after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. Titans coach Jeff Fisher is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7. The over for Fisher is 21-8 (+12.2 Units) after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game. And, the over for Fisher is 48-30 (+15.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record.

New England (-1) at Miami: The under for Patriots coach Bill Belichick is 19-9 (+9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread. Belichick is 37-26 ATS (+8.4 Units) off a division game. Belichick is 40-25 ATS (+12.5 Units) versus division opponents. He also is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games. The under for the Dolphins is 47-29 (+15.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992. Dolphins coach Tony Sparano is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in home games.

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Posted by on Oct 2 2010. Filed under Sports Handicapping. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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